Jason WX Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 This has the potential to be the real "coastal crusher" of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Nams really meh... gotta be up around Kingston or higher to see anything more than a dusting to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, pazzo83 said: I mean, this is true - but it still becomes an issue. It's not like 20" in March is typical. Around 3/15 onward is when you need heavy intensity during the day for snow to stick due to sun angle on LI and NYC area. Regardless, that sun angle issue will come up year after year that come 3/1 the sun is our enemy for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: All we need is the perfectly timed phase that the OP is showing and we'll be good to go. If this phases and goes to the BM, I would think this storm has HECS potential. Second analog is the blizzard of 1978. That's some serious potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 apparently Mt. Holly is discounting the chance of any storm next week - also they can't seem to be able to develop their own forecasts they have to follow WPC. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND APPROACHING OUR AREA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN HOW THEY REACT TO THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH THE GFS ABSORBING IT INTO THE LOW ALREADY LOCATED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER LOW NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND STRENGTHENS THE TWO AS THEY COMBINE OFF THE COAST THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS THIS LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, BUT NOT UNTIL 12 HOURS LATER. REGARDLESS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE PRECIPITATION STARTS EARLY ENOUGH, IT WILL BEGIN AS SNOW FOR MOST PLACES, THEN POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGED WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE YESTERDAY, SO WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO, WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO WPC DURING THIS PERIOD. MONDAY MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. TUESDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEDNESDAY PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. THURSDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. FRIDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Not that it really matters at D6, but would have thought a sub-980 right off LI would have produced more QPF than it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Heh, I'm too young to remember it personally (barely), but not very long ago I was treated to some pictures taken right after that '78 blizzard. The photos were taken not very far from where I am now. I had heard stories, but those are the first photos I recall seeing of my local area out here from that storm. All I can say is, they were digging down in order to get to the car. Likely due to drifting, but still. The top of the antenna was all that was visible in one photo. I believe that even had a period of rain here as well early on if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 50 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Not that it really matters at D6, but would have thought a sub-980 right off LI would have produced more QPF than it did. QPF isn't important right now, the overall setup and pattern for a storm is what we should look at. That's a great look for some kind of storm to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Heh, I'm too young to remember it personally (barely), but not very long ago I was treated to some pictures taken right after that '78 blizzard. The photos were taken not very far from where I am now. I had heard stories, but those are the first photos I recall seeing of my local area out here from that storm. All I can say is, they were digging down in order to get to the car. Likely due to drifting, but still. The top of the antenna was all that was visible in one photo. I believe that even had a period of rain here as well early on if I'm not mistaken. Heh...the whole LIE was closed down(days dont remember) we didn't have school for a full week, just remember it did'nt stop snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Be wary of model waffling or as Rayno calls it the wiper effect the next few days. I am not going to react either way yet to individual model run variation unless a clear trend emerges to influence confidence direction by Monday. Expect a lot of model solution divergence the next few days as we already see differences between the Euro and GFS. A lot of attention will understandably go to the European as it handles southern stream systems better (be wary of usual bias of holding energy back). Timing is everything for all the pieces to come together (SW energy, leading wave, trough axis). If they do, then I am convinced this will be a storm for the ages given the synoptic setup and blocking parameters (+PNA, -AO, -NAO rising). MJO also forcasted to be in the favorable phase 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 If the Thursday storm threat is real then the other models should start picking up on it in the next 24-48 hours, its good to see the Euro showing it but it is also not quite the superior model it used to be so proceed with caution. At least the pattern in that time frame does support what the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Wind advisories or high wind warnings possible on Mon as the low bombs out east of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Clipper looks further south than modeled on the radar. Watch for some snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 45 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Clipper looks further south than modeled on the radar. Watch for some snow tonight. I have had radar echoes over me for over an hour now and nothing is falling. Seems to be a lot of virga right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Lightly snowing in new Windsor and wallkill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I have had radar echoes over me for over an hour now and nothing is falling. Seems to be a lot of virga right now. put on the hide clutter mode and you will see why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Flurries flying around. 24F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: put on the hide clutter mode and you will see why I can't seem to find that setting anywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I can't seem to find that setting anywhere! You can do it on the NEXRAD Radar on Weather Underground. That's the only place I'm aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Very light snow falling here at West Point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 5 hours ago, EasternLI said: Heh, I'm too young to remember it personally (barely), but not very long ago I was treated to some pictures taken right after that '78 blizzard. The photos were taken not very far from where I am now. I had heard stories, but those are the first photos I recall seeing of my local area out here from that storm. All I can say is, they were digging down in order to get to the car. Likely due to drifting, but still. The top of the antenna was all that was visible in one photo. I believe that even had a period of rain here as well early on if I'm not mistaken. If you or whoever is the proper owner wouldn't mind sharing them, I'd love to add them to my 2/78 page: http://www.northshorewx.com/19780207.asp I doubt very much there was any rain in Riverhead. A coastal front affected parts of the south shore out to Montauk overnight, but that was transient and I think just resulted in a wetter snow for a time. Possibly some rain could have mixed at Montauk, but there is no evidence of it. The north shore was basically low - mid 20's during the storm. The other big northeast snow storm that winter 1/20/78, ended as a light frozen mix, but started as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Steady light snow now falling, should coat ground no problem soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 May overperform in some spots up here relative to radar echos... snowing nicely back home, with steady light snkwnat WP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Steady snow continues here at West Point and back home... ground covered back home... not here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: If you or whoever is the proper owner wouldn't mind sharing them, I'd love to add them to my 2/78 page: http://www.northshorewx.com/19780207.asp I doubt very much there was any rain in Riverhead. A coastal front affected parts of the south shore out to Montauk overnight, but that was transient and I think just resulted in a wetter snow for a time. Possibly some rain could have mixed at Montauk, but there is no evidence of it. The north shore was basically low - mid 20's during the storm. The other big northeast snow storm that winter 1/20/78, ended as a light frozen mix, but started as snow. OT, but love your website. I had stumbled across it years before I even found this board while I was looking up different types of local maple trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 34 minutes ago, tdp146 said: OT, but love your website. I had stumbled across it years before I even found this board while I was looking up different types of local maple trees. Thanks. I love that maple article; I was so into writing it. It's been referenced and copied and "re-used" hundreds of times. Too bad I don't get paid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Had some flurries here earlier; enough to dust the cars (barely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Had some flurries here earlier; enough to dust the cars (barely). About the same here in wantagh. Enough for a trace but not more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 FYI, Denver had a high temperature of 80° yesterday. That beat the old record of 71° from 1951 and was that city's earliest 80° reading on record. The previous earliest such reading occurred on 3/16/2015 when the temperature hit 81°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Good returns coming in snow has began here in the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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