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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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2 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

I mean, this is true - but it still becomes an issue.

It's not like 20" in March is typical.

Around 3/15 onward is when you need heavy intensity during the day for snow to stick due to sun angle on LI and NYC area.  Regardless, that sun angle issue will come up year after year that come 3/1 the sun is our enemy for snow.

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apparently Mt. Holly is discounting the chance of any storm next week - also they can't seem to be able to develop their own forecasts they have to follow WPC.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS  
FORECAST TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND  
APPROACHING OUR AREA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN HOW THEY  
REACT TO THE LOW AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH THE GFS ABSORBING IT  
INTO THE LOW ALREADY LOCATED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE  
ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER LOW NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND  
STRENGTHENS THE TWO AS THEY COMBINE OFF THE COAST THEN MOVE  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS  
THIS LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, BUT NOT UNTIL 12 HOURS LATER.  
REGARDLESS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE  
AREA. IF THE PRECIPITATION STARTS EARLY ENOUGH, IT WILL BEGIN AS  
SNOW FOR MOST PLACES, THEN POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN  
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGED WITH THE MODEL  
GUIDANCE SINCE YESTERDAY, SO WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AND  
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO, WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO WPC  
DURING THIS PERIOD.  

MONDAY  
MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
   
MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING
 
THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
   
TUESDAY
 
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
   
WEDNESDAY
 
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
   
THURSDAY
 
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
   
FRIDAY
 
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.   

 

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Heh, I'm too young to remember it personally (barely), but not very long ago I was treated to some pictures taken right after that '78 blizzard. The photos were taken not very far from where I am now. I had heard stories, but those are the first photos I recall seeing of my local area out here from that storm. All I can say is, they were digging down in order to get to the car. Likely due to drifting, but still. The top of the antenna was all that was visible in one photo. I believe that even had a period of rain here as well early on if I'm not mistaken.

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50 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Not that it really matters at D6, but would have thought a sub-980 right off LI would have produced more QPF than it did.

QPF isn't important right now, the overall setup and pattern for a storm is what we should look at. That's a great look for some kind of storm to show up. 

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20 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Heh, I'm too young to remember it personally (barely), but not very long ago I was treated to some pictures taken right after that '78 blizzard. The photos were taken not very far from where I am now. I had heard stories, but those are the first photos I recall seeing of my local area out here from that storm. All I can say is, they were digging down in order to get to the car. Likely due to drifting, but still. The top of the antenna was all that was visible in one photo. I believe that even had a period of rain here as well early on if I'm not mistaken.

Heh...the whole LIE was closed down(days dont remember) we didn't have school for a full week, just remember it did'nt stop snowing

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Be wary of model waffling or as Rayno calls it the wiper effect the next few days.  I am not going to react either way yet to individual model run variation unless a clear trend emerges to influence confidence direction by Monday.  Expect a lot of model solution divergence the next few days as we already see differences between the Euro and GFS.  A lot of attention will understandably go to the European as it handles southern stream systems better (be wary of usual bias of holding energy back). Timing is everything for all the pieces to come together (SW energy, leading wave, trough axis).  If they do, then I am convinced this will be a storm for the ages given the synoptic setup and blocking parameters (+PNA, -AO, -NAO rising). MJO also forcasted to be in the favorable phase 8.

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5 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Heh, I'm too young to remember it personally (barely), but not very long ago I was treated to some pictures taken right after that '78 blizzard. The photos were taken not very far from where I am now. I had heard stories, but those are the first photos I recall seeing of my local area out here from that storm. All I can say is, they were digging down in order to get to the car. Likely due to drifting, but still. The top of the antenna was all that was visible in one photo. I believe that even had a period of rain here as well early on if I'm not mistaken.

If you or whoever is the proper owner wouldn't mind sharing them, I'd love to add them to my 2/78 page:

http://www.northshorewx.com/19780207.asp

I doubt very much there was any rain in Riverhead.  A coastal front affected parts of the south shore out to Montauk overnight, but that was transient and I think just resulted in a wetter snow for a time.  Possibly some rain could have mixed at Montauk, but there is no evidence of it.  The north shore was basically low - mid 20's during the storm.

The other big northeast snow storm that winter 1/20/78, ended as a light frozen mix, but started as snow.

 

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

If you or whoever is the proper owner wouldn't mind sharing them, I'd love to add them to my 2/78 page:

http://www.northshorewx.com/19780207.asp

I doubt very much there was any rain in Riverhead.  A coastal front affected parts of the south shore out to Montauk overnight, but that was transient and I think just resulted in a wetter snow for a time.  Possibly some rain could have mixed at Montauk, but there is no evidence of it.  The north shore was basically low - mid 20's during the storm.

The other big northeast snow storm that winter 1/20/78, ended as a light frozen mix, but started as snow.

 

OT, but love your website.  I had stumbled across it years before I even found this board while I was looking up different types of local maple trees. 

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34 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

OT, but love your website.  I had stumbled across it years before I even found this board while I was looking up different types of local maple trees. 

Thanks.  I love that maple article; I was so into writing it.  It's been referenced and copied and "re-used" hundreds  of times.  Too bad I don't get paid :)

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