snowman19 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it looks like that deep trough coming into the West next weekend moves east for the end of February and beginning of March. But the details will have to wait since the wavelengths are changing so rapidly over the next few weeks. I mentioned it just before but besides the wavelengths, come March 1st, sun angle, length of day and climatology become real issues for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I mentioned it just before but besides the wavelengths, come March 1st, sun angle, length of day and climatology become real issues for us Yes that's true but we can still see big snowstorms in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Bottomed out at 19 shortly before midnight, temp started slowly rising afterwards. My low for this morning is 20, which occurred right around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 15 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Does this setup hold any potential? It looks vaguely close to something interesting but I'm not sure what would need to change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Strong signal for a big storm next week. 12z gfs moved a step closer to phasing the streams. Teleconnections line up perfectly with massive PNA spike, AO plunge, and NAO transition around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The storm forecasted to bomb out in the GOM Monday might screw up the possibility of the late week system. Not sure it can get out of the way in time and allow for the amplification of the second storm. The Euro is the only model showing anything and I think its off shore too much to really affect us in a meaningful way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Cfa said: Bottomed out at 19 shortly before midnight, temp started slowly rising afterwards. My low for this morning is 20, which occurred right around midnight. Same in the Park, but they got to 19 again after midnight between obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Does this setup hold any potential? It looks vaguely close to something interesting but I'm not sure what would need to change... Need more interaction between that southern vort and northern vort.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Need more interaction between that southern vort and northern vort. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Well, yeah, but I don't know how to accomplish that. Open up the southwest ULL earlier? Higher heights off the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: I mentioned it just before but besides the wavelengths, come March 1st, sun angle, length of day and climatology become real issues for us Stop, you've said this a million times. NYC had 20" on the ground on March 8, 2015. DC had three 4"+events in March 2014. Enough evidence to shut you up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Snowfall to date Knyc 20.5 Kjfk 23.3 Klga 23.1 Kewr 20.5 Kbdr 27.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, nzucker said: Stop, you've said this a million times. NYC had 20" on the ground on March 8, 2015. DC had three 4"+events in March 2014. Enough evidence to shut you up? I mean, this is true - but it still becomes an issue. It's not like 20" in March is typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 To wit, by March 16th, the avg high in NYC hits 50F. That's comparable to a typical mid January day in Marietta, GA. So yes - it CAN snow at that time of year, but there is a whole host of things working against us by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: To wit, by March 16th, the avg high in NYC hits 50F. That's comparable to a typical mid January day in Marietta, GA. So yes - it CAN snow at that time of year, but there is a whole host of things working against us by then. We only snow in troughs, which bring below average temperatures anyway...when there's a trough in March, it's still cold enough to snow. The real issue becomes when it's no longer cold enough to snow in a trough, which is around 4/10 generally. The Marietta example is not completely relevant because storm track and SSTs are totally different there. Hard to get a strong Nor'easter at that latitude, the type of storm that brings us most of our March snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, nzucker said: We only snow in troughs, which bring below average temperatures anyway...when there's a trough in March, it's still cold enough to snow. The real issue becomes when it's no longer cold enough to snow in a trough, which is around 4/10 generally. The Marietta example is not completely relevant because storm track and SSTs are totally different there. Hard to get a strong Nor'easter at that latitude, the type of storm that brings us most of our March snows. Agreed, but you need higher intensity of snowfall to overcome just the sun angle. I'm sure you remember the crazy March 2010 NorEaster that wrecked Long Island. I was living in Philly at the time, and we actually got snow from that. It was pretty heavy during the day, but basically nothing was sticking until sundown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 29 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Agreed, but you need higher intensity of snowfall to overcome just the sun angle. I'm sure you remember the crazy March 2010 NorEaster that wrecked Long Island. I was living in Philly at the time, and we actually got snow from that. It was pretty heavy during the day, but basically nothing was sticking until sundown. That Nor'easter was really bad in Westchester, damaged a lot of trees. I think it was like 3/14/10, right after we had 26" of snow on 2/26/10 in Dobbs Ferry. I was in college in VT for the 3/10 event, though. I didn't come home because I already drove home for 2/10 and 2/26...we got 13" and 26" in those too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Snowfall to date Knyc 20.5 Kjfk 23.3 Klga 23.1 Kewr 20.5 Kbdr 27.3 Parts of Suffolk are already over 30" on the season. ISP is 31.5" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The Euro has a nuke next Thrusday. Gorgeous setup at H5. 972mb just E of the BM, 968mb over SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro has a nuke next Thrusday. Gorgeous setup at H5. 972mb just E of the BM, 968mb over SE MA. How much snow did it have for the area? Sounds like a lot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro has a nuke next Thrusday. Gorgeous setup at H5. 972mb just E of the BM, 968mb over SE MA. Huge potential with this if everything plays out well. Plenty of time to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Surprised not more discussion on that Euro run. Bombing 970 low southeast of Montalk would presumably demolish the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 It we do get a storm next Thurs, would it be slower than the one we just had? NAO- at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, HeinzGuy said: How much snow did it have for the area? Sounds like a lot... QPF is very uniform with EWR, HPN, ISP, NYC, and POU all receiving around 0.90". BDR is a shade less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 a 972 Southeast of Montauk - Shouldn't the snow total be far greater? NOT comparing storms by any means, but 1978 and 1888 (of course not comparing) had similar positions. Is it moving fast on the EURO? Does it come up from the south or is it a Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 next week the ao is forecast to be its lowest point of the season...we just had a storm when the ao finally went negative...many years had a snowstorm or arctic cold around the lowest ao date...give or take a week...we already got a good storm and we could see another one soon...If March has a stronger neg ao there might be a storm then also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, uncle W said: next week the ao is forecast to be its lowest point of the season...we just had a storm when the ao finally went negative...many years had a snowstorm or arctic cold around the lowest ao date...give or take a week...we already got a good storm and we could see another one soon...If March has a stronger neg ao there might be a storm then also... A strong met on Twitter called this set up for Thursday a loaded gun. Big picture : potential is there and with that -NAO this would be highly interesting to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: A strong met on Twitter called this set up for Thursday a loaded gun. Big picture : potential is there and with that -NAO this would be highly interesting to say the least does he lift weights and wrestle?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: If the Euro phase verifies, then it would be a slower moving system since it closes off at 500 mb. That pattern is screaming major east coast storm. Look at that blocking south of the Davis Straights . Whether we get a bomb remains to be seen, but this is by far our best shot this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 24 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: A strong met on Twitter called this set up for Thursday a loaded gun. Big picture : potential is there and with that -NAO this would be highly interesting to say the least Sounds like JB to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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