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February 2017 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it looks like that deep trough coming into the West next weekend moves east for the end of February and beginning of March.

But the details will have to wait since the wavelengths are changing so rapidly over the next few weeks.

I mentioned it just before but besides the wavelengths, come March 1st, sun angle, length of day and climatology become real issues for us

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The storm forecasted to bomb out in the GOM Monday might screw up the possibility of the late week system. Not sure it can get out of the way in time and allow for the amplification of the second storm.

 

The Euro is the only model showing anything and I think its off shore too much to really affect us in a meaningful way.

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I mentioned it just before but besides the wavelengths, come March 1st, sun angle, length of day and climatology become real issues for us

Stop, you've said this a million times.

NYC had 20" on the ground on March 8, 2015.

DC had three 4"+events in March 2014.

Enough evidence to shut you up?

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1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

To wit, by March 16th, the avg high in NYC hits 50F.  That's comparable to a typical mid January day in Marietta, GA.  So yes - it CAN snow at that time of year, but there is a whole host of things working against us by then.

We only snow in troughs, which bring below average temperatures anyway...when there's a trough in March, it's still cold enough to snow. The real issue becomes when it's no longer cold enough to snow in a trough, which is around 4/10 generally. 

The Marietta example is not completely relevant because storm track and SSTs are totally different there. Hard to get a strong Nor'easter at that latitude, the type of storm that brings us most of our March snows.

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4 minutes ago, nzucker said:

We only snow in troughs, which bring below average temperatures anyway...when there's a trough in March, it's still cold enough to snow. The real issue becomes when it's no longer cold enough to snow in a trough, which is around 4/10 generally. 

The Marietta example is not completely relevant because storm track and SSTs are totally different there. Hard to get a strong Nor'easter at that latitude, the type of storm that brings us most of our March snows.

Agreed, but you need higher intensity of snowfall to overcome just the sun angle.

I'm sure you remember the crazy March 2010 NorEaster that wrecked Long Island.  I was living in Philly at the time, and we actually got snow from that.  It was pretty heavy during the day, but basically nothing was sticking until sundown.

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29 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Agreed, but you need higher intensity of snowfall to overcome just the sun angle.

I'm sure you remember the crazy March 2010 NorEaster that wrecked Long Island.  I was living in Philly at the time, and we actually got snow from that.  It was pretty heavy during the day, but basically nothing was sticking until sundown.

That Nor'easter was really bad in Westchester, damaged a lot of trees. I think it was like 3/14/10, right after we had 26" of snow on 2/26/10 in Dobbs Ferry. 

I was in college in VT for the 3/10 event, though. I didn't come home because I already drove home for 2/10 and 2/26...we got 13" and 26" in those too.

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next week the ao is forecast to be its lowest point of the season...we just had a storm when the ao finally went negative...many years had a snowstorm or arctic cold around the lowest ao date...give or take a week...we already got a good storm and we could see another one soon...If March has a stronger neg ao there might be a storm then also...

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9 minutes ago, uncle W said:

next week the ao is forecast to be its lowest point of the season...we just had a storm when the ao finally went negative...many years had a snowstorm or arctic cold around the lowest ao date...give or take a week...we already got a good storm and we could see another one soon...If March has a stronger neg ao there might be a storm then also...

A strong met on Twitter called this set up for Thursday a loaded gun. Big picture : potential is there and with that -NAO this would be highly interesting to say the least

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the Euro phase verifies, then it would be a slower moving system since it closes off at 500 mb.

ecmwf_z500a_nh_25.png

 

 

That pattern is screaming major east coast storm.   Look at that blocking south of the Davis Straights .  Whether we get a bomb remains to be seen, but this is by far our best shot this winter. 

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