Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 cheap midnight high of 52 in the city. That's amazing for February to still see it in the low to mid 50's around midnight with clear sky conditions (Vs a cutter or something else that would keep temsp high) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 12:39 PM, Brian5671 said: cheap midnight high of 52 in the city. That's amazing for February to still see it in the low to mid 50's around midnight with clear sky conditions (Vs a cutter or something else that would keep temsp high) Expand The 53 min yesterday in NYC came very close to the all time warmest min for the month of February of 55 degrees set in 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Oh Jolly, so my March 13th date for the last winter storm of the season is still in play....... also March 22nd for the start of the 80+ torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 12:52 PM, bluewave said: The 53 min yesterday in NYC came very close to the all time warmest min for the month of February of 55 degrees set in 1985. Expand That's probably a +30 day or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 12:09 PM, bluewave said: The last run of the weeklies had above normal temps through March 5-6th. But the week 3 had temps closer to or below normal March 7-13. You can see the latest EPS run trying to go to a change to near or below normal temps around March 7th. Yes the earliest 80's on record in March. Expand Thanks BW- was that the earliest 80 on record for just EWR or also for NYC, LGA and JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Next 8 days, including today, to be +11 to +12deg. ( 49 vs. 38 ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 1:02 PM, Brian5671 said: That's probably a +30 day or something like that. Expand Close. It came out to a +23 for NYC and 2nd to the +25 on Jan 12th. On 2/20/2017 at 1:04 PM, Paragon said: Thanks BW- was that the earliest 80 on record for just EWR or also for NYC, LGA and JFK? Expand Just for Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 5:50 AM, pazzo83 said: We hit 90 yesterday in Austin, low 80s today with dews in the 70s. Really weird. We have a Tornado Warning now - should be interesting. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Just heard this and it's pretty surprising- Chicago has had no snow now in 65 consecutive days- new record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 1:32 PM, Paragon said: Just heard this and it's pretty surprising- Chicago has had no snow now in 65 consecutive days- new record! Expand There last measureable was .6 of an inch on 12/16-the record will continue to grow...nothing in sight out there for the foreseeable future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 1:33 PM, Brian5671 said: There last measureable was .6 of an inch on 12/16-the record will continue to grow...nothing in sight out there for the foreseeable future Expand Ouch I can't feel bad for us after hearing a stat like that. We've been REALLY lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 1:34 PM, Paragon said: Ouch I can't feel bad for us after hearing a stat like that. We've been REALLY lucky. Expand Indeed - most are on the cusp of average snowfall here whilst Chicago is breaking records or lack of snowfall. That record is astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 1:37 PM, EastonSN+ said: Indeed - most are on the cusp of average snowfall here whilst Chicago is breaking records or lack of snowfall. That record is astounding. Expand no cutters this year out that way. Milwaukee, Detroit and Cleveland have minimal snows this year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 1:37 PM, EastonSN+ said: Indeed - most are on the cusp of average snowfall here whilst Chicago is breaking records or lack of snowfall. That record is astounding. Expand That record to me is even more amazing than the T of snowfall in Philly in 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 1:39 PM, Brian5671 said: no cutters this year out that way. Milwaukee, Detroit and Cleveland have minimal snows this year too. Expand and Minneapolis has been really warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 1:46 PM, Paragon said: and Minneapolis has been really warm too. Expand MSP going this warm during a La Nina is another odd feature of this event. Almost all the seasonal forecasts using past La Nina climo composites went cold there this winter. MSP....Feb so far...+9.4...Jan...+5.3...Dec...+1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 11:30 AM, Paragon said: Don, didn't these bloom early in 2002 also? I remember the non-growing season in 2001-02 being exceptionally short. Expand Probably. I know they bloomed during December 2006 into January 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 1:57 PM, bluewave said: MSP going this warm during a La Nina is another odd feature of this event. Almost all the seasonal forecasts using past La Nina climo composites went cold there this winter. MSP....Feb so far...+9.4...Jan...+5.3...Dec...+1.2 Expand Yeah, a lot more than ENSO has been at play this winter. I wonder if we'll see more against-the-grain temp anomalies going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 1:59 PM, donsutherland1 said: Probably. I know they bloomed during December 2006 into January 2007. Expand Well from what I remember, I had roses blooming even after Christmas in 2001 and our first freeze was close to New Years. Then we had crocuses (croci?) blooming in late February again lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 2:11 PM, Paragon said: Yeah, a lot more than ENSO has been at play this winter. I wonder if we'll see more against-the-grain temp anomalies going forward. Expand I believe the only warmer La Nina winter for MSP was 2011-2012. So the big story for this La Nina winter will be the extreme precip further south than normal for a La Nina in California along with the record warmth across many parts of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 2:14 PM, bluewave said: I believe the only warmer La Nina winter for MSP was 2011-2012. So the big story for this La Nina will be the extreme precip further south than normal for a La Nina in California along with the record warmth across many parts of the US. Expand So this is more of a recent thing then. But did MSP have anything like those big +9.4 Feb anomalies that year that they have this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Despite the likely peak in the late February warmth later this week (possibly with temperatures approaching or reaching 70° at EWR), the overall pattern continues to evolve in a fashion consistent with past late February AO+/PNA+ regimes. The PNA is headed negative, which should amplify the warmth in the Wednesday-Saturday period. The AO will drift lower in the extended range and possibly go negative. Therefore, even as the exceptional warmth will ease, temperatures through the middle of the first week of March may not be all that cold. Afterward, there remains the potential that the second week of March could be colder than normal. Most La Niña winters feature some measurable snowfall, so the narrow timeframe from the middle of the first week of March through the second week of March could provide a decent window of opportunity. Finally, considering the predominant state of the teleconnections this winter, the cold period might not last more than 7-10 days. The latter half of March could experience a warming trend that returns readings to above normal levels. As for the month as a whole, a warmer than normal outcome seems more likely than a colder than normal one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 2:17 PM, donsutherland1 said: Despite the likely peak in the late February warmth later this week (possibly with temperatures approaching or reaching 70° at EWR), the overall pattern continues to evolve in a fashion consistent with past late February AO+/PNA+ regimes. The PNA is headed negative, which should amplify the warmth in the Wednesday-Saturday period. The AO will drift lower in the extended range and possibly go negative. Therefore, even as the exceptional warmth will ease, temperatures through the middle of the first week of March may not be all that cold. Afterward, there remains the potential that the second week of March could be colder than normal. Most La Niña winters feature some measurable snowfall, so the narrow timeframe from the middle of the first week of March through the second week of March could provide a decent window of opportunity. Finally, considering the predominant state of the teleconnections this winter, the cold period might not last more than 7-10 days. The latter half of March could experience a warming trend that returns readings to above normal levels. As for the month as a whole, a warmer than normal outcome seems more likely than a colder than normal one. Expand March 13th for last snowfall and March 22nd for the resumption of the torch- remember those dates ;-) Also, Don do you think the warmth on Thursday could surpass what we had here on Sunday- even for places like JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 2:16 PM, Paragon said: So this is more of a recent thing then. But did MSP have anything like those big +9.4 Feb anomalies that year that they have this year? Expand The December-February 2011-12 anomalies were very warm, but not as warm as those during the current winter at MSP. They were as follows: December: +9.1°; January: +7.7°' and, February: +6.9°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 2:24 PM, donsutherland1 said: The December-February 2011-12 anomalies were very warm, but not as warm as those during the current winter at MSP. They were as follows: December: +9.1°; January: +7.7°' and, February: +6.9°. Expand Wow very warm! That was the year when the Midwest torched in March I think- record warm Spring for them. We had something similar December 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 2:16 PM, Paragon said: So this is more of a recent thing then. But did MSP have anything like those big +9.4 Feb anomalies that year that they have this year? Expand This February will beat Feb 12 there. But the rest of the DJFM 12 months were ahead of this year. MSP DJFM 11-12 Dec...+9.1 Jan....+7.7 Feb...+6.9 Mar....+15.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 2:28 PM, bluewave said: This February will beat Feb 12 there. But the rest of the DJFM 12 months were ahead of this year. MSP DJFM 11-12 Dec...+9.1 Jan....+7.7 Feb...+6.9 Mar....+15.5 Expand Yep I figured because I remember that was an amazingly hot spring for that region- their March 2012 was like our December 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 2:24 PM, Paragon said: March 13th for last snowfall and March 22nd for the resumption of the torch- remember those dates ;-) Also, Don do you think the warmth on Thursday could surpass what we had here on Sunday- even for places like JFK? Expand I believe the potential exists that the warmth on Thursday could surpass yesterday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 2:29 PM, donsutherland1 said: I believe the potential exists that the warmth on Thursday could surpass yesterday's. Expand Good so no onshore winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 On 2/20/2017 at 2:29 PM, Paragon said: Yep I figured because I remember that was an amazingly hot spring for that region- their March 2012 was like our December 2015 Expand I guess you could also add the weak 05-06 La Nina to the list for the record January warmth. MSP Jan 06....+15.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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