TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: yes its a graze for western and northern areas - WWA snows possible for Eastern NJ NYC and LI similar to January 7th event in many areas if the consistent GFS verifies - waiting for the GEFS to see if it has as much precip as the 12Z run Jan 7th was much more potent ....and I'd bet good money they aren't as robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 ILl take my chances look at the GEFS precip that's gotta be all snow for thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: ILl take my chances look at the GEFS precip that's gotta be all snow for thursday That's not 18z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: That's not 18z gefs You're right 18z is even better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: You're right 18z is even better than 12z Looks like it trimmed back and tightened up a bit... especially on the north side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Jan 7th was much more potent ....and I'd bet good money they aren't as robust 18Z are more rubust then 12Z - and if this verifies will be just as potent in NYC Metro as January 7th - only question is how much of this will be snow and where as the colder air will not be established throughout the area before the precip arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 12Z GFS Para Coming in stronger then GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 Nams a weak scraper, and rain for that matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Ok well we obviously need a strong GFS run because this football game sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nams a weak scraper, and rain for that matter Nam at long range always reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Nam at long range always reliable Yea cause the GFS para hits home runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea cause the GFS para hits home runs this is all about timing - where the second wave forms along the front - where the front is when it forms and interaction of the streams - won't know for sure till Tuesdays storm gets into southeast Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Did anyone look at the 18Z para NAM at 84. That's worth a laugh lol yea 0z para Nam is huge interior snowstorm, rain up to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: this is all about timing - where the second wave forms along the front - where the front is when it forms and interaction of the streams - won't know for sure till Tuesdays storm gets into southeast Canada I'm well aware of what needs to happen, I just think your ignoring the pattern in favor of a model or 2 showing a storm... your banking on a storm developing on a boundary, with northern stream interaction to blow this up in a progressive flow...the jets screaming, again, my opinion on the pattern and what I think, but this is not a favorable set-up, I've said for days this is 2-3" for Long Island at best...also with absolutely no Block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS looks more amped through 72. 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS is 997 off jersey coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Jesus... paste bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS is 997 off jersey coast wow @ hr 84 on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 Still don't buy it, but crazier things have happened... GFS crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 0Z GFS Stronger closer to coast heavy snow NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, snywx said: wow @ hr 84 on the GFS Whole board crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 Welp there certainly wouldn't be any location bickering, GFS dumps about 8-12" on everyone in the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Oh hello there sir. Verbatim maybe no school Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, NortheastPAWx said: Oh hello there sir. Verbatim maybe no school Thursday... The way the GFS has been this year, I need more guidance on board... tomorrow evenings Nam, or Tuesday/wed RGEM... or if euro folds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The way the GFS has been this year, I need more guidance on board... tomorrow evenings Nam, or Tuesday/wed RGEM... or if euro folds Oh don't get me wrong, I have zero confidence in that being the final solution. Just pointing out what it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: Oh don't get me wrong, I have zero confidence in that being the final solution. Just pointing out what it showed. I doubt if the 0Z will produce 8 -12 inches of snow region wide - these situations where the cold air is arriving the same time as the precip is risky - expect liquid at the beginning to cut down on the snow totals from I - 78 or 80 south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, NEG NAO said: I doubt if the 0Z will produce 8 -12 inches of snow region wide - these situations where the cold air is arriving the same time as the precip is risky - expect liquid at the beginning to cut down on the snow totals from I - 78 or 80 south and east Verbatim I'd definitely be concerned on the coast nonetheless. But again, we know the GFS will be wrong anyway so no use microanalyzing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Whole board crushed. North trend is legit.. Nice event "if" it actually happens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Verbatim I'd definitely be concerned on the coast nonetheless. But again, we know the GFS will be wrong anyway so no use microanalyzing it. GFS hasn't been doing bad this winter. The Euro on the other hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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