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February Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

yes its a graze for western and northern areas - WWA snows possible for Eastern NJ NYC and LI  similar to January 7th event in many areas if the consistent GFS  verifies - waiting for the GEFS to see if it has as much precip as the 12Z run

Jan 7th was much more potent ....and I'd bet good money they aren't as robust 

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1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Jan 7th was much more potent ....and I'd bet good money they aren't as robust 

18Z are more rubust then 12Z  - and if this verifies will be just as potent in NYC Metro as January 7th - only question is how much of this will be snow and where as the colder air will not be established throughout the area before the precip arrives

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_14.png

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Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Yea cause the GFS para hits home runs 

this is all about timing - where the second wave forms along the front - where the front is when it forms and interaction of the streams - won't know for sure till Tuesdays storm gets into southeast Canada

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5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

this is all about timing - where the second wave forms along the front - where the front is when it forms and interaction of the streams - won't know for sure till Tuesdays storm gets into southeast Canada

I'm well aware of what needs to happen, I just think your ignoring the pattern in favor of a model or 2 showing a storm... your banking on a storm developing on a boundary, with northern stream interaction to blow this up in a progressive flow...the jets screaming, again, my opinion on the pattern and what I think, but this is not a favorable set-up, I've said for days this is 2-3" for Long Island at best...also with absolutely no Block 

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1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Oh don't get me wrong, I have zero confidence in that being the final solution. Just pointing out what it showed.

I doubt if the 0Z will produce 8 -12 inches of snow region wide - these situations where the cold air is arriving the same time as the precip is risky - expect liquid at the beginning to cut down on the snow totals from I - 78 or 80 south and east

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

I doubt if the 0Z will produce 8 -12 inches of snow region wide - these situations where the cold air is arriving the same time as the precip is risky - expect liquid at the beginning to cut down on the snow totals from I - 78 or 80 south and east

Verbatim I'd definitely be concerned on the coast nonetheless. 

But again, we know the GFS will be wrong anyway so no use microanalyzing it.

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