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February Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If you want to believe the GFS go right ahead. It's been horrific this winter. If you compare the upper level winds on the new 12z GFS to the 0z GFS they've gotten stronger. This is a progressive pattern with fast flow and no Atlantic blocking. I'm willing to bet a lot of money the GFS is going to loose the threat

if the winds changed from 0Z to 12Z how do you know which one is more accurate ? GFS hasn't been horrific compared to the other models

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9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If you want to believe the GFS go right ahead. It's been horrific this winter. If you compare the upper level winds on the new 12z GFS to the 0z GFS they've gotten stronger. This is a progressive pattern with fast flow and no Atlantic blocking. I'm willing to bet a lot of money the GFS is going to loose the threat

Taking bets against the Nam at any time frame this season is a bad idea... especially if your gonna hug the GFS lol.... GFS is alone  currently

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

He may have meant the GEFS but I don't have them yet 

Gefs are ok... about the exact same as 06z in terms of number of hits, but to be honest, their just pretty to look at, literally useless... 06z one member had 12-18, the same 12z member is a complete miss... if the Gefs and EPS were good mid/long range, I'd be sitting on a 60+" snowpack, they're awful IMO, and get skewed by complete misses, and massive hits, on out to lunch members 2d7hwcj.jpg

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Taking bets against the Nam at any time frame this season is a bad idea... especially if your gonna hug the GFS lol.... GFS is alone  currently

The NAM in the last 2 weeks has started to have problems beyond 60 hours.  Up until that point it was having one of the better stretches I can remember beyond 48-60, but the last 2 notable weather sustems in the eastern US it was very bad in the longer range. 

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Taking bets against the Nam at any time frame this season is a bad idea... especially if your gonna hug the GFS lol.... GFS is alone  currently

GFS is not alone - NAVGEM is showing Thursdays and the UKMET is beginning to show it

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM in the last 2 weeks has started to have problems beyond 60 hours.  Up until that point it was having one of the better stretches I can remember beyond 48-60, but the last 2 notable weather sustems in the eastern US it was very bad in the longer range. 

Really cause the sleet storm up here, was a complete score by the nam, it schooled euro, GFS, and ggem from 84hrs out

 

the most recent system is the only 1 can think of that it hasn't been spot on

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

GFS is not alone - NAVGEM is showing Thursdays and the UKMET is beginning to show it

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

I notice we only talk about the navgem/JMA, when it shows what we want though.... both are horrendous, I'm only saying that without blocking/and a progressive flow, a quick hitting 2-4 or 3-5" along the coast is all I see that second wave amounting to, GFS showed 1 good hit, and moved toward euro with its 12z run

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I think this discussion regarding which model has been better then the other is a complete waste of time because cases can be made regarding when each one was accurate and not so accurate this winter

Well this thread IS model discussion lmao.. were discussing exactly what the threads intent was lol, model banter 

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I notice we only talk about the navgem/JMA, when it shows what we want though.... both are horrendous, I'm only saying that without blocking/and a progressive flow, a quick hitting 2-4 or 3-5" along the coast is all I see that second wave amounting to, GFS showed 1 good hit, and moved toward euro with its 12z run

once again its useless saying one model has been horrendous - for your information the JMA was probably the most consistent model forecasting the January 7th event - it continued to show the storm when most others lost it for several days

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32 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is fine . Reminds me of the anafrontal wave last February. It kept on trending stronger as we got closer. Hope this happens here.

 

would be nice if you were more specific about which storm you are talking about since there was at least a couple events last February !

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44 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro is fine . Reminds me of the anafrontal wave last February. It kept on trending stronger as we got closer. Hope this happens here.

 

00z was better though, woulda liked to see that continue, it's actually a bit weaker and south from 00z

 

city is a dusting to 1" tops

central to western LI is about 1"

and eastern Long Island about 2-3" 

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1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

You're wrong obviously the low placement was North on the 12z run so stop giving out misinformation. 

No it wasn't. The guys in the NE forum say so too. It wasn't a very good run. However, we'll see if the EPS shifts towards a more favorable solution. All of the other 12z ensembles did, so hopefully it sends the same message. 

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

No it wasn't. The guys in the NE forum say so too. It wasn't a very good run. However, we'll see if the EPS shifts towards a more favorable solution. All of the other 12z ensembles did, so hopefully it sends the same message. 

Yeah i just looked at it again you guys are right it did look better but hopefully we get some north trend we've had all year. The GFS para looked really good take a look

IMG_1486.PNG

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19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

18z GFS is still just a graze.... looks even less impressive overall.

meh

yes its a graze for western and northern areas - WWA snows possible for Eastern NJ NYC and LI  similar to January 7th event in many areas if the consistent GFS  verifies - waiting for the GEFS to see if it has as much precip as the 12Z run

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