psv88 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Still a cutter on the Euro but it does dig the trough a lot further Southeast than prior runs. This run would give us a long duration rain event with 2-3" over the far interior. Of rain or snow? thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: Of rain or snow? thanks. Total precip ranges about .9 - 2.5, interior is between 1.5-2.5" LE... kuchera ratio maps is 2-3" of snow, about .20-.40 ICP, and a bit of sleet, rest is rain NW jersey points NE into LHV see most precip, mostly rain NYC/ Long island is a general 1" precip all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: Of rain or snow? thanks. LE, but mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 This looks like it'll be interesting. The GFS has been trending the trailing energy stronger in the last couple runs. It's a longshot, but there's nothing else to look at. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: This looks like it'll be interesting. The GFS has been trending the trailing energy stronger in the last couple runs. It's a longshot, but there's nothing else to look at. 18z 12z should start a contest - which run will it disappear or turn into a cutter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 That's actually a pretty decent PNA spike on the GFS but the problem is the trough is just not digging the way we need it too over the Southeast. I think a lot of it has to do with bad timing and lack of blocking to slow things down and allow the pattern to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 3, 2017 Author Share Posted February 3, 2017 unless your about 30+ miles north of 84, you have no shot at seeing any accumulating snow, anytime soon according to latest GFS/EURO looks like our Tuesday storms DOA, even for burbs.... guidance is unanimous mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 The 18z GFS is handling the energy coming into the Pac NW a lot differently this run. I'm not sure if it's going to make a difference in the end but it's quite a significant change early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z GFS is handling the energy coming into the Pac NW a lot differently this run. I'm not sure if it's going to make a difference in the end but it's quite a significant change early on. I guess nothing changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The 00z GEFS and GEPS are starting to pick up on the wave after the cutter. GEFS GEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Nice snowstorm at hr 102 on the 6z gfs. Also there are improvements in the EPS as well later in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 Euro is very close to GFS solution, the shortwave on the euro is a tad weaker and quicker. GFS allows for some interaction with the northern stream with a slower and stronger shortwave, this could be an interesting one to watch for sure, and it may sneak up on some people over the next few suites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 06Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 AO and PNA look great moving forward Hopefully they continue to look great as we move forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 32 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 06Gefs A lot of solid hits there especially for the HV. As the saying goes it's always darkest before the dawn and it didn't get much darker than the last couple of days runs. Hopefully today is the dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 MJO still looks very solid into 8 on all the models. The models might be adjusting to the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 06Gefs I'll take e12. If we get more than that it will be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 52 minutes ago, Snow88 said: MJO still looks very solid into 8 on all the models. The models might be adjusting to the MJO. I agree other than the NAO the teleconnections look good. However one concern I have is the GEFS now has the MJO barely getting into 8 then curling back into 7. Can the MJO so that? Does the eps show the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The NAM through 84 looks more like the Euro than the GFS. That GFS run was probably too amped with the pattern being progressive but we'll see where things go today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM through 84 looks more like the Euro than the GFS. That GFS run was probably too amped with the pattern being progressive but we'll see where things go today. I was just about to say that Snowgoose. Fast, progressive flow, no -NAO block to slow it down and the GFS has been overamping shortwaves. The GFS op or ensembles are not to be trusted. Remember when it had the Super Bowl snowstorm run after run last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, snowman19 said: I was just about to say that Snowgoose. Fast, progressive flow, no -NAO block to slow it down and the GFS has been overamping shortwaves. The GFS op or ensembles are not to be trusted. Remember when it had the Super Bowl snowstorm run after run last week? At the same time though I would say the Euro based on seasonal tendency may be too far southeast. Everything has trended NW. If this system ultimately develops as advertised on the 06Z GFS and Euro I'm guessing the end solution is in between the two which would mean some sort of snow event occurs here. The 12Z NAM is doing what I usually expect it to do with the northern energy in a system such as this, it's far north and slower and so little interaction is happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: At the same time though I would say the Euro based on seasonal tendency may be too far southeast. Everything has trended NW. If this system ultimately develops as advertised on the 06Z GFS and Euro I'm guessing the end solution is in between the two which would mean some sort of snow event occurs here. The 12Z NAM is doing what I usually expect it to do with the northern energy in a system such as this, it's far north and slower and so little interaction is happening Yea the NAM is not enthused at all. It seems only the GFS is so far, we'll have to see the other 12z runs, but I do not like this event. You have the energy coming under the departing storm, racing towards the coast and I don't believe it's as strong as the GFS is showing, it keeps overamping. Again, you have no 50/50 low, no -NAO blocking and fast flow aloft in a progressive pattern. There is nothing on the Atlantic side to slow the flow down. My guess, the GFS is out to lunch again like it was for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea I'm the NAM is not enthused at all. It seems only the GFS is so far, we'll have to see the other 12z runs, but I do not like this event. You have the energy coming under the departing storm, racing towards the coast and I don't believe it's as strong as the GFS is showing, it keeps overamping. Again, you have no 50/50 low, no -NAO blocking and fast flow aloft in a progressive pattern. My guess, the GFS is out to lunch again like it was for this weekend The GFS has been insanely bad this winter and it's mostly gone overlooked because there haven't been a whole lot of snow events. It was awful on the clipper last week here, and it's worst job of all was probably the 1/6 snow and ice event in the southern US where it showed 8 inches of snow in Atlanta up until the last 12 hours when the RGEM and Euro showed a massive ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 12z GFS looks decent. Solid advisory event for the sub forum. Boundary layer temps are very marginal at best at the coast, but column above 950 looks cold enough to overcome that. I also don't think the solution should be as progressive as depicted given the massive vortex exiting stage right over eastern Quebec. At least this is something to track finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS has been abysmal all winter long Something to watch: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS has been abysmal all winter long It's been decent with temperature anomalies inside of 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Canadian still wants no part of it although it did make a move this run towards the GFS and Euro. The UKMET at 72 looks like it might go big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Shouldn't be using the NAM for Thursdays storm - past 60 hours. Have to go with the most consistent model so far the GFS - remember a few days ago the GFS showed the follow up wave then lost it which it is famous for - only to bring it back a few days prior to the event. The Euro has had a southeast bias for east coast systems all winter - remember January 7th ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Shouldn't be using the NAM for Thursdays storm - past 60 hours. Have to go with the most consistent model so far the GFS - remember a few days ago the GFS showed the follow up wave then lost it which it is famous for - only to bring it back a few days prior to the event. The Euro has had a southeast bias for east coast systems all winter - remember January 7th ? If you want to believe the GFS go right ahead. It's been horrific this winter. If you compare the upper level winds on the new 12z GFS to the 0z GFS they've gotten stronger. This is a progressive pattern with fast flow and no Atlantic blocking. I'm willing to bet a lot of money the GFS is going to loose the threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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