UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 35 minutes ago, ag3 said: It's remarkable to me that with this record breaking heat that JFK, ISP, BDR and other parts of the coast has more snow, relative to average, then north and west areas. Very unusual winter so far. How far north and west? lol I'm sitting at 29" and most people up here are between 22-30", I'm just about half of my average, are those NYC locations already above average for snowfall? sullivan and northern Ulster are over 45" of snow for the season, so I disagree mostly everyone up here is within a couple inches current YTD and some are well over averages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: How far north and west? lol I'm sitting at 29" and most people up here are between 22-30", I'm just about half of my average, are those NYC locations already above average for snowfall? sullivan and northern Ulster are over 45" of snow for the season, so I disagree I think that statement would be correct for south and southwest of NYC not north and west. Like you say I'm sitting at 27.1 inches which is just about average for this point in the season. Plus I've had a nice snow/sleet cover for the last 10 days 4 inches or so thick and going nowhere thanks to that sleet pack that laughs at the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I think that statement would be correct for south and southwest of NYC not north and west. Like you say I'm sitting at 27.1 inches which is just about average for this point in the season. Plus I've had a nice snow/sleet cover for the last 10 days 4 inches or so thick and going nowhere thanks to that sleet pack that laughs at the sun. Yea not to mention some areas should undoubtedly go above average like craigsmore etc... especially with this coming weeks event looking to drop another foot in those higher elevation spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 JFK average right now is about 10". They have 15". My point is that coastal locations, are higher then average and more snow then north and west, based on average. You guys proved my point. You are all about average right now. ISP, BDR and JFK are all well above average. LGA is 1" above average and NYC is just about average. In these types of winters, that is very rare. North and West usually does much better then the coast, but so far this year, that is not the case, relative to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, ag3 said: JFK average right now is about 10". They have 15". My point is that coastal locations, are higher then average and more snow then north and west, based on average. You guys proved my point. You are all about average right now. ISP, BDR and JFK are all well above average. LGA is 1" above average and NYC is just about average. In these types of winters, that is very rare. North and West usually does much better then the coast, but so far this year, that is not the case, relative to average. Outside of BGM, the coast is in the lead again like we have seen so often during the 2000's winters. Snowfall departures through 2/1/17: BTV...-15 ALB...-14.9 SYR...-5.2 BGM...+23.1 AVP...-8.2 ABE...-13.4 JFK....+3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, ag3 said: JFK average right now is about 10". They have 15". My point is that coastal locations, are higher then average and more snow then north and west, based on average. You guys proved my point. You are all about average right now. ISP, BDR and JFK are all well above average. LGA is 1" above average and NYC is just about average. In these types of winters, that is very rare. North and West usually does much better then the coast, but so far this year, that is not the case, relative to average. I picked up what you were laying down and happen to agree for IMBY at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Outside of BGM, the coast is in the lead again like we have seen so often during the 2000's winters. Snowfall departures through 2/1/17: BTV...-15 ALB...-14.9 SYR...-5.2 BGM...+23.1 AVP...-8.2 ABE...-13.4 JFK....+3.5 This is the point I was trying to make. I was not being combative. I am amazed that with a top 5-10 warmest January and a warm December, that somehow the coast still pulled off the most snow, relative to average. This winter reminds me of a 1990s winter but in the 90s, the interior did extremely well, relative to average, when comparing to the coast. This winter is a remarkable one so far. January was +5 to +7, yet January snowfall was well above average with 9"-13" at all coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Outside of BGM, the coast is in the lead again like we have seen so often during the 2000's winters. Snowfall departures through 2/1/17: BTV...-15 ALB...-14.9 SYR...-5.2 BGM...+23.1 AVP...-8.2 ABE...-13.4 JFK....+3.5 Northeast Pa that is north of AVP have done well with snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, ag3 said: This is the point I was trying to make. I was not being combative. I am amazed that with a top 5-10 warmest January and a warm December, that somehow the coast still pulled off the most snow, relative to average. This winter reminds me of a 1990s winter but in the 90s, the interior did extremely well, relative to average, when comparing to the coast. This winter is a remarkable one so far. January was +5 to +7, yet January snowfall was well above average with 9"-13" at all coastal locations. I don't think Anyone was being combative, I agree with your point at a completely statistical level based on relative averages I guess My only thinking on the specific matter was for a larger comparison not relative to our specific area but paints a better picture. if city A averages 100" of snow and sees 110", they're +10, great season.... for their area ONLY and if city B averages 200" of snow and sees 190" they're -10" not so great of a season... for their area ONLY... despite seeing 90" more than city A. Now if both city A and city B averages around the same then I'd agree... city A had a better winter... imo comparing city A to city B on any level is a stretch as their relative average snowfalls are vastly different, sure relative to average city A had a better winter, but only specific to their location. most the interior is nearly double on average for seasonal snowfall... (yes I get it, not as of late) but long term most places in the interior are around or above 60" and NYC area is around 30" or less.... again from a simply statistical, all numbers standpoint I agree... but I've never agreed with any comparing of season averages (winners and losers) for locales that don't see even remotely the same seasonalong term average in said category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 I'm curious, are those averages based on just the last twenty years or the long term mean since records began? The reason why I ask is because the numbers at the coast have been inflated since 2000 due to an unusual amount of well above average seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 26 minutes ago, ag3 said: This is the point I was trying to make. I was not being combative. I am amazed that with a top 5-10 warmest January and a warm December, that somehow the coast still pulled off the most snow, relative to average. This winter reminds me of a 1990s winter but in the 90s, the interior did extremely well, relative to average, when comparing to the coast. This winter is a remarkable one so far. January was +5 to +7, yet January snowfall was well above average with 9"-13" at all coastal locations. While the snow cover was very short lived at places like JFK, it was a record amount of January snowfall for top ten warmth. Last winter was the first 40"/40 snowfall and temperature season for JFK. This January came very close the first 10"/40 January. Top 10 warmest JFK Januaries and snowfall 1950...40.5...T 1998...39.6...0.1 1990...39.4..1.4 2006...39.1..2.1 2002...38.9...4.1 2017...38.6...11.7 1949...38.1...5.2 1975...37.9...0.6 2007...37.3...1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm curious, are those averages based on just the last twenty years or the long term mean since records began? The reason why I ask is because the numbers at the coast have been inflated since 2000 due to an unusual amount of well above average seasons. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf central park all time, excluding Jan of this year so far even in the last 10 years CP has recorded four- >50 seasons five <30 season and 1 in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 36 minutes ago, ag3 said: This is the point I was trying to make. I was not being combative. I am amazed that with a top 5-10 warmest January and a warm December, that somehow the coast still pulled off the most snow, relative to average. This winter reminds me of a 1990s winter but in the 90s, the interior did extremely well, relative to average, when comparing to the coast. This winter is a remarkable one so far. January was +5 to +7, yet January snowfall was well above average with 9"-13" at all coastal locations. Its impressive for that big of a departure to be at normal snow. I'm not shocked that areas north into sne are below normal etc. outside a a few years if we do bad they will probably do bad. We might be at 10 inches and they will be at 30 but both still suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: Outside of BGM, the coast is in the lead again like we have seen so often during the 2000's winters. Snowfall departures through 2/1/17: BTV...-15 ALB...-14.9 SYR...-5.2 BGM...+23.1 AVP...-8.2 ABE...-13.4 JFK....+3.5 BGM doing great with lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 This thread has sidetracked into the stupidest, whiniest, IMBY argument I can remember, and none of it has to do with the freakin models. Take it to banter or just leave it the heck alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 32 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm curious, are those averages based on just the last twenty years or the long term mean since records began? The reason why I ask is because the numbers at the coast have been inflated since 2000 due to an unusual amount of well above average seasons. The coast since 2000 has averaged 30"-45" of snow, depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Its impressive for that big of a departure to be at normal snow. I'm not shocked that areas north into sne are below normal etc. outside a a few years if we do bad they will probably do bad. We might be at 10 inches and they will be at 30 but both still suck. JFK is at 15" right now. 3"-5" above average. LGA, BDR and ISP are also above normal snowfall to this point. NYC and EWR are right at average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, ag3 said: The coast since 2000 has averaged 30"-45" of snow, depending on location. Right, which is well above the long term average since records began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, ag3 said: This is the point I was trying to make. I was not being combative. I am amazed that with a top 5-10 warmest January and a warm December, that somehow the coast still pulled off the most snow, relative to average. This winter reminds me of a 1990s winter but in the 90s, the interior did extremely well, relative to average, when comparing to the coast. This winter is a remarkable one so far. January was +5 to +7, yet January snowfall was well above average with 9"-13" at all coastal locations. its one storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Banter this stuff please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Right, which is well above the long term average since records began. Average is a function of the mean of a variable over a particular interval, which is not static. The 30 year running averages (1986-2016) are now up around 29-31" for locations E CNJ through NE NJ and parts of NYC. Long term average for NYC has always been around 28-29". So one can no longer say recent years have been merely attributed to luck at the coast. The 70s-90s were anomalous in the opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 59 minutes ago, ag3 said: The coast since 2000 has averaged 30"-45" of snow, depending on location. 2000 - present have been an amazing, almost 20 year stretch now for NYC snows almost every winter with very few exceptions, consistently above to well above average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 We really need to move this discussion someonewhere else, out of the feb model thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 The high for next Tuesdays storm is north of recent runs, very little snow even N+W, 2-4" tops none for dusting to 1" for NYC, lots of rain ^GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 34 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The high for next Tuesdays storm is north of recent runs, very little snow even N+W, 2-4" tops none for dusting to 1" for NYC, lots of rain ^GFS Can't trust the details of the surface features on the models past a few days this winter - we are in a very unfavorable chaotic pattern for snowstorms -only favorable for nickel and dime events - warmth has won out since the thaw started and the pattern will remain transient ........cold - milder - cold - and so on........just look at the 500 mb for the next couple weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Trust Forky. Look out for the follow up wave after the slop storm cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, ag3 said: Trust Forky. Look out for the follow up wave after the slop storm cutter. there are 2 followup nickel and dimes 9th and 11th that might total a quarter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 49 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The high for next Tuesdays storm is north of recent runs, very little snow even N+W, 2-4" tops none for dusting to 1" for NYC, lots of rain ^GFS Shocker. The GFS has been a broken record all winter long. It's the first to show a big snow solution, sticks to it for days, run after run, then totally pulls the plug and flips as we get closer in time. Hit the repeat button.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Still a cutter on the Euro but it does dig the trough a lot further Southeast than prior runs. This run would give us a long duration rain event with 2-3" over the far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 Euro def wasn't as good as 00z, north of 84 is low end warning level snow 4-6" theres a decent amount of freezing rain on euro as well for N+W sections between .10-.25 some isolated .50 (doubtful though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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