winterwx21 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 27 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro was weak for the day 7 storm. It had been showing nothing previously, so obviously it's an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro was weak for the day 7 storm. Haven't seen the Euro, but on the GFS, the storm is loaded with moisture in the mid-south, then runs headlong into high pressure sitting off Nantucket. Terrible dynamics - there looks to be a decent fetch of moisture, but it's generally light and very fast-moving. Even more exaggerated on the GGEM. Sure looks like a minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It had been showing nothing previously, so obviously it's an improvement. 11 minutes ago, RDRY said: Haven't seen the Euro, but on the GFS, the storm is loaded with moisture in the mid-south, then runs headlong into high pressure sitting off Nantucket. Terrible dynamics - there looks to be a decent fetch of moisture, but it's generally light and very fast-moving. Even more exaggerated on the GGEM. Sure looks like a minor event. The problem is that it's absoultely weak sauce at H5, especially on the Euro. At least on the GFS you have some interaction going on with the Northern stream. On the Euro the Northern stream is way up in Alberta while the southern shortwave is already off the US coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Pretty awful happy hour gfs run the sb storm is a disorganized mess 1-2" area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 32 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Pretty awful happy hour gfs run the sb storm is a disorganized mess 1-2" area wide Northern stream energy ends up getting ahead of the shortwave, we need the northern stream less amped, and slower, hybrid clipper with no phase on 18z.. hopefully just the crazy uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Northern stream energy ends up getting ahead of the shortwave, we need the northern stream less amped, and slower, hybrid clipper with no phase on 18z.. hopefully just the crazy uncle Some Winters it finds an excuse to snow, others it finds an excuse not too, this Winter is the ladder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Some Winters it finds an excuse to snow, others it finds an excuse not too, this Winter is the ladder. Plenty of time yanks left for a bombogenesis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 Ugly few runs for our Super Bowl storm, most guidance caving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 LOL the 12z GFS actually has a severe weather threat here on February 9th. Some SBCAPE makes it into E PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 The Euro is coming in much more organized and stronger for the system post day 7. Looks like it's going to be a raging cutter. 966mb into the UP of Michigan. Rain all the way up into Canada. Widespread 50's and lower 60's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Winter is over based on guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 hour ago, snow1 said: Winter is over based on guidance Yea I was really counting on that Feb 6 events... GFS and ggem have caved to euro, weak system, day 10 looks to be our only shot if we can get it trend away from a cutter. Which has been the seasonal trend, most models have shown cutter day 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea I was really counting on that Feb 6 events... GFS and ggem have caved to euro, weak system, day 10 looks to be our only shot if we can get it trend away from a cutter. Which has been the seasonal trend, most models have shown cutter day 6-10 At least Sunday's storm is still 5 days away, so there's enough time for it to trend back in the right direction. Hopefully we can get it a little more organized and at least squeeze a couple inches out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Yeah no change at all... The long range has been extremely volatile this year so far, so don't expect anything that you see from 7+ days to hold. This new look will most definitely change as well. Who knows what this'll look like in a few days. 00z GFS 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 The EURO also looks slot different than recent runs regarding the SB storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: The EURO also looks slot different than recent runs regarding the SB storm Thanks for that elaborate and informative post lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, mriceyman said: Thanks for that elaborate and informative post lol I don't have full access to the Euro so I can't really get into detail on what it showed. It looks like the northern stream was weaker this run and allows for the southern stream S/W to pop a low albeit weak off the mid Atlantic coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 1 hour ago, mriceyman said: Thanks for that elaborate and informative post lol The euro is a lakes cutter for SB storm, some snow on the front end, no accumulation till you get NW of 84 the 7-10 storm is a sheeted out mess and OTS of mid Atlantic coast between .5- 1.0" rain more on E Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The euro is a lakes cutter for SB storm, some snow on the front end, no accumulation till you get NW of 84 the 7-10 storm is a sheeted out mess and OTS of mid Atlantic coast between .5- 1.0" rain more on E Long Island So that would tell me the 7-10 storm isnt going to be as bad for vt as it looked yesterday? Thanks Ulst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Wouldn't the GFS be a heavy rain to heavy snow situation as a coastal takes over (talking about the storm after the light snow event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 The Euro was a bit closer to something more meaningful for us. 976mb to Detroit. Decent amount of rain for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro was a bit closer to something more meaningful for us. 976mb to Detroit. Decent amount of rain for the area. Really exciting, then again it's the long range euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 GFS and euro agree on atleast advisory snows around the 84 Cooridor early next week, GFS is a bit more widespread with 5-8" totals N+W, euros more 2-4" General with isolated 6-9" over higher elevations in Ulster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 GFS 18z looked pretty cold. CAD signature, it depicts a decent amount of snow even for NYC. GFS 18z develops another low along the boundary and cools the columns. Hopefully we get a storm to pop off the coast of North Carolina as the main one cuts in the Great Lakes. We really need that high around Quebec to hold strong so we get a secondary storm to take over and wrap around that cold air. It looks very interesting and moisture generous for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Im cautiously optimistic about early next week. Model runs have consistently continued to dig the low further south and have changed the primary to more of an overrunning low rather than a cutter. If we can get some more digging, this could produce at least some decent front end snows for most of us, similar to the December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Superbowl potential: Nam has been on fire this year and ever since last years blizzard really but it is the nam 0z at 84 hrs so take it with a grain of salt. The GFS 0z run doesn't have any of that light precip to our south whatsoever. Honestly I don't like the GFS anymore not that the nam is right just think GFS is a garbage model lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Superbowl potential: Nam has been on fire this year and ever since last years blizzard really but it is the nam 0z at 84 hrs so take it with a grain of salt. The GFS 0z run doesn't have any of that light precip to our south whatsoever. Honestly I don't like the GFS anymore not that the nam is right just think GFS is a garbage model lately. This shows nothing lol... weak shortwave, no interaction with the northern stream, gonna be the same solution as the GFS.... what are you referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 GFS for next Tuesday about 3-5" of snow for parts of LHV and .25" ice followed by some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 Euro and GFS still agree on a low end warning level event for north and west areas next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 It's remarkable to me that with this record breaking heat that JFK, ISP, BDR and other parts of the coast has more snow, relative to average, then north and west areas. Very unusual winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.