winterwx21 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 NAM now has a good snowfall for southern Jersey Monday morning. 3 to 4 inches. Just need a little bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: NAM now has a good snowfall for southern Jersey Monday morning. 3 to 4 inches. Just need a little bump north. the seasonal pattern favors systems trending north and stronger - Jan 7 and 14 did so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 Euro was 3-5" for most Feb 6 storm, Eastern LI gets 6-7 well north of yesterday's and last nights run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro was 3-5" for most Feb 6 storm, Eastern LI gets 6-7 well north of yesterday's and last nights run the JMA which did very well in the longer range with the Jan 7th event agrees with the GFS, CMC and Euro - kind of strange they all are on the same page this far out ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 And the EPS is all over the place with its ENS, we're still 7+ range, just worth knowing an events possible, no sense in analysis on track this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Storm still there on 18z albeit weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: NAM now has a good snowfall for southern Jersey Monday morning. 3 to 4 inches. Just need a little bump north. The NAM is on its own there so far. The RGEM wasn't that close. That event could definitely end up far enough NW for southeast New Jersey but unlikely it gets up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Doesn't it always seem that storms are modeled to track to our south followed by a shift north for many of them? Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said: Storm still there on 18z albeit weak not that weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 The GFS is still north with the clipper but I fully expect it will shift south towards the UKMET and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS is still north with the clipper but I fully expect it will shift south towards the UKMET and Euro Wednesday right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS is still north with the clipper but I fully expect it will shift south towards the UKMET and Euro may I ask why ? and how much can we expect ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Gfs has snow every few days Could be a snowy February if things pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 0z NAM showing some snow for the coast Monday. More further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 Feb 6 event is a mess at 500, no interaction between the 2 waves, basically a low passing south and offshore. And an enhanced clipper dropping some light snow... North Carolina and Virginia make out though.. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 And on the opposite end of the spectrum cmc is a cutter light front end snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 CMC tonight dropped a decent amount of snow before the changeover, but obviously too early to take any run seriously. Could be anything from a cutter to a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 Everybody wins on Feb 6 GFS solution... widespread 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 And euro looks absolutely nothing like previous runs or other guidance.... weak... sheared...OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: And euro looks absolutely nothing like previous runs or other guidance.... weak... sheared...OTS At this time everything is a convoluted mess. Too many vorts on the map thus the confusion. I'm not buying the weak OTS solution. There will be a Superbowl storm in my opinion. If it cuts or not is a different matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 35 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: At this time everything is a convoluted mess. Too many vorts on the map thus the confusion. I'm not buying the weak OTS solution. There will be a Superbowl storm in my opinion. If it cuts or not is a different matter. Personally, I don't see the cutter solution, either a coastal with track uncertainty, or the waves don't time properly and it sheers OTS off NC coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 14 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has snow every few days Could be a snowy February if things pan out Dont look at 6z dude. Blocking dissipates as has been the trend since October and PAC air floods the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Personally, I don't see the cutter solution, either a coastal with track uncertainty, or the waves don't time properly and it sheers OTS off NC coastline There is a weakness showing up on guidance over the GL. If this feature holds our slp will take the usual path of least resistance and track towards Pitt. Note that the GL blocking that was keeping this suppressed is just about gone now on the models. A cutter with a late transfer is a very good possibiliy and if you believe in seasonal trends, a more likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There is a weakness showing up on guidance over the GL. If this feature holds our slp will take the usual path of least resistance and track towards Pitt. Note that the GL blocking that was keeping this suppressed is just about gone now on the models. A cutter with a late transfer is a very good possibiliy and if you believe in seasonal trends, a more likely outcome. As the GFS shows... this piece of energy in the Midwest northern plains, is our storms "steering", as long as this piece of energy is held back, this wave will steer our LP east, and then We hope for phase timing... in contrast however the "outlier" as of now is the GGEM, which isn't even all that much of a cutter, the energy from the "steering" piece is much further north in Canada, allowing the LP to slip northEast a bit further through PA, but good timing and phasing allows for coastal redevelopment, and the interior snows, and coast snows to rain.... I do not see this piece of energy being this far north or even further north than this for that matter....I believe we have a shot at snow to rain, but a true lakes or western NY cutter no. GGEM Now I believe the euro is completely out to lunch... the "steering" energy is so overamped compared to other guidance, it robs and sheers, and pushes our LP off shore, while the Canadian wave strengthens.... don't see it happening im currently leaning towards a blend of the GFS/GGEM.... and will wait for NAM.... I think snow to rain is a good possibility, but all snow is on the table for sure, I doubt inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 The 12z NAM is well South and East for tomorrow. Nothing more than flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1-3" for most on the NAM with the clipper. Interior SE NY jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 1-3" for most on the NAM with the clipper. Interior SE NY jackpot. still looks pretty dry to me, unless you get far north west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 GFS long range has the vortex over AK but it retrogrades into the aleutians pretty quickly. Also shows a strong NAO block at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 That's a pretty serious NAO block on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 GFS and ggem are actually nearly identical Solutions, timings a bit off... both are week coastals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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