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February Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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34 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

This storms has been pushed back now nearly 48 hours.... originally a Super Bowl Sunday afternoon into Monday event, and Now GFS has it as a late Monday early Tue

 

this things wayyyyy out in fantasy land, especially now, its past the 240 mark lol

Yeah I'm completely aware of the 10 day mark, but you usually don't see that kind of agreement this far out. If this remains until Monday night, then it'll be a much more legitimate threat. 

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Yeah I'm completely aware of the 10 day mark, but you usually don't see that kind of agreement this far out. If this remains until Monday night, then it'll be a much more legitimate threat. 

I still think it's a legitimate threat, and do believe we will have a storm this time frame, but regardless of consistency, any solution on exact track/snow amounts/intensity etc beyond 3-5 days with a coastal is grain of salt imo

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8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I still think it's a legitimate threat, and do believe we will have a storm this time frame, but regardless of consistency, any solution on exact track/snow amounts/intensity etc beyond 3-5 days with a coastal is grain of salt imo

I agree. At least we have something to track honestly. This winter has been booorrrring. 

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13 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

If it wasn't for December we'd be in the same boat as last season up here... just an awful stretch

Stop crying bros, we will get through this. The next three weeks look the best so far this winter. -all we need is a storm that the GFS just depicted and we'll be good. Never mind the fact that we can nickel and dime the next week with two potential minor events. I'm excited for the next two weeks at least but I'm being quiet about it cause it's far but man am I hyped! 

 

By the way the day after Super Bowl storm looks like the storm we had a few weeks ago when New York City had gotten almost 6 inches except it's a better setup in my opinion! Let's see what the GFS prints out! 

 

I homestly feel like the models have have been better this year in the long term!

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13 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Stop crying bros, we will get through this. The next three weeks look the best so far this winter. -all we need is a storm that the GFS just depicted and we'll be good. Never mind the fact that we can nickel and dime the next week with two potential minor events. I'm excited for the next two weeks at least but I'm being quiet about it cause it's far but man am I hyped! 

 

By the way the day after Super Bowl storm looks like the storm we had a few weeks ago when New York City had gotten almost 6 inches except it's a better setup in my opinion! Let's see what the GFS prints out! 

 

I homestly feel like the models have have been better this year in the long term!

I feel like the opposite...no long range has done excellent, they've been ok at recognizing an event, but it's not like the euro of past where a storm would stay locked for days, constant flipflopping and inconsistency on all storms (GFS/Euro/GGEM..... the NAMs been king this year... by far.... other than a passing glance and some discussion, I'm not hyped for anything until it's in the 84hr range 

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10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I feel like the opposite...no long range has done excellent, they've been ok at recognizing an event, but it's not like the euro of past where a storm would stay locked for days, constant flipflopping and inconsistency on all storms (GFS/Euro/GGEM..... the NAMs been king this year... by far.... other than a passing glance and some discussion, I'm not hyped for anything until it's in the 84hr range 

Yes but the euro also had the BM track for the past storm showing a warm solution literally 240 hours out. Remember we were all arguing about it lol

 

cant wait for the next two weeks! 

 

Nam has has been king this year and last year ever since the. BLLizard I feel

 

edit: what happened to the NAM run tonight? It's not showing anywhere

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4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Yes but the euro also had the BM track for the past storm showing a warm solution literally 240 hours out. Remember we were all arguing about it lol

 

cant wait for the next two weeks! 

 

Nam has has been king this year and last year ever since the. BLLizard I feel

 

edit: what happened to the NAM run tonight? It's not showing anywhere

Running late... currently running, idk why

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23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

GFS and CMC keep shifting south with the clipper for midweek. Something to watch.

Hope and pray that this doesn't turn into a Mid-Atlantic event and misses us to the south. I have real serious doubts about the pattern being favorable again starting around February 15th

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Hope and pray that this doesn't turn into a Mid-Atlantic event and misses us to the south. I have real serious doubts about the pattern being favorable again starting around February 15th

The event near 140 hours may miss.  I think he was referencing the clipper around day 3-4

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The event near 140 hours may miss.  I think he was referencing the clipper around day 3-4

Oh ok I misunderstood which one he was talking about. I really hope the post superbowl storm doesn't miss for the sake of snowlovers. I think the pattern goes very unfavorable for cold and snow for an extended period come February 15th-ish. By then we are approaching March

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Oh ok I misunderstood which one he was talking about. I really hope the post superbowl storm doesn't miss for the sake of snowlovers. I think the pattern goes very unfavorable for cold and snow for an extended period come February 15th-ish. By then we are approaching March

I would be worried more about that event cutting than missing at this point 

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47 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The ukmet through 72 looks relatively far south with it too

Might have to start a separate thread on this later today or tomorrow - Central NJ and points north could pick up a couple to a few inches if trends continue

 

 

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