snowman19 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 13 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euros doesn't have so much as a Dusting through Feb 27th lol... rain In Feb... yay The new ensembles on all the models (Euro, CMC, GFS) are ugly right through the end of the runs. Don't bother looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The new ensembles on all the models (Euro, CMC, GFS) are ugly right through the end of the runs. Don't bother looking I remember you said something about transient cold shots. The vast majority of winters just have transient cold shots. You only really need two days of cold to get a nice snowstorm anyway. Even the -1 shot last February was a transient cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 4 hours ago, Paragon said: I remember you said something about transient cold shots. The vast majority of winters just have transient cold shots. You only really need two days of cold to get a nice snowstorm anyway. Even the -1 shot last February was a transient cold shot. This winter feels a little different though. The transient cold shots always seem to underperform, and the highs/lows tend to beat guidance, especially during torches. I do agree though, you can capitalize on a snowstorm with a very brief cold period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 9 hours ago, bluewave said: Maybe we'll get a significant squall line to track in about a week. Could be the start of a much colder pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Look at what the GFS 06z is showing. Just yesterday it showed a cutter in the Midwest now it's close to producing a snow event even here. Well not exactly but it's trending more south with that high in place over Montreal. This is for February 28-march 1st time frame. past 4 GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Models looking better for more snow in the east. Models are starting to lose all the big lake cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models looking better for more snow in the east. Models are starting to lose all the big lake cutters With so many Cities on the doorstep of average snowfall I would like to see one more snow. I think the major inhibitor is the negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models looking better for more snow in the east. Models are starting to lose all the big lake cutters People keep saying we have had all these cutters this season but we really haven't. Look at how low the snowfall is in Chicago. We haven't had many huggers either except the one in late January otherwise Allentown's snowfall total would be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Paragon said: People keep saying we have had all these cutters this season but we really haven't. Look at how low the snowfall is in Chicago. We haven't had many huggers either except the one in late January otherwise Allentown's snowfall total would be higher. The trend this season has been pretty consistent in the mid/long range...models favor cutters between Approx. 192-340hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The trend this season has been pretty consistent in the mid/long range...models favor cutters between Approx. 192-340hr Just heard this and it's pretty surprising- Chicago has had no snow now in 65 consecutive days- new record! I don't feel so bad for us, we've been lucky compared to everyone else south of New England or east of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 43 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Models looking better for more snow in the east. Models are starting to lose all the big lake cutters we're still 10 to 15 days out....anything's possible at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, Paragon said: Just heard this and it's pretty surprising- Chicago has had no snow now in 65 consecutive days- new record! I don't feel so bad for us, we've been lucky compared to everyone else south of New England or east of the Rockies. They also hit 70 degrees in Chicago the other day. The 2nd earliest February 70 degree reading there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: They also hit 70 degrees in Chicago the other day. The 2nd earliest February 70 degree reading there. No cold air anywhere this year (outside of the pac northwest) Temp wise, this winter is a clunker with some of the all time great temperature clunkers such as 01-02, 05-06, 11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: They also hit 70 degrees in Chicago the other day. The 2nd earliest February 70 degree reading there. Sheesh, so this is the kind of weather we need to break the drought in California? I hope this is enough for them for at least a few years :-P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Sheesh, so this is the kind of weather we need to break the drought in California? I hope this is enough for them for at least a few years :-P with a screaming PAC Jet, cold/snow is often limited in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I also heard a dry line is going to set up in Illinois? You usually see those down in Texas or Oklahoma lol. The severe weather season is going to be crazy (it already has been in the South.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 52 minutes ago, Paragon said: People keep saying we have had all these cutters this season but we really haven't. Look at how low the snowfall is in Chicago. We haven't had many huggers either except the one in late January otherwise Allentown's snowfall total would be higher. We had more shredded storms than lake cutters this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: We had more shredded storms than lake cutters this winter. Yeah they were big coming from the Pacific and got shredded over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 58 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Didn't folks learn their lessons yet this winter looking at the long range God-awful GFS? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 No talk about the models? It's going to snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No talk about the models? It's going to snow again. I'd wait and see how things play out. The warmth isn't going to let go for awhile. Even Don mentioned that the period leading into March looks AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I'd wait and see how things play out. The warmth isn't going to let go for awhile. Even Don mentioned that the period leading into March looks AN. The period of above normal going into the first few days of March isn't even the real show. It looks to cool down (not cold) the 2nd week of March, then the pattern retrogression starts. The real torch looks to start just after mid month and it could be extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No talk about the models? It's going to snow again. I see GFS flipped on the cutter for early next week and now shows a snow threat instead, but do any other models show this? I haven't had time to look at much today. I wouldn't get excited if it's only GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No talk about the models? It's going to snow again. The only notable thing on the models the next ten days is the severe weather threat for Saturday. The Euro strengthens the LLJ overhead and brings between 500-1000 J/KG of SBCAPE as far North as Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I see GFS flipped on the cutter for early next week and now shows a snow threat instead, but do any other models show this? I haven't had time to look at much today. I wouldn't get excited if it's only GFS. Most of the guidance has the Southeast ridge reloading around day 8 which would cause any organized system to cut well to our West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The only notable thing on the models the next ten days is the severe weather threat for Saturday. The Euro strengthens the LLJ overhead and brings between 500-1000 J/KG of SBCAPE as far North as Southern New England. Agreed. Saturday could be a real interesting day for us as far as an early season severe thunderstorm outbreak. That's the thing to be watching on the models, not phantom "snows" 7-8 days out on the operational GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agreed. Saturday could be a real interesting day for us as far as an early season severe thunderstorm outbreak. That's the thing to be watching on the models, not phantom "snows" 7-8 days out on the operational GFS Don't normally look too often at SPC this time of year but went and read the discussion. Fairly good agreement on severe storms for the Ohio valley on Friday with question marks after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: I see GFS flipped on the cutter for early next week and now shows a snow threat instead, but do any other models show this? I haven't had time to look at much today. I wouldn't get excited if it's only GFS. Watch the models trend favorable. Mjo is very favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Time to track the low for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 36 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Time to track the low for this weekend Still a cutter, the flow up wave is the only thing worth looking at imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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