dmillz25 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Anyone check out the 18z NAM? Looks like a quicker phase to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Anyone check out the 18z NAM? Looks like a quicker phase to me Yes Long Island is in play again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 11 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Anyone check out the 18z NAM? Looks like a quicker phase to me Too little too late. The fat lady has already sung and gone home to bed on tomorrow. It's over Johnny.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Pretty good snows for Northern NC and SE VA on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 I'm just stating what it showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Too little too late. The fat lady has already sung and gone home to bed on tomorrow. It's over Johnny.... People live on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 You need the trough to go negative tilt faster. The surface low develops pretty far South, but you have at best a neutrally tilted trough, and that's not going to bring it back towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 32 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You need the trough to go negative tilt faster. The surface low develops pretty far South, but you have at best a neutrally tilted trough, and that's not going to bring it back towards the coast. Not unless you have another piece of energy dive into the offshore low and bomb it out. Which sort of happens further north to clock eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 It's probably too late for us to have the minor changes that are possible matter. Like it was mentioned, the trough has to tilt negative much sooner to allow Atlantic moisture to flow westward. That might happen in time for E MA and should give ME a big snowstorm, but it's way late for this area. Boston needs fairly minor changes for this to be a significant event there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 2 hours ago, christhesnowman said: Yes Long Island is in play again Unfortunately the Nam isn't even a hit... and its all alone on its solution...if the sole outlier isn't even in the ballpark yet, the day before the storm... I wouldn't hold my breath waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 Boring weather on euro next 10 days... warmth is real this weekend and next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 4 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Boring weather on euro next 10 days... warmth is real this weekend and next weekend A lot of people will get Spring fever and then a rude reminder of the March Lion will arrive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 the models are actually very active with the Southern stream over the next 7-14 days, but it looks like at least for now that they have very little Northern interaction, so these closed upper level systems cross the deep South and then OTS. That's a very unusual pattern, and I would bet that at some point, one of these ULL are going to get involved with the Northern branch and blow up into a major system. The end of the 12z GGEM does exactly this, and the GFS wasn't far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: the models are actually very active with the Southern stream over the next 7-14 days, but it looks like at least for now that they have very little Northern interaction, so these closed upper level systems cross the deep South and then OTS. That's a very unusual pattern, and I would bet that at some point, one of these ULL are going to get involved with the Northern branch and blow up into a major system. The end of the 12z GGEM does exactly this, and the GFS wasn't far off. It looks like a cutoff low pattern which usually starts mid to late March. I suppose it's possible it starts a couple of weeks early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: It looks like a cutoff low pattern which usually starts mid to late March. I suppose it's possible it starts a couple of weeks early... Maybe it will start right at the end of February or beginning of March when it's supposed to get cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: It looks like a cutoff low pattern which usually starts mid to late March. I suppose it's possible it starts a couple of weeks early... The Euro has a large cut off low off the SE Canadaian coast that helps to setup a major block for the US East coast towards the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Winter isn't over..... How much snow did you pickup between yesterday and this afternoon at your house with the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro has a large cut off low off the SE Canadaian coast that helps to setup a major block for the US East coast towards the end of next week. With an SOI crash / that should not cut IMO . That day 9 system should come under . What that means here ? Naso sure yet . The EURO has over amped SW out of the 4 corners all year . The GFS has more confluence and with a - EPO that makes more sense . I think that will belly under . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: How much snow did you pickup between yesterday and this afternoon at your house with the storm? I would've phrased it differently, but I was thinking much the same thing. We have been burned often this winter by signals in the medium-range. Still, it looks pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 39 minutes ago, Mophstymeo said: I would've phrased it differently, but I was thinking much the same thing. We have been burned often this winter by signals in the medium-range. Still, it looks pretty. You on LI have not been burned. You have 25"+ of snow. Well above average so far. Same goes for NYC and it's boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 19 hours ago, White Gorilla said: A lot of people will get Spring fever and then a rude reminder of the March Lion will arrive I'd agree. FALSE SPRING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: the models are actually very active with the Southern stream over the next 7-14 days, but it looks like at least for now that they have very little Northern interaction, so these closed upper level systems cross the deep South and then OTS. That's a very unusual pattern, and I would bet that at some point, one of these ULL are going to get involved with the Northern branch and blow up into a major system. The end of the 12z GGEM does exactly this, and the GFS wasn't far off. Euro does it... nice soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 20 minutes ago, ag3 said: You on LI have not been burned. You have 25"+ of snow. Well above average so far. Same goes for NYC and it's boroughs. Please don't misunderstand me. I'm not referring to the total snowfall. With regard to that, LI is sitting at about average. I'm referring to the models and what they've been showing in the medium- to long-range. According to the Euro last Thursday, we should've been digging out from a major snow storm just about now. And then . . . poof. The storm signal was gone and hello blustery but clear skies. That's what Snowman19 was referring to and what I was commenting on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, Mophstymeo said: Please don't misunderstand me. I'm not referring to the total snowfall. With regard to that, LI is sitting at about average. I'm referring to the models and what they've been showing in the medium- to long-range. According to the Euro last Thursday, we should've been digging out from a major snow storm just about now. And then . . . poof. The storm signal was gone and hello blustery but clear skies. That's what Snowman19 was referring to and what I was commenting on. It was 1 or 2 runs in the fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: First run of the euro weeklies in like forever that actually has a colder week 3 instead of a warmer one early March. Strong -EPO pattern with the PV migrating over to Hudson Bay. The weeklies have done a decent job through week 3 on the teleconnection patterns this winter. Cold is centered over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes with an above/below normal battle zone over NC/VA as cold air presses SE against a piece of the SE Ridge holding on. Our sensible weather will be determined by where the baroclinic zone sets up between the -EPO and lingering SE ridge. That's the tricky part Bluewave, where does the baroclinic zone setup? It gets tricky come March because the wavelengths/spacing are doing their springtime shortening at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: That's the tricky part Bluewave, where does the baroclinic zone setup? It gets tricky come March because the wavelengths/spacing are doing their springtime shortening at that point Early March is a really good time for this to happen though, it fits a lot of the analogs. Unc's 1960 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 7 hours ago, Mophstymeo said: Please don't misunderstand me. I'm not referring to the total snowfall. With regard to that, LI is sitting at about average. I'm referring to the models and what they've been showing in the medium- to long-range. According to the Euro last Thursday, we should've been digging out from a major snow storm just about now. And then . . . poof. The storm signal was gone and hello blustery but clear skies. That's what Snowman19 was referring to and what I was commenting on. This is why you look at patterns and don't hug models. Isotherm never liked the Thursday storm. But he's pretty big on the pattern at the end of the month and the beginning of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 Euros doesn't have so much as a Dusting through Feb 27th lol... rain In Feb... yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 I'll take the rain to wash this nasty salt away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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