Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: If there were to be any changes it would have to come today! Very unlikely but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 NAM getting closer. 72 hours out i would not write off a moderate coastal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: NAM getting closer. 72 hours out i would not write off a moderate coastal snowfall. The NAM couldn't be further away from bringing a snowstorm to this area. The ULL tracks from Buffalo to Toronto. You need about a 500 mile shift South. Time to give up the ghost on this one. Even most of New England misses out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 The trough is deeper on the 12z GFS, but the biggest problem remains that it runs well out ahead of the Southern S/W. If the Southern S/W had been out ahead of the deepening trough, it could have phased and would have tugged it up the coast, but instead it dampens out. So the mid-Atlantic gets a bit of rain and the coastal develops way offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The NAM couldn't be further away from bringing a snowstorm to this area. The ULL tracks from Buffalo to Toronto. You need about a 500 mile shift South. Time to give up the ghost on this one. Even most of New England misses out. Literally every operational model and their ensembles are total misses. Like not even close now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Literally every operational model and their ensembles are total misses. Like not even close now The timing is off, the ULL develops too far North and the resultant surface low develops so far offshore that you might have to be in Upstate Maine to get something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The timing is off, the ULL develops too far North and the resultant surface low develops so far offshore that you might have to be in Upstate Maine to get something significant. Should be fun for Caribou and Fort Kent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Should be fun for Caribou and Fort Kent... Some places up there could get up to three feet by the end of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 The upper low has to go underneath your location for there to be significant precip-the flow north of the upper low is from the east or south which transports moisture in. With the upper low tracking way north, the only chance for good snow is up in ME. This was a good opportunity but the waves being timed poorly means no phase and showery precip if that. There could be some improvements but at this stage we need something major to make the upper low dig further and phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: CMC has precip getting into southern NJ from the coastal - still time anyone who writes this off today is wrong - wouldn't take much for a partial phasing and a light to moderate event close to the coast and part of NYC metro especially since this is trending closer - we have seen this happen many times in the past as the event gets within 2 - 3 days See that giant L over SE Canada? That's not what you want to see if you want an East coast storm. All you're doing is wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 If you want a wicked storm, the GGEM has it at day 9. The regular GFS looks nothing like this, but interestingly enough the PARA GFS isn't that disimilar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: CMC has precip getting into southern NJ from the coastal - still time anyone who writes this off today is wrong - wouldn't take much for a partial phasing and a light to moderate event close to the coast and part of NYC metro especially since this is trending closer - we have seen this happen many times in the past as the event gets within 2 - 3 days It is not trending to become a storm for us at all. Not even in the ballpark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If you want a wicked storm, the GGEM has it at day 9. The regular GFS looks nothing like this, but interestingly enough the PARA GFS isn't that disimilar. Seems a tad warm though for the metro area... need it to trend a bit south and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: CMC has precip getting into southern NJ from the coastal - still time anyone who writes this off today is wrong - wouldn't take much for a partial phasing and a light to moderate event close to the coast and part of NYC metro especially since this is trending closer - we have seen this happen many times in the past as the event gets within 2 - 3 days Sooooo if I write it off today and there's no storm, am I still wrong? It's dead, Jim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: CMC has precip getting into southern NJ from the coastal - still time anyone who writes this off today is wrong - wouldn't take much for a partial phasing and a light to moderate event close to the coast and part of NYC metro especially since this is trending closer - we have seen this happen many times in the past as the event gets within 2 - 3 days The CMC is very warm too. If it came a little closer to give us more precip, it would be just rain. The CMC has rain showers well to the northwest of NYC wednesday. We would need a bombing low in perfect position overcome the marginal airmass wednesday. Getting brushed by light-moderate precip would be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 24 minutes ago, Blizz said: Seems a tad warm though for the metro area... need it to trend a bit south and colder. I didn't say anything about it being snow. It's a big rain and wind producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I didn't say anything about it being snow. It's a big rain and wind producer. verbatim, it's another noreaster without any cold air like we had on 1/23. However it's the GGEM which blows up everything and it's 10 days away so just fantasy at this point during a boring period coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: and you are making a forecast using a 234 hour map ? chances are there will not be any storm at 234 or it shifted east with cold enough air for a snowstorm - no sense in even posting a 234 hour map - that's wishcasting Maybe you didn't catch the trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: See that giant L over SE Canada? That's not what you want to see if you want an East coast storm. All you're doing is wishcasting. Yep, the ULL is the issue. It needs to come south and dig a little more. The shortwave has sped up, though. That's why the surface maps are showing a snowstorm for NNE now. It wouldn't take that much of a shift for the storm to begin backing up into LI/SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Rittenhouse said: Yep, the ULL is the issue. It needs to come south and dig a little more. The shortwave has sped up, though. That's why the surface maps are showing a snowstorm for NNE now. It wouldn't take that much of a shift for the storm to begin backing up into LI/SNE. The Braves have better odds at winning the World Series this year at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 If the last storm screwed Boston, it's hard to imagine the last one having much of a chance there, let alone down here. The pattern is shifting to favor storms to our NE, its better to wait for the progged better pattern coming up in the last week of Feb and early March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: for your info snow showers are in the forecast already for Wednesday - not just light rain temps at all levels are borderline The snow showers are from lake effect squalls as the storm pulls away and strong NW winds wrap around the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The snow showers are from lake effect squalls as the storm pulls away and strong NW winds wrap around the backside. Sounds a lot like the snow flurries we've been getting today lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, Paragon said: Sounds a lot like the snow flurries we've been getting today lol. It's very common to get snow showers on the back side of ULL as they pull away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On the 18z NAM you would need to be in far NE NH or Maine in order to get accumulating snowfall from upcoming system. This thing is trending alright..further and further away. It's nothing like what the Euro showed a few days ago, when the closed ULL was over Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 53 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: On the 18z NAM you would need to be in far NE NH or Maine in order to get accumulating snowfall from upcoming system. This thing is trending alright..further and further away. It's nothing like what the Euro showed a few days ago, when the closed ULL was over Tennessee. I don't see more than a line of snow squalls out of this event.. Thursday's gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: On the 18z NAM you would need to be in far NE NH or Maine in order to get accumulating snowfall from upcoming system. This thing is trending alright..further and further away. It's nothing like what the Euro showed a few days ago, when the closed ULL was over Tennessee. Yeah this one is over for us. Even SNE is probably gonna be a miss (it's about time). Not sure what neg nao is trying to hang his hat on. The "trend" would have to be 1,000 miles at this point to bring a big storm here and that is obviously not gonna happen. He is indeed wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 It's a shame that thursday's snow will not pan out. It could have been a biggie. Next time period to watch is late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 33 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Yeah this one is over for us. Even SNE is probably gonna be a miss (it's about time). Not sure what neg nao is trying to hang his hat on. The "trend" would have to be 1,000 miles at this point to bring a big storm here and that is obviously not gonna happen. He is indeed wishcasting. Well Monday's event didn't do a lot in SNE either- I think that was a sign that the pattern was changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 32 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's a shame that thursday's snow will not pan out. It could have been a biggie. Next time period to watch is late February. Yeah I hope we get something like what we had in March 2009. Remember that one? The winter before that wasn't great but we salvaged it with a nice event on March 1, 2009 that gave us about 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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