NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: ? Looks to pass through the BM. Position's about a half-degree outside the BM at 126. Nonetheless, most of the precip is offshore. Really only NH and coastal ME get a hit worth discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 6 hours ago, NortheastPAWx said: Position's about a half-degree outside the BM at 126. Nonetheless, most of the precip is offshore. Really only NH and coastal ME get a hit worth discussing. Tis all model noise at this point though. Don't focus too much on run-to-run variances. Instead, look at the overall 500mb pattern and the indicies and it becomes obvious that there is a significant threat here. A sure thing? Of course not! But probably this season's best HECS threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Some similarities on the EPS with a neutral ENSO phase 8 February composite for late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Eduardo said: Tis all model noise at this point though. Don't focus too much on run-to-run variances. Instead, look at the overall 500mb pattern and the indicies and it becomes obvious that there is a significant threat here. A sure thing? Of course not! But probably this season's best HECS threat. HECS ? Jury is still out on this one - the key to this system is if there is going to be enough room in the atmosphere after Mondays storm passes for the players to phase properly and the southern energy needs to get in front of the northern energy somewhat - Euro model is still favored over the others because the model is superior to the GFS in regards to physics and its handling of all the players on the field -BUT doesn't mean it will be the correct solution all the time - its a waiting game right now and we will not have a clearer picture of what will transpire until the Monday runs of all models and even then some doubts might remain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: HECS ? Jury is still out on this one - the key to this system is if there is going to be enough room in the atmosphere after Mondays storm passes for the players to phase properly and the southern energy needs to get in front of the northern energy somewhat - Euro model is still favored over the others because the model is superior to the GFS in regards to physics and its handling of all the players on the field -BUT doesn't mean it will be the correct solution all the time - its a waiting game right now and we will not have a clearer picture of what will transpire until the Monday runs of all models and even then some doubts might remain Agreed- the Monday system has to get out of the way first before we can look beyond that for specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 GFS still has the northern stream outrunning the southern stream ull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 GGEM looks like a late phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 The CMC has gotten better with the timing of the streams: slower, sharper NS energy with faster SS energy. 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 UKMET looks quite Euro-esque. Nice to see. Better than 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Are the teles still in our favor??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, BlizzardNYC said: Are the teles still in our favor??? Yes. Best look of the season. Best HECS pattern in a while at the hemispheric scale, but of course nuances are important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 One would think the panel between those has the Low about over Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yes. Best look of the season. Best HECS pattern in a while at the hemispheric scale, but of course nuances are important. I agree, the set up is very good for a major event here. I'm more worried about the antecedent cold airmass being too stale than this going out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, mimillman said: I agree, the set up is very good for a major event here. I'm more worried about the antecedent cold airmass being too stale than this going out to sea. It might be marginal, but a good track with a bombing low should be good enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It might be marginal, but a good track with a bombing low should be good enough for snow. 50/50 low could hold the key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It might be marginal, but a good track with a bombing low should be good enough for snow. To me, this seems like the GFS traditional progressive bias coming into play. I would like to see the Euro continue to hold on to this storm. Events in set ups such as these are normally well modeled 4+ days in advance, with the exception of the Boxing Day blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: To me, this seems like the GFS traditional progressive bias coming into play. I would like to see the Euro continue to hold on to this storm. Events in set ups such as these are normally well modeled 4+ days in advance, with the exception of the Boxing Day blizzard. There will be the usual caveats with this one. Hopefully the phase happens when we need, if it happens too late, no dice. If the pieces come together this can be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: There will be the usual caveats with this one. Hopefully the phase happens when we need, if it happens too late, no dice. If the pieces come together this can be a monster. How does 12z euro look for the Thursday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Euro has a late phase. 980 south of Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Euro has a late phase. 980 south of Nova Scotia. That hurts. Been slightly east each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: That hurts. Been slightly east each run. Still time for changes. But yeah, we need the phase to be sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: Still time for changes. But yeah, we need the phase to be sooner. With that trough I would think we would get 1 to 3 when the low passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Still time for changes. But yeah, we need the phase to be sooner. The pattern this winter has been for storms to come closer to the coast, so we shall see if that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Discouraging Euro run, but still plenty of time for this to trend favorably for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 EPS looks like an earlier phase for Thursday? Looking at TT so can't really see between 24hr increments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 34 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: EPS looks like an earlier phase for Thursday? Looking at TT so can't really see between 24hr increments No, northern stream steals the thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, mimillman said: No, northern stream steals the thunder. The orientation of the ridge sucks to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Looks like the GFS has been slowing down the northern stream and speeding up the southern stream a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 hours ago, dmillz25 said: The orientation of the ridge sucks to be honest It's gotten progressively worse as the ridge has trended from over Idaho to over the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 The trend is undeniable on the CMC: slower, deeper NS energy and faster SS energy. Hopefully this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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