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February Model Discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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4 minutes ago, Morris said:

We need more than just trends. Our current storm was well modeled by a few models in the grand scheme of things at the beginning of the week.

This storm went from being possibly 4" for NYC at 12z Monday to a 8-12" storm, and that was with 72 hours. We have another 24 hours of lead time. Not saying that lead time is the cure for all storms, but I think that it's enough time for the Monday storm to take a more favorable track. It certainly has the option to trend north, or not trend at all. 

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22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Wait until you see day 6.

 

19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Major Storm Along Coast EMCWF 850 Next Thursday\

ecmwf_T850_us_7.png

 

 

 

11 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said:

Euro is the only model to show this now though right? What are the possibilities it actually happens?

 

Major pattern support for a MECS 

 

 

IMG_1796.JPG

IMG_1797.JPG

IMG_1798.JPG

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43 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

 

 

 

 

Major pattern support for a MECS 

 

 

IMG_1796.JPG

IMG_1797.JPG

IMG_1798.JPG

with the Nao forecasted   rising  rapidly towards neutral and above that is considered an east coast storm signal in itself along with the positive PNA

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So I understand the 2nd analog of next week's midweek potential is the Blizzard of '78, which is insane. I went back to revisit that set up and compared it to the 12z Euro.

The below article notes the below as contributing factors:

1) Unusually strong high pressure over central Canada with very cold air, and nearly stationary high pressure over Greenland

2) Low pressure at the surface and aloft moved out of the Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic coast

3) Cold Canadian air to the north, low pressure to the south and relatively warm ocean air mixed together to form “The Blizzard”, which stalled off southern New England for nearly 36 hours

http://www.weather.gov/media/box/officePrograms/science/Blizzard_of_1978.pdf (see slides 19-24)

Thoughts on how 'closely' (or not) this set up resembles those points? I'm really just learning at this point, so my view could be totally off. Included some screen shots from the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday 12z Euro below to compare.

 

Wednesday 12z - H pressure in place over southern, central Canada. L pressure begins to move in from GL region. Greenland covered by H pressures. Note L pressure down in Alabama.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_6.png

 

Thursday 12z - H pressure in place over southern, central Canada, moves slightly further south.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_7.png

 

Friday 12z - H pressure still in place just south of Greenland.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_8.png

 

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30 minutes ago, rmo09001 said:

So I understand the 2nd analog of next week's midweek potential is the Blizzard of '78, which is insane. I went back to revisit that set up and compared it to the 12z Euro.

The below article notes the below as contributing factors:

1) Unusually strong high pressure over central Canada with very cold air, and nearly stationary high pressure over Greenland

2) Low pressure at the surface and aloft moved out of the Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic coast

3) Cold Canadian air to the north, low pressure to the south and relatively warm ocean air mixed together to form “The Blizzard”, which stalled off southern New England for nearly 36 hours

http://www.weather.gov/media/box/officePrograms/science/Blizzard_of_1978.pdf (see slides 19-24)

Thoughts on how 'closely' (or not) this set up resembles those points? I'm really just learning at this point, so my view could be totally off. Included some screen shots from the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday 12z Euro below to compare.

 

Wednesday 12z - H pressure in place over southern, central Canada. L pressure begins to move in from GL region. Greenland covered by H pressures. Note L pressure down in Alabama.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_6.png

 

Thursday 12z - H pressure in place over southern, central Canada, moves slightly further south.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_7.png

 

Friday 12z - H pressure still in place just south of Greenland.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_8.png

 

another contributing factor for a big east coast storm is the MJO forecasted to go strongly into Phase 8 especially in February

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Just a reminder - this was the 18Z GFS on Friday Feb 3 , and its output for Thursday Feb 9th - showing how poorly it handled yesterdays Major Storm at 138 hours. Seems both Upton and Mt. Holly are believing todays non storm GFS and discounting the Euro which shows a storm coming up the coast next week which also supports the current pattern

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

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15 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

GFS still worlds apart from the Euro on the Thursday event

Gfs didn't show yesterdays storm till last Sunday - If the Euro keeps showing the phasing solution - have to go with the Euro - matches the pattern with all the blocking - 50/50 low rapidly rising NAO towards neutral and a positive PNA

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GFS showed some interaction earlier in the run. In the end, there is a traffic jam in the N Atlantic, which ultimately causes the ST jet system to exit east. This COULD be one of those unusual cases in which the NAO tanks so significantly that the NE misses out despite the potential. Outside a reloading of the pattern in very late Feb into early March, I honestly see next week as one of the NYC metro's last chances for something significant. 

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