weatherfreeeeak Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Wow. Let's get this a little farther south and we might have something to talk about here. What does the 12z euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Wow. Let's get this a little farther south and we might have something to talk about here. That was close.... It goes from a 990 LP south of me to that in 6hrs... Need to keep an eye on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: What does the 12z euro show? That is the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, EasternLI said: That was close.... It goes from a 990 LP south of me to that in 6hrs... Need to keep an eye on that. 96 hours is a lot of time for favorable trends, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: 96 hours is a lot of time for favorable trends, that's for sure. We need more than just trends. Our current storm was well modeled by a few models in the grand scheme of things at the beginning of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Morris said: We need more than just trends. Our current storm was well modeled by a few models in the grand scheme of things at the beginning of the week. This storm went from being possibly 4" for NYC at 12z Monday to a 8-12" storm, and that was with 72 hours. We have another 24 hours of lead time. Not saying that lead time is the cure for all storms, but I think that it's enough time for the Monday storm to take a more favorable track. It certainly has the option to trend north, or not trend at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, Morris said: We need more than just trends. Our current storm was well modeled by a few models in the grand scheme of things at the beginning of the week. There's always day 7. Euro nails the cape pretty good on this run. Interesting week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Major Storm Along Coast EMCWF 850 Next Thursday\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 What does the 12z euro show?You're looking at it. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: You're looking at it. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Euro is the only model to show this now though right? What are the possibilities it actually happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Wait until you see day 6. 19 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Major Storm Along Coast EMCWF 850 Next Thursday\ 11 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Euro is the only model to show this now though right? What are the possibilities it actually happens? Major pattern support for a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The GFS is OTS right now for next Thursday. Being that it is a Miller A system I would favor the euro right now as that seems to handle those types of systems better in the LR, I think. And the euro has an absolute monster. Another fun 7 days of tracking ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Major Storm Along Coast EMCWF 850 Next Thursday\ Is it too warm for NYC/LI?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Is it too warm for NYC/LI?? With that Position and Strength should not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 43 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Major pattern support for a MECS with the Nao forecasted rising rapidly towards neutral and above that is considered an east coast storm signal in itself along with the positive PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: with the Nao forecasted rising rapidly towards neutral and above that is considered an east coast storm signal in itself along with the positive PNA After seeing those I'm gonna bite on this event...I like this one, probably more than any other event this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 So I understand the 2nd analog of next week's midweek potential is the Blizzard of '78, which is insane. I went back to revisit that set up and compared it to the 12z Euro. The below article notes the below as contributing factors: 1) Unusually strong high pressure over central Canada with very cold air, and nearly stationary high pressure over Greenland 2) Low pressure at the surface and aloft moved out of the Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic coast 3) Cold Canadian air to the north, low pressure to the south and relatively warm ocean air mixed together to form “The Blizzard”, which stalled off southern New England for nearly 36 hours http://www.weather.gov/media/box/officePrograms/science/Blizzard_of_1978.pdf (see slides 19-24) Thoughts on how 'closely' (or not) this set up resembles those points? I'm really just learning at this point, so my view could be totally off. Included some screen shots from the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday 12z Euro below to compare. Wednesday 12z - H pressure in place over southern, central Canada. L pressure begins to move in from GL region. Greenland covered by H pressures. Note L pressure down in Alabama. Thursday 12z - H pressure in place over southern, central Canada, moves slightly further south. Friday 12z - H pressure still in place just south of Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 30 minutes ago, rmo09001 said: So I understand the 2nd analog of next week's midweek potential is the Blizzard of '78, which is insane. I went back to revisit that set up and compared it to the 12z Euro. The below article notes the below as contributing factors: 1) Unusually strong high pressure over central Canada with very cold air, and nearly stationary high pressure over Greenland 2) Low pressure at the surface and aloft moved out of the Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic coast 3) Cold Canadian air to the north, low pressure to the south and relatively warm ocean air mixed together to form “The Blizzard”, which stalled off southern New England for nearly 36 hours http://www.weather.gov/media/box/officePrograms/science/Blizzard_of_1978.pdf (see slides 19-24) Thoughts on how 'closely' (or not) this set up resembles those points? I'm really just learning at this point, so my view could be totally off. Included some screen shots from the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday 12z Euro below to compare. Wednesday 12z - H pressure in place over southern, central Canada. L pressure begins to move in from GL region. Greenland covered by H pressures. Note L pressure down in Alabama. Thursday 12z - H pressure in place over southern, central Canada, moves slightly further south. Friday 12z - H pressure still in place just south of Greenland. another contributing factor for a big east coast storm is the MJO forecasted to go strongly into Phase 8 especially in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just a reminder - this was the 18Z GFS on Friday Feb 3 , and its output for Thursday Feb 9th - showing how poorly it handled yesterdays Major Storm at 138 hours. Seems both Upton and Mt. Holly are believing todays non storm GFS and discounting the Euro which shows a storm coming up the coast next week which also supports the current pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Which would you believe ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Which would you believe ? Heart shape* just sayin... so close to Valentine's Day... it's a sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 GFS still worlds apart from the Euro on the Thursday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: GFS still worlds apart from the Euro on the Thursday event He did improve though Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: GFS still worlds apart from the Euro on the Thursday event Gfs didn't show yesterdays storm till last Sunday - If the Euro keeps showing the phasing solution - have to go with the Euro - matches the pattern with all the blocking - 50/50 low rapidly rising NAO towards neutral and a positive PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 GFS showed some interaction earlier in the run. In the end, there is a traffic jam in the N Atlantic, which ultimately causes the ST jet system to exit east. This COULD be one of those unusual cases in which the NAO tanks so significantly that the NE misses out despite the potential. Outside a reloading of the pattern in very late Feb into early March, I honestly see next week as one of the NYC metro's last chances for something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 UKMET has a late phase for the midweek system. Too little, too late, but it looks better than 12z. Hopefully the Euro doesn't back down; that would be a pretty bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Euro's still got the storm but it's wide right now, kind of like that UK depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Euro still looks good. Bombs out to 973 in northern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Looks like a late phase on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, NortheastPAWx said: Euro's still got the storm but it's wide right now, kind of like that UK depiction. ? Looks to pass through the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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