winterwx21 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: GFS hasn't been doing bad this winter. The Euro on the other hand. GFS was the model that was most bullish on the super bowl storm, and it was also the most bullish on a front end dump for tuesday. It has been horrible lately and overhyping every potential event, so we definitely need to see other models come aboard before believing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: GFS was the model that was most bullish on the super bowl storm, and it was also the most bullish on a front end dump for tuesday. It has been horrible lately and overhyping every potential event, so we definitely need to see other models come aboard before believing this. Other models are on board AO is falling and the PNA is rising This looks legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 0Z GEM Shows wave strung out weak stays south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Other models are on board AO is falling and the PNA is rising This looks legit which models are on board ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Other models are on board AO is falling and the PNA is rising This looks legit What other model? I don't see any other major model on board for a decent snowstorm. GGEM isn't. We'll see if Euro improves later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Shades of January 2008. Cold air takes too long to arrive and by then the precip is all gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: which models are on board ? Everyone Are you seriously taking the CMC seriously? 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: What other model? I don't see any other major model on board for a decent snowstorm. GGEM isn't. We'll see if Euro improves later tonight. Every model has the wave. It's just the location of the wave Just now, Stormlover74 said: Shades of January 2008. Cold air takes too long to arrive and by then the precip is all gone What shades? The storm happened already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Remember the Anafront last winter? The wave kept on coming back northwest . Not saying this is going to be the same but we should watch out for that. The ridge is still there. The AO looks good, PNA also is rising. Recipe for a nice storm. Anyway, off to bed. Work in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Shades of January 2008. Cold air takes too long to arrive and by then the precip is all gone As I recall it was up to 50 in NYC within hours of that storm...think this would be a different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Everyone Are you seriously taking the CMC seriously? Every model has the wave. It's just the location of the wave What shades? The storm happened already? The CMC has been better than GFS lately. CMC backed down on the super bowl storm more quickly, and never showed a front end dump for Tuesday. GFS has been by far the worst model lately, so we have to be skeptical about this big snowstorm solution it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: As I recall it was up to 50 in NYC within hours of that storm...think this would be a different setup. That storm was a different setup. The storm was dependent on the low bombing out near out area. The area was under a heavy snow warning with 6-12 inches predicted. The low bombed out near SNE instead of near our area. I hate that storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, winterwx21 said: The CMC has been better than GFS lately. CMC backed down on the super bowl storm more quickly, and never showed a front end dump for Tuesday. GFS has been by far the worst model lately, so we have to be skeptical about this big snowstorm solution it's showing. I didn't say a big snowstorm is on the way but a nice snow event isnt off the table. Heck, I would be happy with a 1-3 inch event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS may be out to lunch but I'm sorry, the CMC is too. The GFS isn't going to be THAT wrong on this sort of setup at 84 hours. The 500 pattern to me doesn't look conducive at all to what the GFS shows but I think something way more dynamic than the CMC will occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The Ukie would produce something for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Ukie would produce something for the area It looks like it's more west of the GFS at 72. That may actually be a rain event for the coast potentially although no way to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 0z GEFS is more amped than the 18z GEFS and slightly more west than the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 During the February 1-15, 1981-2010 period, an EPO-/PNA+/AO- pattern saw the percentage of days on which measurable snowfall fell in NYC that was 30% above climatology (4" or greater was 15% above climatology). This does not mean that there would be a big storm, but at least some accumulation is most definitely something that bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 00z GEFS 18z LP locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Long range looks better on the GFS Maybe a possible storm mid month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 38 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Shades of January 2008. Cold air takes too long to arrive and by then the precip is all gone Or shades of Feb 2014. Which it actually worked for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The NAVGEM is insanely far NW too by NavGEM standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAVGEM is insanely far NW too by NavGEM standards Picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAVGEM is insanely far NW too by NavGEM standards I feel like the coast will have to start worrying about temps. Hopefully not. But, if the rates are like the GFS, then that shouldn't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The way things have gone so far this winter I am certainly not banking on a snowstorm for the NYC metro on Thursday, at least not yet. Its good to see some of the models showing a storm though, hoping with the NAO going negative and the PNA positive things might actually work in our favor for once. Would like to see where things sit 24 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Man the GFS goes nuts for this month literally the pattern could produce several snow events. This month could be a historic snowy month for this sub forum take a look yourself what the GFS 18z depicts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GFS 0z run continues to have an amazing pattern coming up look at this storm for the February 16th period...cmc has a HECS for the same storm. Amazing! These are the snowfall maps for the next 240 hours for our area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 At least a half dozen snow chances on tonight's GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Looks like there are two camps for the Monday system. The southern track has gained more support since the 06z run. Hopefully we see it gain some more. There's still enough time for this system to trend favorably. Look what happened with the one today. 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 On 2/8/2017 at 0:13 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: At least a half dozen snow chances on tonight's GFS run Looks like the pattern has certainly taken a turn. Today was just the first shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Wow. Let's get this a little farther south and we might have something to talk about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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