NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 4:51 AM, brooklynwx99 said: The trend is undeniable on the CMC: slower, deeper NS energy and faster SS energy. Hopefully this continues. Expand the models only started trending last Sunday for this past Thursdays storm -repeat ? this GEM is trending towards the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 GFS also it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Ridge orientation out west is different on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Lets see of the Euro makes some good moves tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Anyone with paid maps of the euro for Thursday free maps looked like a pretty good set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 6:20 AM, swamplover56 said: Anyone with paid maps of the euro for Thursday free maps looked like a pretty good set up Expand Nope. Well this is pretty disappointing to say the least. GFS long range win over the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 7:04 PM, mimillman said: Nope. Well this is pretty disappointing to say the least. GFS long range win over the euro? Expand In New England forum they said high end advisory for Easter CT. Any snow at all for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On the 500mb it looks like the GFS is trending toward a stormier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 10:40 PM, Rittenhouse said: On the 500mb it looks like the GFS is trending toward a stormier solution. Expand Yeah it's really close to phasing on the18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 11:10 PM, dmillz25 said: Yeah it's really close to phasing on the18z gfs Expand I guess we'll all be up late again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 11:12 PM, Paragon said: I guess we'll all be up late again lol Expand The ns digs a bit more this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 11:12 PM, Paragon said: I guess we'll all be up late again lol Expand (Hopefully) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 11:14 PM, dmillz25 said: The ns digs a bit more this run Expand I think we won't really know until the current storm fully develops offshore and leaves our area. We've seen this before where details can't be ironed out until the current system gets out of the way. Give it til Monday night or Tuesday. Using the "48 hr rule" is usually good with coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 11:15 PM, weatherfreeeeak said: (Hopefully) Expand Yep, especially since it looks to get boring for awhile after that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 11:19 PM, Paragon said: Yep, especially since it looks to get boring for awhile after that system. Expand I am willing to state that next week is our last chance of a 6+ inch snowfall for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 11:47 PM, Enigma said: I am willing to state that next week is our last chance of a 6+ inch snowfall for the season. Expand you haven't been around too long have you ? look at the record books - still have 7 - 8 weeks remaining on the calendar where there have been 6 + inch storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 I've witnessed snowstorms that produced 6+ into April so no the winter is definitely not over at least statistically! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 11:18 PM, Paragon said: I think we won't really know until the current storm fully develops offshore and leaves our area. We've seen this before where details can't be ironed out until the current system gets out of the way. Give it til Monday night or Tuesday. Using the "48 hr rule" is usually good with coastals. Expand if you can get the current storm to stall near 50/50 the Thursday northern branch would try and dig southeast towards the mid atlantic and merge with the southern stream system to get under and around the 50/50 need stronger blocking and that can still happen so can't totally write this one off yet..........the EURO showed this a couple of days ago the phasing and the storm was stacked vertically to the south - so maybe the EURO will go back to that solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/13/2017 at 12:18 AM, WeatherFeen2000 said: I've witnessed snowstorms that produced 6+ into April so no the winter is definitely not over at least statistically! Expand Don't worry Feen, we've got plenty of time left. Nothing like a good April snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 I have a sneaky suspicion we are going to get hit just given the larger players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Not to mention the fact that the warm patterns only tend to last approx. 2 to 3 weeks to far this winter. If this hold true we may have another opening early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 11:56 PM, NEG NAO said: you haven't been around too long have you ? look at the record books - still have 7 - 8 weeks remaining on the calendar where there have been 6 + inch storms Expand I am a red tagger/2005 PSU meteo grad. I've been around long enough. Based upon my perception of the pattern, whether it be somewhat tongue and cheek, I think our chances are done (for NYC metro) for 6+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/13/2017 at 4:01 AM, Enigma said: I am a red tagger/2005 PSU meteo grad. I've been around long enough. Based upon my perception of the pattern, whether it be somewhat tongue and cheek, I think our chances are done (for NYC metro) for 6+ event. Expand The pattern doesn't look good for a 6+ event? It surely does this upcoming week if the 2 streams meet. After that we will get a brief warmup but then there are signs of another cool down with a possible storm near the end of February. Winter isn't even over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/13/2017 at 4:05 AM, Snow88 said: The pattern doesn't look good for a 6+ event? It surely does this upcoming week if the 2 streams meet. After that we will get a brief warmup but then there are signs of another cool down with a possible storm near the end of February. Winter isn't even over yet. Expand Read the thread. I said in the post prior that next week is our last chance. My suspicion is that the Atlantic log jam will prevent the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Well gfs wasn't even close at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 If a major winter storm is going to happen on Thursday then today would be the day for the models to start picking up on it, but IMO stick a fork in it, its done. It is honestly a waste of a decent pattern but unfortunately its a timing issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/13/2017 at 4:21 AM, snow1 said: Well gfs wasn't even close at 0z Expand New GFS op, GEFS, CMC op, CMC ensembles, UKMET, Euro op, EPS: All nothing, zero, zilch, nada, zippo. Unanimous. This one's dead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/13/2017 at 9:53 AM, snowman19 said: New GFS op, GEFS, CMC op, CMC ensembles, UKMET, Euro op, EPS: All nothing, zero, zilch, nada, zippo. Unanimous. This one's dead.... Expand Yep what a shame Euro looked really good for Thursday's event on the 12z run last Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/13/2017 at 10:40 AM, Snow88 said: Yep what a shame Euro looked really good for Thursday's event on the 12z run last Friday. Expand Another opportunity for a big storm goes by the boards. What a frustrating winter it has been thus far. Damn Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 If there were to be any changes it would have to come today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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