UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 As January draws to an end, February timeframe is quickly approaching for model discussion, most notably a persistent run by run hint of a Super Bowl timeframe storm... GFS has had this for several days, while still in fantasy land, discuss away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 12z GFS and Tail end of GGEM continue to have the Super Bowl weekend storm, GFS is ancoastal snowstorm, GGEM cuts as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 12z GFS and Tail end of GGEM continue to have the Super Bowl weekend storm, GFS is ancoastal snowstorm, GGEM cuts as of now 12Z runs were great moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 1035H parked directly over the Hudson valley on the euro for that super bowl storm, looks like it would cut like GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 18z GFS seems to bite at the Feb 1st light snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 And in fantasy land the 18z gfs now has a cutter like other guidance for the super bowl storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: And in fantasy land the 18z gfs now has a cutter like other guidance for the super bowl storm I'd expect a week of back and forth atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 00z GFS looks better with the midweek clipper. This has a lot of time to trend, so it could turn out to be a nice event. The GFS has been moving in the more amplified direction in the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Oz gfs and cmc still have a big storm signal at 240 long way out but fun to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 48 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Oz gfs and cmc still have a big storm signal at 240 long way out but fun to see Impressive to see how consistent it has been for a storm out in lala land. Midweek needs to be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 hours ago, snywx said: Impressive to see how consistent it has been for a storm out in lala land. Midweek needs to be watched Add the euro to that list, now showing snowstorm, had a cutter at 12z yesterday also euro wants nothing to do with that midweek clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just out of curiosity how did these models that are seeing something Super Bowl weekend do a week or so before the last event or the ones prior, did they all have it in their sites ? I am just wondering if any of them this year have been consistent when showing something this far out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 GFS is relentless with the super bowl weekend storm, euro has a nice snowstorm signature as well, as does ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Few chances of snow coming up with multiple waves. A lot of model watching coming up the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Both the Euro and GFS have a nice PNA spike in the 8-10 day range so that would be indictive of a period that needs to be watched. The blocking was much stronger on the Euro than it was the GFS. Something to keep the weenies busy for the next few days anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 59 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Just out of curiosity how did these models that are seeing something Super Bowl weekend do a week or so before the last event or the ones prior, did they all have it in their sites ? I am just wondering if any of them this year have been consistent when showing something this far out ? The models are good enough these days that you can usually see a signal pretty far out. If you look at GFS runs from a week ago, it was already showing activity around the period of February 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Pretty terrible pattern advertised on the 12z GFS at least for the next seven days. Multiple injections of cold air but the Southern stream goes compleltely dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Pretty terrible pattern advertised on the 12z GFS at least for the next seven days. Multiple injections of cold air but the Southern stream goes compleltely dead. CMC shows an inland runner for next week and the GFS shows a miss I like where the GFS is with that storm, just a weak low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: CMC shows an inland runner for next week and the GFS shows a miss I like where the GFS is with that storm, just a weak low off the coast. The GFS trended away from a big storm. The energy goes to El Paso instead and then gets sheared out. What eventually sprouts the coastal storm is an entirely different shortwave. By the time that comes through, heights over the Atlantic are about as flat as a pancake and the system is kicked OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS trended away from a big storm. The energy goes to El Paso instead and then gets sheared out. What eventually sprouts the coastal storm is an entirely different shortwave. By the time that comes through, heights over the Atlantic are about as flat as a pancake and the system is kicked OTS. 1 run isnt a trend It's way better than showing an inland storm like the CMC is showing. Long week to go with multiple waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 indices are looking crappier...so far the ao/nao forecast for a negative plunge dies for at least the third time this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 1 run isnt a trend It's way better than showing an inland storm like the CMC is showing. Long week to go with multiple waves I'd prefer the cmc solution, over what GFS has as of now, generally in recent patterns, those storms tend to trend west and favor the coast, ill take 6-10" then tapering off as drizzle Over watching the coast get another 2feet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 58 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 1 run isnt a trend It's way better than showing an inland storm like the CMC is showing. Long week to go with multiple waves Then at least call a spade a spade, wichcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS trended away from a big storm. The energy goes to El Paso instead and then gets sheared out. What eventually sprouts the coastal storm is an entirely different shortwave. By the time that comes through, heights over the Atlantic are about as flat as a pancake and the system is kicked OTS. Seems like people have forgotten about what a terrible job the GFS did with the January 7th event at this range - todays 12Z GEFS is not in agreement with the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Seems like people have forgotten about what a terrible job the GFS did with the January 7th event at this range - todays 12Z GEFS is not in agreement with the OP run. The 12z Euro solution resembles the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 GEFS individuals not skewed by a few complete misses actually have more members that either cut, or hit.. then shear out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 GFS looks good. I like the setup in general. Nice ridge out west, a large vortex over SE Canada providing confluence, and some slight Greenland ridging. I know that this will change over the next 8-10 days, all of the major globals have the same general setup for such a large lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 GEFS has a good signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS has a good signal. This storms has been pushed back now nearly 48 hours.... originally a Super Bowl Sunday afternoon into Monday event, and Now GFS has it as a late Monday early Tue this things wayyyyy out in fantasy land, especially now, its past the 240 mark lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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