showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, kurtstack said: the long range is always a crap shoot on the models - some are probably being more critical of the long range models this year since it is all we have had to look at. In other years we have enough short or medium range events to track that the long range model inaccuracies dont get as much attention. There are some years the models do well with the large scale patterns in the longer ranges.Those are years though that don't have so many conflicting signals to sort through as we see this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 CMC puts down an inch with the clipper, but it looks pretty iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Little clippers are really tricky. They typically aren't resolved until the vort is entering the conus and even then things can move around right up until game time. If it's dead on guidance sunday morning then I'll punt. Until then it's still alive imho. 1" would be my biggest event of the year so I could still score YUGE. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 New twist on the 12Z GFS vs. previous runs. Drives the PV farther south towards New England and then rotates it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 5 hours ago, showmethesnow said: PSU alluded to this and I tend to agree but with what the models show at this point I think that Feb 6 storm is probably destined to run up to our north and west. Hope I am wrong but best case there may be that we see a front end thump to a dry slot. The potential follow up roughly 3 days later looks to have more promise at this time. Of course we are talking 10+ days on both these possible features so who the heck knows what we see actually verify. It depends how all the energy ejects. Absent better blocking we need several weaker waves vs a consolidated system. The euro was split between stalling things out to our west and going nuts with the ridging in the east and sliding waves east under the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 southern slider for the day 9-10 threat. The important thing so at this point is that it is still there imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 12z UKIE has a lil something from teh clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Snow hole over DC. I'm out. Burke gets nippled. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 The transient NAO ridge relaxes during the 2/4-7 period. GEFS has a cluster of storms that approach from the south during that time with departing cold hp. There's also a cluster with a lakes low so that's an obvious flag. However, a relaxing nao ridge is a pretty typical time for something more meaningful to work out. Beyond that the only saving grace on the GEFS is a basic ridge west/trough east config but the high latitudes look like poop again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 wow...every model run is a disaster and snow just avoids us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 At least the cutter look day 9-10 is going away, that was giving me fits of rage. Not that cold and dry is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 20 minutes ago, Ji said: wow...every model run is a disaster and snow just avoids us We are under the dirt that is on the valley floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Euro a little juicier with the clipper. Still weak sauce but better vort pass. Half inch in most of central MD and 1-2" near Leesburg to the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro a little juicier with the clipper. Still weak sauce but better vort pass. Half inch in most of central MD and 1-2" near Leesburg to the blue ridge. Let us know if the Euro will have it's usual semi-permanent 10 day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 After this winter so far, I would almost rather have a decent pattern in place with a couple chances of snow rather than being in the bullseye 5 days out. On one hand there is nothing to seriously track at this point but I'm okay with that, as long as we have cold air lurking around. We've had to many storms get us excited in the 4-8 day range only to see them disappear or go to our north or south. As to the long range, last I checked it is January 27. We've still got a solid 5-6 weeks to score something. Even if the long range screws us in February, we still have that outside shot at something crazy in the first couple weeks of March - especially west of 95. And given the fact that the patterns this winter have been so transient, I think the way we are going to score will be something that pops up in the 3-4 day range. It's really not worth looking at any specifics beyond 4 days this winter or any winter for that matter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let us know if the Euro will have it's usual semi-permanentnt 10 day storm. I'm guessing it finally moves it forward to day 9. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm guessing it finally moves it forward to day 9. We shall see. Progress. In 2 more weeks, we should be able to get it to consistently showing a day 8 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Progress. In 2 more weeks, we should be able to get it to consistently showing a day 8 storm. If I get 1" from the clipper I will not only have gotten my biggest event of the year but also nearly doubled my annual snowfall. With that kind of action staring me in the face I can't even think about d8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: If I get 1" from the clipper I will not only have gotten my biggest event of the year but also nearly doubled my annual snowfall. With that kind of action staring me in the face I can't even think about d8-10. If there was a 2-4" snowfall amount on the horizon, like in 3-5 days, I'd allow a thread and pin it like it was last year's blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let us know if the Euro will have it's usual semi-permanent 10 day storm. lol model pattern this year. Euro shows a 10 day snowstorm...no other model does. by the next run...its gone. Forever. until 4 days later when the euro shows a new 10 day snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: If there was a 2-4" snowfall amount on the horizon, like in 3-5 days, I'd allow a thread and pin it like it was last year's blizzard. Don't let Bob start it I fired myself from the long range thread starting for the rest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, Ji said: lol model pattern this year. Euro shows a 10 day snowstorm...no other model does. by the next run...its gone. Forever. until 4 days later when the euro shows a new 10 day snowstorm And people accuse the euro of being inconsistent. pffft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Euro looks way colder in the long range then last few runs. I hate to try to predict the future of a run but this doesn't look like a cutter solution so far. (Talking about the feb 5-7 threat window) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 d10 threat still looking pretty solid on the euro. If we can just figure out how to move it to day 9 it would help a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: And people accuse the euro of being inconsistent. pffft Other then shifting the boundary 250 miles south day 7 this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: d10 threat still looking pretty solid on the euro. If we can just figure out how to move it to day 9 it would help a little. Is it an overrunning scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: d10 threat still looking pretty solid on the euro. If we can just figure out how to move it to day 9 it would help a little. I haven't looked at the surface but a glance at the h5 and 850 levels look nice to me. Yea it's day 10 but this threat actually is moving in time it's just the last couple runs it was clearly going to cut on the op euro. The gfs has been 12 hours faster also with this system the last few runs but it's the same threat. I'm not saying that it's any more believable but this threat has been on the map in this general iteration for several days now. Some runs have less blocking or more trough in the west and a cutter. Others have this nice wave under the cold look. This isn't locked in yet but nice trends away from the cutter look yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 lol....back to 10 day storm. By the time it reaches day 1, it will be late march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: I haven't looked at the surface but a glance at the h5 and 850 levels look nice to me. Yea it's day 10 but this threat actually is moving in time it's just the last couple runs it was clearly going to cut on the op euro. The gfs has been 12 hours faster also with this system the last few runs but it's the same threat. I'm not saying that it's any more believable but this threat has been on the map in this general iteration for several days now. Some runs have less blocking or more trough in the west and a cutter. Others have this nice wave under the cold look. This isn't locked in yet but nice trends away from the cutter look yesterday. has a nice low pressuere system building into the great lakes too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, Ji said: lol....back to 10 day storm. By the time it reaches day 1, it will be late march It's really day 8. Today is almost over and Mondays suck so it can be eliminated. We would be tracking it hard by Thursday so it's closer than you might think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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