February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[Wonderdog]

6z GFS throws a couple of bones to us. Friday , Feb 3 and Monday Feb 6 have snow in our area on both days. Actually the Feb 6 storm seems more vigorous but that's outside our 7 day window. Both storms are moving west to east but the Feb 6 storm seems to have more promise if it can get under us some more.

[Wonderdog]

2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

6z GFS throws a couple of bones to us. Friday , Feb 3 and Monday Feb 6 have snow in our area on both days. Actually the Feb 6 storm seems more vigorous but that's outside our 7 day window. Both storms are moving west to east but the Feb 6 storm seems to have more promise if it can get under us some more.

Actually the Feb 6 event comes to us from the Tennessee Valley so even though no blocking (right now) to speak of, it bears watching.

[Wonderdog]

6z    Feb. 6

 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Actually the Feb 6 event comes to us from the Tennessee Valley so even though no blocking (right now) to speak of, it bears watching.

The h5 look for late next week isnt bad on the GEFS and EPS. A stronger ridge over GL would be helpful, and any less than advertised there would be a struggle with enough cold air.

Also the EPS doesnt look too bad this cycle days 12-15.

[Wonderdog]

0z run Feb 6th

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

CMC and Euro have a little something. NAM now hinting at it. Worth watching because it still could be a 1-2 deal for a relatively small area. Does not look to be a widespread event at this point.

Its a week out, but next Friday looks interesting on the GFS.

Was looking over the Sun/Mon deal a little ago. Though the vortmax isn't quite as potent as previous runs I still am at lose at the lack of surface reflection we are seeing. I know the globals can have issues with mesoscale features in the longer range but I would think we would be close enough in that they should be picking up on it by now. One thing that I did notice is that the lift we see as the energy rotates through is paltry to say the least. The only thing I can figure is the models now seem to be going toward the idea of popping a low off the coast and it is possibly causing havoc as we happen to be in the middle of the transition period.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The h5 look for late next week isnt bad on the GEFS and EPS. A stronger ridge over GL would be helpful, and any less than advertised there would be a struggle with enough cold air.

Also the EPS doesnt look too bad this cycle days 12-15.

Actually didn't mind the EPS in the longer range. Though it's not a slam dunk by any means it does present a look that would gives us our chances.

[showmethesnow]

30 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

6z GFS throws a couple of bones to us. Friday , Feb 3 and Monday Feb 6 have snow in our area on both days. Actually the Feb 6 storm seems more vigorous but that's outside our 7 day window. Both storms are moving west to east but the Feb 6 storm seems to have more promise if it can get under us some more.

PSU alluded to this and I tend to agree but with what the models show at this point I think that Feb 6 storm is probably destined to run up to our north and west. Hope I am wrong but best case there may be that we see a front end thump to a dry slot. The potential follow up roughly 3 days later looks to have more promise at this time. Of course we are talking 10+ days on both these possible features so who the heck knows what we see actually verify.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually didn't mind the EPS in the longer range. Though it's not a slam dunk by any means it does present a look that would gives us our chances.

That part of my most was in reference to the 12z run yesterday, which was pretty awful looking towards the end. 0z looked better.

The new weeklies have a mild pacific look. No idea if that will end up right, but it is a big difference from the previous run. The way I see it the advertised pattern looks good enough overall the next 10 days or so. We basically have 2 weeks to score an event or 2. Who knows beyond that.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

That part of my most was in reference to the 12z run yesterday, which was pretty awful looking towards the end. 0z looked better.

The new weeklies have a mild pacific look. No idea if that will end up right, but it is a big difference from the previous run. The way I see it the advertised pastern looks good enough overall the next 10 days or so. We basically have 2 weeks to score an event or 2. Who knows beyond that.

Yeah, glanced over the weeklies and cringed.

Swore off looking over the longer range 10 days ago only to have you and PSU reel me back in yesterday with your upbeat posts over the last week. Of course as soon as I spent some time looking into them, the models went into the crapper on the following runs. Go figure.

[PaEasternWX]

How does h5 look. Could this trend better. This is around 180 hours out. So not complete fantasy land.

 

 

[BristowWx]

56 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

6z GFS throws a couple of bones to us. Friday , Feb 3 and Monday Feb 6 have snow in our area on both days. Actually the Feb 6 storm seems more vigorous but that's outside our 7 day window. Both storms are moving west to east but the Feb 6 storm seems to have more promise if it can get under us some more.

Friday, Feb 3rd as depicted on 6z would be a great little event to enjoy.  nice way to kick off weekend.  if we could score inch or 2 and have it stay on the ground it would be great.  I wouldn't ask for any more. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

How does h5 look. Could this trend better. This is around 180 hours out. So not complete fantasy land.

 

 

0z has nothing like it.  it would be nice if it just came as is.  any stronger and our luck it would cut. 

[BristowWx]

I don't think 6z GEFS is a disaster but I suppose the low heights in AK are a concern.  but that is way out anyway.  doesn't look torchy but nothing to get excited about.  PSU might say different.

[showmethesnow]

14 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

How does h5 look. Could this trend better. This is around 180 hours out. So not complete fantasy land.

 

 

 

Progressive pattern with very little room for it to amplify at 500's. So as depicted here there would be very little improvement possible. But we are talking 180hrs so...

 

 

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

PSU alluded to this and I tend to agree but with what the models show at this point I think that Feb 6 storm is probably destined to run up to our north and west. Hope I am wrong but best case there may be that we see a front end thump to a dry slot. The potential follow up roughly 3 days later looks to have more promise at this time. Of course we are talking 10+ days on both these possible features so who the heck knows what we see actually verify.

It would just be nice to track something, anything.

[mitchnick]

I hope, if nothing else,  we can all agree that every model ensemble suite (GEFS, EURO, AND GEPS) has sucked in light of their changing forecasts. None can claim victory since they've all shown warm and cold.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

It would just be nice to track something, anything.

I am tracking the Monday clipper. Its up first. Euro and GFS have flip flopped, with the Euro now showing more of a coastal low and some light precip. Still decent potential for an inch or 2 IMO. Operational models are struggling with it still. Soon it will be be in meso model range.

[WinterWxLuvr]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I hope, if nothing else,  we can all agree that every model ensemble suite (GEFS, EURO, AND GEPS) has sucked in light of their changing forecasts. None can claim victory since they've all shown warm and cold.

To expand on this, I think this has been a really tough year at times for the models in the long range.

Several times the models have given a good look for the day 8-15 period only to lose it after about 3 days.  There must be some feature in the 3-7 range that is forecast but then changes as we get to that day 3-7 period that ends up completely changing the day 10-15 look.  I don't know what the feature is that ends up throwing the long range for a loop.  Perhaps something like an MJO forecast that goes awry?  I don't know.  I don't even know if I'm explaining what I'm thinking well.  Perhaps others can weigh in.

Many have mentioned the fact that every modeled -AO/-NAO has vanished as we move forward.  Wonder what leads the models to predict that look, and wonder what feature is causing that look to eventually be wrong.  It's happened several times already.

[kurtstack]

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

To expand on this, I think this has been a really tough year at times for the models in the long range.

Several times the models have given a good look for the day 8-15 period only to lose it after about 3 days.  There must be some feature in the 3-7 range that is forecast but then changes as we get to that day 3-7 period that ends up completely changing the day 10-15 look.  I don't know what the feature is that ends up throwing the long range for a loop.  Perhaps something like an MJO forecast that goes awry?  I don't know.  I don't even know if I'm explaining what I'm thinking well.  Perhaps others can weigh in.

Many have mentioned the fact that every modeled -AO/-NAO has vanished as we move forward.  Wonder what leads the models to predict that look, and wonder what feature is causing that look to eventually be wrong.  It's happened several times already.

 I don't think it's worth over thinking this.  Weather models have little to know statistical skill in the 8+ day leads.  

[Wonderdog]

10 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

 I don't think it's worth over thinking this.  Weather models have little to know statistical skill in the 8+ day leads.  

Agreed.

[mappy]

170203/0900Z 171  08003KT  27.9F  SNOW   17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058   17:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
170203/1200Z 174  08005KT  27.4F  SNOW   15:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139   16:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
170203/1500Z 177  05006KT  28.7F  SNOW    5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068   13:1|  3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26  100|  0|  0
170203/1800Z 180  02005KT  31.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   13:1|  3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28  100|  0|  0

from 06z GFS

[mappy]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Now why are you going all rebel on us and posting numbers? We need maps MAPPY!

its from the GFS, look at the damn maps yourself  

[WinterWxLuvr]

53 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

 I don't think it's worth over thinking this.  Weather models have little to know statistical skill in the 8+ day leads.  

It's not overthinking anything.  It's called curiosity.

[Round Hill WX]

51 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

 I don't think it's worth over thinking this.  Weather models have little to know statistical skill in the 8+ day leads.  

Specific details absolutely. Long-lead patterns  can have better skill when various indices are more pronounced. This fall and winter we've seen a transition from a monster nino to a weak nina. The QBO never transitioned from a west based to an east based as expected. This has influenced the AO and made it positive. That then creates as fast flow and little blocking. The MJO has been in the circle of death as well. The result has been a fast, repetitive pattern that models are having difficulty with, more so than other years. It is complicated and not easily explained. My go to with long lead forecasting this winter has been to follow seasonal progression. And its worked. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, glanced over the weeklies and cringed.

Swore off looking over the longer range 10 days ago only to have you and PSU reel me back in yesterday with your upbeat posts over the last week. Of course as soon as I spent some time looking into them, the models went into the crapper on the following runs. Go figure.

Even I got to the point of frustration yesterday after the string of crap the models threw at us in the evening. I also realize the guidance long range has been particularly jumpy lately. So I took the night off  from the board and guidance and planned a snow trip for my son and a ski trip for myself and didn't look at anything until now.  It was cathartic.  

Seems we took a step back from the ledge. I think the models are dealing with some conflicting signals and it's making them unreliable long range even for basic pattern trends. They can't agree on the mjo or the soi.  The effects of the strat warm might be fighting with some of the less favorable influences like the qbo and then what happens with the mjo run to run us a tie breaker and shifts things one way or another. Their obviously struggling. 

last night someone commented on why the guidance keeps erroneously trying to tank the nao.  The models take into account all the current conditions including sst and current teleconnections then use our best mathematical abilities to project how those factors will evolve the pattern into the future. Problem is we can't measure all these factors with 100% accuracy globally plus we don't know how things like sst or solar input will change tomorrow. We can't even initialize the whole atmosphere totally accurate and even if we did a change in solar or sst the next day makes it irrelevant. So we have to understand the limitations there. Then there is the limitation that our ability to quantify every variable in the primitive equations is not complete. 

So they cannot be completely accurate. But they do have validity. Their output is based on sound principles. So if the guidance keeps trying to develop high latitude blocking it is because there are factors being input that argue that outcome. Something about how the pattern "COULD" evolve based on past and these equations argues for it. But obviously there is another factor not being given enough weight by these equations that is overriding that signal. I don't know what exactly that is.

Perhaps the record uncharted level qbo is not being correctly weighted and is overriding other factors that favor blocking. It would be interesting to see a post mort on that if someone does the data analysis.  Obviously the guidance is missing and under weighting one of the pattern drivers here. 

[dallen7908]

Doesn't much of the skill in the 2-3 week time frame come from teleconnections via the MJO? Those teleconnections are weak when the MJO is in the COD.  Much effort has gone into forecasting the MJO in global models, progress is being made - Earlier this week, I saw talk on changes made to the NASA GISS Model E that resulted in a much better forecast of it.  Presumably, the higher resolution global models do an even better job. 

I also asked someone working on the GFS's replacement if they could bring back fantasy storms in the 1-2 week time frame (I miss them).  She didn't make any promises. 

Saw a poster on the National Blend Model too.  It weights information from ~8 model/sources (GEM GFS MOS etc) to come up a forecast. Available to anyone with a noaa e-mail address although I think anyone can grab the grib files if they want. It is updated hourly and meant to be a starting point for forecasters. 

Also saw a talk on the "anomalous" QBO we've been experiencing.  Speaker laughed when I asked if it explained our lack of snow. 

Well the most snow I've experienced this "winter" was near Granby, CO on September 23/24th, just under an inch. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

Clipper looks pretty dead. Figures.

[kurtstack]

the long range is always a crap shoot on the models - some are probably being more critical of the long range models this year since it is all we have had to look at.  In other years we have enough short or medium range events to track that the long range model inaccuracies dont get as much attention.

[showmethesnow]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Clipper looks pretty dead. Figures.

Northern stream energy dives even deeper this run. The strip of heavier snow, relatively speaking, that you normally see on the northern side of those features is now down on the VA/N CA line. Getting ready to punt this for anyone from northern Va and north except for maybe a stray flurry.