showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: The 6z GFS is close. Very close to something big. Very notable shift north with the low's track. Though now we may have to begin talking temp issues? Good sign though that the ops are now throwing out storm solutions. Will be interesting to see what the GEFS throws at us and whether this shift is real or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Very notable shift north with the low's track. Though now we may have to begin talking temp issues? Good sign though that the ops are now throwing out storm solutions. Will be interesting to see what the GEFS throws at us and whether this shift is real or not. Told you it was coming NW As you said the EPS looks very encouraging. Decent support of the op run for a coastal low and a light to moderate event late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6z GEFS took a huge jump up from 0z. Few those big hitters have some mixing, but wow, what a turn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Many 6z gefs members do look juicy . Let's bring it home. PSU made fun of me for tracking this threat. Should be exciting 12z runs today. Looks warm to me on op. This thing will end up in Ohio valley before we know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Told you it was coming NW As you said the EPS looks very encouraging. Decent support of the op run for a coastal low and a light to moderate event late week. The one red flag I do see when I look at both the GFS and the Euro (ensemb and ops) is that the cold is not already in place. We are waiting for the 850's to bleed in from the north and west as the storm is already progressing through the area. So basically seeing rain and then waiting for a flip over to snow. With the system being progressive as depicted now that never bodes well, especially for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 30 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The one red flag I do see when I look at both the GFS and the Euro (runs and ops) is that the cold is not already in place. We are waiting for the 850's to bleed in from the north and west as the storm is already progressing through the area. So basically seeing rain and then waiting for a flip over to snow. With the system being progressive as depicted now that never bodes well, especially for the cities. There are potential issues, but there always are lol. If the wave is weak it likely just gets shunted offshore after a brief period of rain/snow showers. Lots can go wrong, but its trackable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 8 hours ago, BTRWx said: How did I not know about this?! Very cool! eta: new favorite movie! You got to love how the only really unchanged engineering or technology from this Documentary is D.C.'s metro. Show this to WMATA! There is another good video on youtube from ABC33/40 out of Birmingham, AL; we just got the fringe impacts here in Middle TN; I show the same video in my Accounting class to demonstrate the economic impact of weather, and to satisfy my own fascination! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Heppy Super Bowl Sunday! Since I've already taken the swan dive 8x off the cliff, I'm back for this weeks torture. Seriously at least we have something to track right? Rain to snow deal though? Never an easy way to win for us around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 12 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Jan 2000 will go down as the greatest modern reverse bust of all time. It will never happen again. Not with that kind of magnitude. Models are far far better now. 12 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Think 79 might argue with that. Of course the models weren't as advanced then. 2+ feet of snow, drifting everywhere, schools closed for a week, cold as all get out for days afterward. 79 gets my vote. Edit: Remember going to bed with possibly flurries forecast only to wake up the next morning with close to a foot on the ground and thunder-snow. Bob, After reading up a little bit and refreshing my memory somewhat I think I will amend my statement. From the pure standpoint of a failure of the models and their capabilities at their respective times as well as the Met community and their response with the obvious situational changes occurring, Jan 2000 clearly stands above 1979. Now as far as the personal aspect, 1979 is top dog by far for myself and probably for most that had the pleasure to enjoy the experience. The element of surprise as well the impact felt was far greater then experienced with 2000. With 2000, anybody that took a mild interest in weather and followed radar was very much aware something was afoot as early as the afternoon/evening even over the Met's declarations of otherwise. 79 on the other hand most forecasts were of flurries with maybe an inch or so of snow south and east as people went to bed. To have the storm literally blow up over night in the prime spot for our region caught everyone by total surprise. If you were also to consider impact, though 2000 was great, 79 was of a magnitude even greater. With all things considered 79 probably ranks in the top 3 for myself personally and makes a very strong case for being #1 overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, Scraff said: Heppy Super Bowl Sunday! Since I've already taken the swan dive 8x off the cliff, I'm back for this weeks torture. Seriously at least we have something to track right? Rain to snow deal though? Never an easy way to win for us around here. I heard rumors that we should be on the lookout for snow zombies. Guess the rumors were true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I heard rumors that we should be on the lookout for snow zombies. Guess the rumors were true. Are there any other examples of models turning around, around 100 hours out to go from nothing to a big storm?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Told you it was coming NW As you said the EPS looks very encouraging. Decent support of the op run for a coastal low and a light to moderate event late week. I haven't followed this closely, but many North trends in situations like this are actually west trends. I'd say many if the earlier non storm solutions actually blew up a storm but way to the east. Perhaps I'm wrong in this situation and I'm not going to put the time in to find out, but many times that's the case. The early Jan storm was plenty enough north, just not at out longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said: Are there any other examples of models turning around, around 100 hours out to go from nothing to a big storm?. Plenty, and this possibility didn't just come out of thin air. It was there on the op about 4 days ago and has been on the ens members all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Bob, After reading up a little bit and refreshing my memory somewhat I think I will amend my statement. From the pure standpoint of a failure of the models and their capabilities at their respective times as well as the Met community and their response with the obvious situational changes occurring, Jan 2000 clearly stands above 1979. Now as far as the personal aspect, 1979 is top dog by far for myself and probably for most that had the pleasure to enjoy the experience. The element of surprise as well the impact felt was far greater then experienced with 2000. With 2000, anybody that took a mild interest in weather and followed radar was very much aware something was afoot as early as the afternoon/evening even over the Met's declarations of otherwise. 79 on the other hand most forecasts were of flurries with maybe an inch or so of snow south and east as people went to bed. To have the storm literally blow up over night in the prime spot for our region caught everyone by total surprise. If you were also to consider impact, though 2000 was great, 79 was of a magnitude even greater. With all things considered 79 probably ranks in the top 3 for myself personally and makes a very strong case for being #1 overall. I was in college and recall the forecast for northern Anne Arundel County was for 6-8". I went out to shovel around 10pm and knew that we would bust high since we had around 6". But I used to listen in those days to a trucker's radio show out of Richmond on WRVA am (the "Big" John Trimbull show if anyone remembers), and they had a foot+ by midnight, so I thought we could really cash in. I did wake up for "the show" around 4am when the really heavy stuff began (3"/hr.) That storm will live in my weenie mind forever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Are there any other examples of models turning around, around 100 hours out to go from nothing to a big storm?. Maybe not so much for big storms but for somewhat modest to moderate events sure. That is why you hear us always talking about something popping up in the short range when we are dealing with a somewhat favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Plenty, and this possibility didn't just come out of thin air. It was there on the op about 4 days ago and has been on the ens members all along. Yeah...it's slim, damn near invisible perhaps...but the potential threat has shown up as you say. Mostly in some ensemble members. It's still very dubious I think for it to come together just right, but maybe a bit more support looking at last night's model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I heard rumors that we should be on the lookout for snow zombies. Guess the rumors were true. Hey now, I resemble that remark! Though technically I didn't really give in (yet!!) to jumping, so guess I wouldn't quite be of the undead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I was in college and recall the forecast for northern Anne Arundel County was for 6-8". I went out to shovel around 10pm and knew that we would bust high since we had around 6". But I used to listen in those days to a trucker's radio show out of Richmond on WRVA am (the "Big" John Trimbull show if anyone remembers), and they had a foot+ by midnight, so I thought we could really cash in. I did wake up for "the show" around 4am when the really heavy stuff began (3"/hr.) That storm will live in my weenie mind forever! Lived in Owings Mills and was attending High School at the time. Remember going to bed around 8 or 9 to calls of flurries for my area only to be woken up by thunder early in the morning. To look outside to see a foot on the ground, the wind howling, and near whiteout conditions is snow weenie Heaven. Think that was the first and possibly only time I have experienced true blizzard conditions for an extended period of time. Drifting was phenomenal, snowfall was exceptional with roughly 2 1/2 feet in the area, and the rates I will probably never see again in my lifetime. Another aspect that made it enjoyable was the hard cold that set up shop after the storm. Don't remember how long the cold lasted, 5 days, week? But I do remember the snow and ice had staying power. For those that didn't experience it they really don't know what they missed. To me it was probably a once in a lifetime storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 GFS ens mean from 00z to 06z jumped from 1" to 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS ens mean from 00z to 06z jumped from 1" to 3". What has been lacking this year with every potential event has been support from the ensembles to the operational. For now, we finally have it. How can we keep it is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I was in college and recall the forecast for northern Anne Arundel County was for 6-8". I went out to shovel around 10pm and knew that we would bust high since we had around 6". But I used to listen in those days to a trucker's radio show out of Richmond on WRVA am (the "Big" John Trimbull show if anyone remembers), and they had a foot+ by midnight, so I thought we could really cash in. I did wake up for "the show" around 4am when the really heavy stuff began (3"/hr.) That storm will live in my weenie mind forever! Remember that show on WRVA very well. For those who don't know, they would announce weather obs for locations along interstates throughout the eastern US. It was a great way to track the weather back when there werent many options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 This is a thread the needle to the max. We need the perfect track at the perfect time to allow sufficient cooling. Tough cut-off will result. All we can hope for now is to stay near the cut-off with details to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, WVclimo said: Remember that show on WRVA very well. For those who don't know, they would announce weather obs for locations along interstates throughout the eastern US. It was a great way to track the weather back when there werent many options. The only way for obs. I used to anxiously wait for obs right after the top of the hour and when he missed a location, I would be so pi$$ed. Lol. But he would occasionally mention the radar with movement, etc. That was so sweet because no one but the nws had access to radar back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Lived in Owings Mills and was attending High School at the time. Remember going to bed around 8 or 9 to calls of flurries for my area only to be woken up by thunder early in the morning. To look outside to see a foot on the ground, the wind howling, and near whiteout conditions is snow weenie Heaven. Think that was the first and possibly only time I have experienced true blizzard conditions for an extended period of time. Drifting was phenomenal, snowfall was exceptional with roughly 2 1/2 feet in the area, and the rates I will probably never see again in my lifetime. Another aspect that made it enjoyable was the hard cold that set up shop after the storm. Don't remember how long the cold lasted, 5 days, week? But I do remember the snow and ice had staying power. For those that didn't experience it they really don't know what they missed. To me it was probably a once in a lifetime storm. Ok hold on, you're saying a storm busted from flurries to 2.5 feet?? That's ridiculous lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Ok hold on, you're saying a storm busted from flurries to 2.5 feet?? That's ridiculous lol. As best as I can recall yeah. Though the flurries forecast could have possibly been from the afternoon and so they could have upped it later on without me being aware. Remember thinking that maybe we could luck into the possibility of an inch or so that they were calling for just to our south and east. Got lucky, I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Is this considered a big storm? Or is the possibility there? Not really considered as a big storm possibility per se, but perhaps (just perhaps!) something halfway decent to develop along the front after it goes through later this week. It looks like a slim chance, but the idea has shown up in individual ensemble members for a little while, and it's now showing up some in the deterministic solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Imho and not to be a debbie downer, just being realistic based on the pattern evolution leading up to this potential Thursday threat, even if this ends up being close to what the GFS showed at 6z, the big cities are going to have a heck of a time overcoming that crud air mass prior to the storm. This looks like a warm-ish rain to mid 30s wet snow type deal and quite honestly, they rarely pan out. I think we would need to slow the system down about 6-12 hours like a few of the GEFS members show and allow the cold air to settle in prior to any system. I could be wrong, but that's my take on this one attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Is this considered a big storm? Or is the possibility there? 4" would be a huge storm this year. The bar is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Imho and not to be a debbie downer, just being realistic based on the pattern evolution leading up to this potential Thursday threat, even if this ends up being close to what the GFS showed at 6z, the big cities are going to have a heck of a time overcoming that crud air mass prior to the storm. This looks like a warm-ish rain to mid 30s wet snow type deal and quite honestly, they rarely pan out. I think we would need to slow the system down about 6-12 hours like a few of the GEFS members show and allow the cold air to settle in prior to any system. I could be wrong, but that's my take on this one attm. Agree, it's not the easiest setup especially closer to the metro areas. But in a year that has given us virtually nothing, it's the best we can track for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Agree, it's not the easiest setup especially closer to the metro areas. But in a year that has given us virtually nothing, it's the best we can track for now! Agree with this, it's all we have. Of course no doubt I will be monitoring every model run from now thru late Wednesday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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