psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro is not 2-3 inches for our area It has 2-3" from a front running wave day 9 before a massive cutter washes it all away day 10 and we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 EPS was not great. All the the nicely positioned positive heights up top, suddenly went over the top lol. Cold retreats northward towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS was not great. All the the nicely positioned positive heights up top, suddenly went over the top lol. Cold retreats northward towards the end of the run. just wait 12 hours. The Ensembles jump around just as much as the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: just wait 12 hours. The Ensembles just around just as much as the OP I am just stating what I saw on the run. Still looks pretty decent overall through day 12. Its *really* LaLa land beyond that, so who knows if this means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS was not great. All the the nicely positioned positive heights up top, suddenly went over the top lol. Cold retreats northward towards the end of the run. EPS was a conflicted run. Snowiest run in a long time. Most of it centered on the day 10 threat. The mean there is useless as it's a 50/50 split between runs that cut way way west. Like west of Chicago. And runs that take a southern track along a colder boundary. Seems the euro is split on the blocking and its suppression of the flow. I found 24 in the west cuter camp and 28 in the south track. Not all of them snow there are 8 that suppres the storm south or shear it to nothing. 20 decent snows in our area from that threat. That's a pretty good signal at day 10. After that the run goes to crap fast. The blocking breaks down, the PV slides back up and ridging develops across the conus under it. However there is another tick up in snow day 14-15 and a few heavy hitters and the ridging is muted so there must be a divergent camp within the members. The EPS has been bouncing around a lot lately from some great looks to some bad ones and back again. My confidence in anything, even general trends, past 10 days is near 0 right now. Beyond models there are conflicting signals. It's not shocking the euro and gefs diverge given they have some drastically different mjo forecasts. Gefs keeps it in the circle of death before spiking late towards better phases while the euro takes it into the tour of warm phases. So seeing the euro move towards a warm look isn't shocking but the question is which guidance package is gutting that. Mjo has been pretty weak all year and the latest spike in phase 8/1 did nothing to help us much so I have no read on that. Still not sure what if any impact the strat warming is going to have but I would have expected to start seeing signs of it in guidance by now so my hopes for much help there are fading. Who knows maybe it is helping and the half decent pattern coming is just the best we can do this year given the qbo and awful base state of the pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS was a conflicted run. Snowiest run in a long time. Most of it centered on the day 10 threat. The mean there is useless as it's a 50/50 split between runs that cut way way west. Like west of Chicago. And runs that take a southern track along a colder boundary. Seems the euro is split on the blocking and its suppression of the flow. I found 24 in the west cuter camp and 28 in the south track. Not all of them snow there are 8 that suppres the storm south or shear it to nothing. 20 decent snows in our area from that threat. That's a pretty good signal at day 10. After that the run goes to crap fast. The blocking breaks down, the PV slides back up and ridging develops across the conus under it. However there is another tick up in snow day 14-15 and a few heavy hitters and the ridging is muted so there must be a divergent camp within the members. The EPS has been bouncing around a lot lately from some great looks to some bad ones and back again. My confidence in anything, even general trends, past 10 days is near 0 right now. Beyond models there are conflicting signals. It's not shocking the euro and gefs diverge given they have some drastically different mjo forecasts. Gefs keeps it in the circle of death before spiking late towards better phases while the euro takes it into the tour of warm phases. So seeing the euro move towards a warm look isn't shocking but the question is which guidance package is gutting that. Mjo has been pretty weak all year and the latest spike in phase 8/1 did nothing to help us much so I have no read on that. Still not sure what if any impact the strat warming is going to have but I would have expected to start seeing signs of it in guidance by now so my hopes for much help there are fading. Who knows maybe it is helping and the half decent pattern coming is just the best we can do this year given the qbo and awful base state of the pacific. I think most likely we will just luck into something with a briefly favorable look. Sort of how the suppressed storm occurred in early Jan. I am done with the idea that we see a legit -AO or NAO; most likely just transient +heights in those domains. And especially after the vanishing act the EPS pulled today lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: 2-3 inches? Hmmm... guess I didn't look as close as I should have ETA: Ah... its from January 31st 12z to Feb 5th 12z time period... so 12z TUES is the starting time on Maue's map he posted Perhaps Cohen's tweet should have read "thinking we have a -AO this winter? The SAI theory says YES fuggetaboutit!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Anybody notice the trend for Wed? 0z had the -10 850 to my south. 3 runs later it has inched its way to Detroit. Grain of salt on these models at range, if 5-6 days can be called at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody notice the trend for Wed? 0z had the -10 850 to my south. 3 runs later it has inched its way to Detroit. Grain of salt on these models at range, if 5-6 days can be called at range. I'm beginning to think it's over (before it started). We can't even get a snowstorm to pop up in the long run, not that it would verify anyway. I can't recall going this long without seeing a real snow threat. I know it's hard to ignore last years blizzard but without that, this will make two winters in a row that were basically snowless in and around the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: I'm beginning to think it's over (before it started). We can't even get a snowstorm to pop up in the long run, not that it would verify anyway. I can't recall going this long without seeing a real snow threat. I know it's hard to ignore last years blizzard but without that, this will make two winters in a row that were basically snowless in and around the cities. I was just thinking that. It's the op run but there isn't even a dusting. The cold all but vanishes. Really blow away by the level of suckage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody notice the trend for Wed? 0z had the -10 850 to my south. 3 runs later it has inched its way to Detroit. Grain of salt on these models at range, if 5-6 days can be called at range. Inched? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Bad run of the weeklies incoming. The panels aren't out yet but the tellevonnections update first and they all look like crap. +AO nao throughout and unfavorable pacific most of the time too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 21 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Inched? Lol That's was sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Ok they updates. It's bad. Ugly ugly ugly bad. Pretty much winters over after day 18 but it's worse because today's euro flipped to it sooner around day 12. Then it's positive AO and conus torch the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Bad run of the weeklies incoming. The panels aren't out yet but the tellevonnections update first and they all look like crap. +AO nao throughout and unfavorable pacific most of the time too Not exactly sure how the weeklies are much different that the CFSv2. Ive caught many trout that flop less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ok they updates. It's bad. Ugly ugly ugly bad. Pretty much winters over after day 18 but it's worse because today's euro flipped to it sooner around day 12. Then it's positive AO and conus torch the rest of winter. Good. Now I think we've got a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Good. Now I think we've got a shot. I was just thinking that. They have been awful this year. I'm not necessarily buying it just saying it was a really bad run. No sugar coating it. It really was saying winter over after 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok they updates. It's bad. Ugly ugly ugly bad. Pretty much winters over after day 18 but it's worse because today's euro flipped to it sooner around day 12. Then it's positive AO and conus torch the rest of winter. Thanks for everything you did this winter. All the analysis and model interpretation. It gave us hope when there wasn't any. Maybe next year will be better. Now I must get in shape for early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Hate to say it but the gefs made a jump towards the EPS in the long range. And it trended worse with the day 10 too. More ridging and less blocking to keep things south. Really bad afternoon and evening of runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hate to say it but the gefs made a jump towards the EPS in the long range. And it trended worse with the day 10 too. More ridging and less blocking to keep things south. Really bad afternoon and evening of runs today. This sunday-monday clipper needs to get its ass in gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hate to say it but the gefs made a jump towards the EPS in the long range. And it trended worse with the day 10 too. More ridging and less blocking to keep things south. Really bad afternoon and evening of runs today. It has been slowly losing the -AO for a few runs now. Then we got the vanishing act from the EPS run today. And now this rather hideous weeklies run. Lol good thing I was in the mood to drink tonight. Pitchers and catchers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Man, had a long meeting today and just got home. You guys cancelled basically everything. I picked the wrong week to stop snorting beer and drinking weed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Man, had a long meeting today and just got home. You guys cancelled basically everything. I picked the wrong week to stop snorting weed. Never leave us alone at the wheel again. We suck. We have run aground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Never leave us alone at the wheel again. We suck. We have run aground. Getting close to time to root for the combined worst winter on record for the 3 airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Man, had a long meeting today and just got home. You guys cancelled basically everything. I picked the wrong week to stop snorting beer and drinking weed. We know who to blame now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Ready to go on the watch list? Sure put me on it. I would be honored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 12 hours ago, PaEasternWX said: Wow euro is close to something good for the storm around 150-160 hours out. Lets focus on that one for now before we focus on the Feb 6th one. Still focused on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Sure put me on it. I would be honored When I go out, I'm going in style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Hey Zen master....add a new tag to this thread. Let it read "F*** This Sh*t!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: When I go out, I'm going in style. Whats my NAO/blocking count up to now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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