clueless Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: La Niña to El Niño summers are almost never warm in the Eastern US The only redeeming feature of this pattern will be not to torch this summer. Sorry @WxWatcher007 Waiting for NPZ to chime in any moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 46 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I'm about to the point of actively rooting for futility. Kind of like hoping the Browns would finish 0-16, but then they had to screw that up with a single win! I'm glad I'm not the only one. If we are going to fail, let's fail hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It depends on specific location. Places like Richmond and the eastern shore are doing pretty good actually mostly due to one storm and their very low snow climo. But for most of the mid atlantic its been awful. My specific location is on pace to have our third worse winter ever in 122 years of records. Even a fluke 6" event would only bump me to 4th worst winter in 122 years lol. So absent a crazy turn around its going to end up on the god awful list up here. The cities are a bit different as their climo is lower so one fluke can surge them up the list faster but they also are doing even worse right now. Baltimore I think still has their worst winter ever record in play if they get no more snow. Bottom line is so far its been in line with the truly epic fail winters on record. Even up around my area we are on track for one of the least snowiest winters. Of course we can get lucky in March around here but it's been just as bad as the whole mid Atlantic here. Only places getting crushed area the upper interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2017 Author Share Posted February 4, 2017 2 hours ago, PennQuakerGirl said: So quantitatively, how stingy has this winter been in terms of record-keeping? Check the thread on that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: LOL he is determined to go down with the ship, it would appear. I guess every good captain is? It's beyond crazy at this point. He did sort of kinda admit his temperatures have no shot. Duh. But he still is ranting about cold and snow coming said he can pull some save. But you can tell by reading between the lines he truly has given up for our area. One example of knowing how to read jb was a few days back he made a comment that the long range wasn't bad because the 850 0 line was NJ to KS so it could still be snowy with a southern storm track. Well yea if you live north of a NJ to KS line which we don't lol. But that's the trick. He didn't lie he simply didn't talk about the fact that we're screwed. Snow is coming...for someone. It's like when he does a whole video on a two day transient cold shot. Who cares but technically it's not inaccurate. Insignificant and misleading but not a lie. But again what do we expect him too say? He sorta caved his forecast was a bust but is insisting we will still get a snowy end. If he says "it doesn't look good and we probably don't get much the rest of the way" he loses $10,000 when all the weenies cancel one month sooner. Cap at its best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yup... Agree with this sentiment 100 percent. Might at least be nice to get outside some. And keep just a small eye on whether we do actually score a late season snow! My hope is that this is not a prelude to a God-awful hot summer! Let's go for no more snow and 70's in February. We can do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Let's go for no more snow and 70's in February. We can do this. Haha, we probably can manage that! How about 70s, followed by a big snowstorm end of Feb or early Mar, then torch again right after that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 SE storm still has legs it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 59 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I'm glad I'm not the only one. If we are going to fail, let's fail hard. The way things are going, our fail might fail at being a total fail! But still enough to suck. Which I suppose is is still a fail in the end, haha! I just talked in a circle there, I know. "There's a hole in the bucket..." and all that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's beyond crazy at this point. He did sort of kinda admit his temperatures have no shot. Duh. But he still is ranting about cold and snow coming said he can pull some save. But you can tell by reading between the lines he truly has given up for our area. One example of knowing how to read jb was a few days back he made a comment that the long range wasn't bad because the 850 0 line was NJ to KS so it could still be snowy with a southern storm track. Well yea if you live north of a NJ to KS line which we don't lol. But that's the trick. He didn't lie he simply didn't talk about the fact that we're screwed. Snow is coming...for someone. It's like when he does a whole video on a two day transient cold shot. Who cares but technically it's not inaccurate. Insignificant and misleading but not a lie. But again what do we expect him too say? He sorta caved his forecast was a bust but is insisting we will still get a snowy end. If he says "it doesn't look good and we probably don't get much the rest of the way" he loses $10,000 when all the weenies cancel one month sooner. Cap at its best. You have to realize that cold/snow forecasts are partially a political statement for him now. Yes, he legitimately loves cold and snow like we do, but every time there's a record low or a heavy snowfall he thinks that's showing everyone that globular worming is just a lie of the LMSMQLSMUSLSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: You have to realize that cold/snow forecasts are partially a political statement for him now. Yes, he legitimately loves cold and snow like we do, but every time there's a record low or a heavy snowfall he thinks that's showing everyone that globular worming is just a lie of the LMSMQLSMUSLSM. Yup, like that idiot Senator a couple years ago who threw a snow ball on the floor of the Senate in February as a statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like a little more seperation between wave 1 and wave 2 looking at 500s . This results in a little more consolidated low which is still a miss but a closer miss. Probably too little too late but since we're still 5+ days out I'm still following . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest gfs vorticity at hour 138 showing follow up energy rounding . Just need a few more shifts and we're good ..lol http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500hv&rh=2017020412&fh=138&r=na&dpdt= Was looking at that and started to get a sliver of hope. Then I looked at the CMC which actually had something at 6z. It lost it completely at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Just now, MD Snow said: Was looking at that and started to get a sliver of hope. Then I looked at the CMC which actually had something at 6z. It lost it completely at 12z. The GFS this run actually attempted to trend towards what the CMC had been showing for awhile which was the high not pressing all that far south after the cutter and the ensuing wave which might produce a snow event being way further north than the GFS was showing. The GFS was consistently trying to bury the high quickly into Georgia or Florida but the CMC for days now has had something develop under that high in the southern Midwest or Ohio valley. That scenario makes more sense given cold presses this winter have been weaker than forecast in the medium range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hard to believe I might have to write off 2017 in February lol. 75 might as well be 95 for NPZ The new summer ends in mid January and starts in mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I never get tired of the chase Me either just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS this run actually attempted to trend towards what the CMC had been showing for awhile which was the high not pressing all that far south after the cutter and the ensuing wave which might produce a snow event being way further north than the GFS was showing. The GFS was consistently trying to bury the high quickly into Georgia or Florida but the CMC for days now has had something develop under that high in the southern Midwest or Ohio valley. That scenario makes more sense given cold presses this winter have been weaker than forecast in the medium range True. Funny though how the CMC completely lost it this run. Maybe it's just a blip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Marginal improvement in gefs. Develops eastern trough a bit better day 10-13 then late it's not as far from a better look as it was. Get the ridge go pull north and stj to cut under and it could be headed towards the better look week 4 on the weeklies. Baby steps but I'm looking for signs it's going to cave in this PAC torch idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 GFS and Euro agree 10 days out It would be good if we had more cold air ind the PNA ridge was less transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: The Gefs starts to pop a west ridge near 190 hour and doesn't start to break it down till like hour 280 or so... .fwiw . That seems like a fairly decent window. It would stay longer if we had a Greenland block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The Gefs starts to pop a west ridge near 190 hour and doesn't start to break it down till like hour 280 or so... .fwiw . That seems like a fairly decent window. If that energy comes out faster it could be a threat. It's low but there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I saw my first crocuses popping up in my hood today. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I saw my first crocuses popping up in my hood today. Lol More worried about the trees. I see some budding. Would be bad to see bloom and then crushing freeze. It's too early to think it will be spring from now until actual spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: More worried about the trees. I see some budding. Would be bad to see bloom and then crushing freeze. It's too early to think it will be spring from now until actual spring Those trees will be fine. A fruit tree might not bear fruit in a worse case scenario but your run of the mill deciduous tree will be just fine no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Those trees will be fine. A fruit tree might not bear fruit in a worse case scenario but your run of the mill deciduous tree will be just fine no matter what. Good to know. One thing never in short supply on our board is smart people. We are lucky from that aspect even if the winter sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: More worried about the trees. I see some budding. Would be bad to see bloom and then crushing freeze. It's too early to think it will be spring from now until actual spring Those buds will disappear just as fast after next week's torch. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Start a thread. Given the dire straits we are in, we should start a "Small Hope Thread" for anything, even the smallest slither of guidance. (And then if it gets larger, come back here, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Good to know. One thing never in short supply on our board is smart people. We are lucky from that aspect even if the winter sux I've seen trees fully leafed in late May drop every leaf after a hard freeze. Only saw it once when I lived in swva. Took about 3-4 weeks for the trees to fully grow new leaves. Looked crazy in early June with bare trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I got nothing growing here. No buds anywhere. It hasn't been that warm. Y'all are livin in an urban heat island lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.