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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It depends on specific location.  Places like Richmond and the eastern shore are doing pretty good actually mostly due to one storm and their very low snow climo.  But for most of the mid atlantic its been awful.  My specific location is on pace to have our third worse winter ever in 122 years of records.  Even a fluke 6" event would only bump me to 4th worst winter in 122 years lol.  So absent a crazy turn around its going to end up on the god awful list up here.  The cities are a bit different as their climo is lower so one fluke can surge them up the list faster but they also are doing even worse right now.  Baltimore I think still has their worst winter ever record in play if they get no more snow.  Bottom line is so far its been in line with the truly epic fail winters on record. 

Even up around my area we are on track for one of the least snowiest winters. Of course we can get lucky in March around here but it's been just as bad as the whole mid Atlantic here. Only places getting crushed area the upper interior. 

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

LOL he is determined to go down with the ship, it would appear. I guess every good captain is?

It's beyond crazy at this point. He did sort of kinda admit his temperatures have no shot. Duh.  But he still is ranting about cold and snow coming said he can pull some save. But you can tell by reading between the lines he truly has given up for our area. One example of knowing how to read jb was a few days back he made a comment that the long range wasn't bad because the 850 0 line was NJ to KS so it could still be snowy with a southern storm track. Well yea if you live north of a NJ to KS line which we don't lol. But that's the trick. He didn't lie he simply didn't talk about the fact that we're screwed. Snow is coming...for someone. It's like when he does a whole video on a two day transient cold shot. Who cares but technically it's not inaccurate. Insignificant and misleading  but not a lie. 

But again what do we expect him too say?  He sorta caved his forecast was a bust but is insisting we will still get a snowy end. If he says "it doesn't look good and we probably don't get much the rest of the way" he loses $10,000 when all the weenies cancel one month sooner. Cap at its best. 

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1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yup... Agree  with this sentiment 100 percent. Might at least be nice to get outside some. And keep just a small eye on whether we do actually score a late season snow! My hope is that this is not a prelude to a God-awful hot summer!  

Let's go for no more snow and 70's in February.  We can do this.  

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59 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

I'm glad I'm not the only one. If we are going to fail, let's fail hard. 

The way things are going, our fail  might fail at being a total fail! But still enough to suck. Which I suppose is is still a fail in the end,  haha! I just talked in a circle there, I know. "There's a hole in the bucket..." and all that! 

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40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's beyond crazy at this point. He did sort of kinda admit his temperatures have no shot. Duh.  But he still is ranting about cold and snow coming said he can pull some save. But you can tell by reading between the lines he truly has given up for our area. One example of knowing how to read jb was a few days back he made a comment that the long range wasn't bad because the 850 0 line was NJ to KS so it could still be snowy with a southern storm track. Well yea if you live north of a NJ to KS line which we don't lol. But that's the trick. He didn't lie he simply didn't talk about the fact that we're screwed. Snow is coming...for someone. It's like when he does a whole video on a two day transient cold shot. Who cares but technically it's not inaccurate. Insignificant and misleading  but not a lie. 

But again what do we expect him too say?  He sorta caved his forecast was a bust but is insisting we will still get a snowy end. If he says "it doesn't look good and we probably don't get much the rest of the way" he loses $10,000 when all the weenies cancel one month sooner. Cap at its best. 

You have to realize that cold/snow forecasts are partially a political statement for him now.  Yes, he legitimately loves cold and snow like we do, but every time there's a record low or a heavy snowfall he thinks that's showing everyone that globular worming is just a lie of the LMSMQLSMUSLSM.  

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

You have to realize that cold/snow forecasts are partially a political statement for him now.  Yes, he legitimately loves cold and snow like we do, but every time there's a record low or a heavy snowfall he thinks that's showing everyone that globular worming is just a lie of the LMSMQLSMUSLSM.  

Yup, like that idiot Senator a couple years ago who threw a snow ball on the floor of the Senate in February as a statement. 

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24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest gfs vorticity at hour 138 showing follow up energy rounding . Just need a few more shifts and we're good ..lol

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500hv&rh=2017020412&fh=138&r=na&dpdt=

Was looking at that and started to get a sliver of hope. Then I looked at the CMC which actually had something at 6z. It lost it completely at 12z. 

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Just now, MD Snow said:

Was looking at that and started to get a sliver of hope. Then I looked at the CMC which actually had something at 6z. It lost it completely at 12z. 

The GFS this run actually attempted to trend towards what the CMC had been showing for awhile which was the high not pressing all that far south after the cutter and the ensuing wave which might produce a snow event being way further north than the GFS was showing.  The GFS was consistently trying to bury the high quickly into Georgia or Florida but the CMC for days now has had something develop under that high in the southern Midwest or Ohio valley.  That scenario makes more sense given cold presses this winter have been weaker than forecast in the medium range 

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33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS this run actually attempted to trend towards what the CMC had been showing for awhile which was the high not pressing all that far south after the cutter and the ensuing wave which might produce a snow event being way further north than the GFS was showing.  The GFS was consistently trying to bury the high quickly into Georgia or Florida but the CMC for days now has had something develop under that high in the southern Midwest or Ohio valley.  That scenario makes more sense given cold presses this winter have been weaker than forecast in the medium range 

True. Funny though how the CMC completely lost it this run. Maybe it's just a blip....

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Marginal improvement in gefs. Develops eastern trough a bit better day 10-13 then late it's not as far from a better look as it was. Get the ridge go pull north and stj to cut under and it could be headed towards the better look week 4 on the weeklies.  Baby steps but I'm looking for signs it's going to cave in this PAC torch idea. 

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I saw my first crocuses popping up in my hood today. Lol

More worried about the trees.  I see some budding.  Would be bad to see bloom and then crushing freeze.   It's too early to think it will be spring from now until actual spring

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

More worried about the trees.  I see some budding.  Would be bad to see bloom and then crushing freeze.   It's too early to think it will be spring from now until actual spring

Those trees will be fine.  A fruit tree might not bear fruit in a worse case scenario but your run of the mill deciduous tree will be just fine no matter what.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Those trees will be fine.  A fruit tree might not bear fruit in a worse case scenario but your run of the mill deciduous tree will be just fine no matter what.

Good to know.  One thing never in short supply on our board is smart people.  We are lucky from that aspect even if the winter sux

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

More worried about the trees.  I see some budding.  Would be bad to see bloom and then crushing freeze.   It's too early to think it will be spring from now until actual spring

Those buds will disappear just as fast after next week's torch. lol

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Good to know.  One thing never in short supply on our board is smart people.  We are lucky from that aspect even if the winter sux

I've seen trees fully leafed in late May drop every leaf after a hard freeze.  Only saw it once when I lived in swva.  Took about 3-4 weeks for the trees to fully grow new leaves.  Looked crazy in early June with bare trees.

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