Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Heh, gefs jumped towards the eps in the long range. Pretty hideous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, gefs jumped towards the eps in the long range. Pretty hideous run. Yea went from a very good 18z run to utter crap like the EPS. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 By no means a hopeless run, at such time frames as three or four systems exist, each of them has some chance of shifting or intensifying into a snowstorm. And there's the ongoing retrogression in Europe as a signal that blocking may not be too far away. I think the chances of one major snowfall are probably equal to or a bit better than 50-50, the chances of two or more about 30%, and the chances of at least one moderate event something like 75-80 per cent. The trailing wave scenario reminds me a bit of how the good period in 2010 began (Jan 27 a warm frontal system, Jan 30 the first decent snowstorm across the southern MA). It would be interesting to see how well that was predicted eight or nine days in advance. I seem to remember interest in the Jan 30 storm being mostly anecdotal until fairly close to the event. (the anecdote being that my research model predicted a snowfall around then). The lunar dates are the same in these two cases. Full moon was Jan 30, 2010 and will be Feb 11, 2017. I think this is the reason for the two-part warm/cold sequence, the warmer first part being a better supported energy peak associated with declination. And if this first storm comes into focus, chances seem good that a better snowfall pattern will change the details further down the line. (that event coming off the base of the trough already looks like 3-5"). The event near the end of the GFS run over PA/NY could dig more and be a Hatteras crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 HP in Missouri at 0z and at 6z it's in Mississippi effectively squashing the LP and our hopes and dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 6z folds like a cheap suit. When the Euro says no, it's no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 5 hours ago, Roger Smith said: By no means a hopeless run, at such time frames as three or four systems exist, each of them has some chance of shifting or intensifying into a snowstorm. And there's the ongoing retrogression in Europe as a signal that blocking may not be too far away. I think the chances of one major snowfall are probably equal to or a bit better than 50-50, the chances of two or more about 30%, and the chances of at least one moderate event something like 75-80 per cent. The trailing wave scenario reminds me a bit of how the good period in 2010 began (Jan 27 a warm frontal system, Jan 30 the first decent snowstorm across the southern MA). It would be interesting to see how well that was predicted eight or nine days in advance. I seem to remember interest in the Jan 30 storm being mostly anecdotal until fairly close to the event. (the anecdote being that my research model predicted a snowfall around then). The lunar dates are the same in these two cases. Full moon was Jan 30, 2010 and will be Feb 11, 2017. I think this is the reason for the two-part warm/cold sequence, the warmer first part being a better supported energy peak associated with declination. And if this first storm comes into focus, chances seem good that a better snowfall pattern will change the details further down the line. (that event coming off the base of the trough already looks like 3-5"). The event near the end of the GFS run over PA/NY could dig more and be a Hatteras crusher. Dreaming. Looks pretty hopeless to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 6z folds like a cheap suit. When the Euro says no, it's no. Even if it showed a hit at this point I don't think it would matter. The end of the op run is straight ugly. Like winter is just saying I'm done see you next season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: How bout we get some snow before we worry about it melting. Well I'm sure it will since we always have a good "look" after 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Been AWOL the last few days with the flu so its nice to come back and see things have not changed one bit. Well, except for maybe the increasing tones of anger and desperation. So let me hit this running. Roughly day 11-14 shows promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 And just when we have the towels in our hands.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 57 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well I'm sure it will since we always have a good "look" after 10 days. It's pretty obvious there is some underlying factor or factors in the base state this winter that the guidance is not correctly weighting that pulls the pattern in the wrong direction. The primitive equations algorithms aren't trolling us. They are seeing the initial conditions entered and weighing all the data then saying "this is what the pattern should look like". Their not crazy because some of the analog based guidance has also shown a good look for us many times. So the problem is there are known pattern influences saying "this should happen" but something we're missing or don't know how to correctly weight is pulling it the other way. From 10-15 days it's not seen but as it gets closer it's effects on the initial conditions allow the models to finally see "oh I guess that's not happening". That said I'm not joining the models suck club. They have sucked with one thing. The nao/AO. The general long wave pattern has been modeled relatively well but that one specific thing has been crucial to our snow chances. So im going to give jb a backhanded compliment now. One of the reasons I do sometimes watch his videos is once in a while he or Joe d will show a nugget of data that can be useful that I may not have found on my own. Problem is jb often misuses that data to further his cold hype agenda. But I know just enough to see that same clue and use it to come to a different conclusion. Way back in Early December he showed an analog based guidance that showed based on all the other known factors what the pattern should look like if the nao is negative vs positive. The difference was drastic. Now he was using it at the time to show why things would get good because he thought a big blocking winter was coming. But what I took away was the importance of the AO/nao this year. This wasn't a pattern we could make work without it. So by December 10 with a consolidating PV and AO going hard positive I already felt like "Houston we have a problem". Looking at past results when that's the December conditions tells the story of the likely AO outcome. So I used Jb's nugget to come to a different conclusion. So the models trying to flip the AO negative repeatedly was a big deal. Even now the difference between the good and bad runs is the nao. The gefs runs like 18z that really rank it get the trough in the east. The runs where the nao is there but muted or meh the trough is overrun by the pacific firehouse off the epo spike. So what's causing the bad modeling of the nao. Well add in another nugget I got off weatherbell. I will give them credit as a great source of useful information even if they use the information to make god awful forecasts. Also way back in December Joe d showed how cold or cold neutral winters with low solar and west qbo favor a positive AO and eastern ridge. Hmm seems that describes our base state. Thats one of the reasons I am sure jb isn't making legit forecasts but is trolling snow weenies for $$$. I'm not Sherlock Holmes, anyone with a decent level of knowledge in this could put those prices together and figure out we're in some trouble this year and jb had access to all 3 of those significant clues. I don't buy that he is too stupid to put them together. Now just because the overall base state is bad doesn't mean you will get a wall to wall awful winter. When I looked at analogs back in November the best marches seemed to have a consensus around a below average winter but not a total dud. I expected something like 50-70% of climo. 2000 loomed as a way we could even beat climo. Get a couple big hits during a brief window. Lucky. 1996 and 2014 even showed up in analogs but I tossed them because 1996 the qbo was barely west based and 2014 had an extremely anamolous north PAC warm pool that allowed the epo to take over the pattern all winter. The rest of the years mostly were in the 10-18" snowfall range across the metro areas with the exception of 2000. So I'll admit I busted on my expectations we would get some decent periods and eek out some snow. Maybe we still do but times running out. But what skewed things from bad to awful. I can't say for sure. But looking at the correlation between west qbo and positive AO and enso and the fact that this years west qbo is at unheard of levels I think it's very possible that's a big part of the problem. It's possible the models can't correctly weight what the influence of such an uncharted qbo event does to the pattern. They see other factors that argue the nao should tank and feel it's enough to overcome the qbo but in the end it's not. I'd be very interested in more on that kind of diagnostic in a winter postmortem analysis. ETA: sorry for the novel but thought I would share the twisted inner workings of the crap I waste time thinking about. I need help. Ready for my intervention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Been AWOL the last few days with the flu so its nice to come back and see things have not changed one bit. Well, except for maybe the increasing tones of anger and desperation. So let me hit this running. Roughly day 11-14 shows promise. Hope you feel better. Flu hit me hard back in December. Sucks. Welcome back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Stun gun first then bullet or straight to the bullet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Hope you feel better. Flu hit me hard back in December. Sucks. Welcome back. Thanks. Can't remember the last time I had been this sick. Still feel terrible but at least I can get around without passing out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And just when we have the towels in our hands.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Thanks. Can't remember the last time I had been this sick. Still feel terrible but at least I can get around without passing out now. It's a nasty one. I went to the urgent care on 94 up the road from Walmart in the Starbucks shopping center in Hanover for me and my son and they said 10 a day we're testing positive for it and the flu shot wasn't doing any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And just when we have the towels in our hands.... <snip> Mitch...you know full well that that we're going to get a raging -AO/-NAO/-EPO/+PNA combo come the end of March and into April that will lead to blustery 38-degree Nor'Easters with possibly a few paste jobs in the mountains. The sooner we accept it, the better off we'll all be when it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And just when we have the towels in our hands.... I told you this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And just when we have the towels in our hands.... Jokes aside the factors lining up now have me hanging on even if it's by a thread. Just like we often see things trend to crap when guidance shows a weenie solution long range in the face of unfavorable influences perhaps things go the other way this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 It's encouraging that the AO forecast at day 7 is negative given how well the forecast has done lately; explaining over 80% of the variance with little bias. ... at least we may have cold air to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 55 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And just when we have the towels in our hands.... The towel hit the mat weeks ago. The funeral already happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 58 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And just when we have the towels in our hands.... Mitch, how do these favorable indices coming up jive with the current state of the MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 The -ao looks to only displace much above normal continental air because of the deep trough off the west coast. Canada is going to get wrecked. I suppose it could help push the storm track south but I don't think it's going to make much difference unless things break differently than consensus. We'll have a couple fronts behind the rain storm so at least there will be chances for a fluke before anything really bad starts to happen. This year refuses to get things aligned right. If it's not one thing it's another. This will be the 3rd time that NA has been subject to a pac onslaught this season. The first 2 were well modeled and verified. Models could be wrong...it's a long ways out...blah blah...but for now that's the reality we're facing on guidance. The weeklies retro the pac trough far enough to cut off the jet and build a pna/epo ridge. I guess thats what we're looking for next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The -ao looks to only displace much above normal continental air because of the deep trough off the west coast. Canada is going to get wrecked. I suppose it could help push the storm track south but I don't think it's going to make much difference unless things break differently than consensus. We'll have a couple fronts behind the rain storm so at least there will be chances for a fluke before anything really bad starts to happen. This year refuses to get things aligned right. If it's not one thing it's another. This will be the 3rd time that NA has been subject to a pac onslaught this season. The first 2 were well modeled and verified. Models could be wrong...it's a long ways out...blah blah...but for now that's the reality we're facing on guidance. The weeklies retro the pac trough far enough to cut off the jet and build a pna/epo ridge. I guess thats what we're looking for next. HM tweets about pacific timing and the fact its off this year, Good comment on your part The next strat attack would occur mid month when Pac becomes better aligned, aided by MJO. But will things still be in phase on other side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The -ao looks to only displace much above normal continental air because of the deep trough off the west coast. Canada is going to get wrecked. I suppose it could help push the storm track south but I don't think it's going to make much difference unless things break differently than consensus. We'll have a couple fronts behind the rain storm so at least there will be chances for a fluke before anything really bad starts to happen. This year refuses to get things aligned right. If it's not one thing it's another. This will be the 3rd time that NA has been subject to a pac onslaught this season. The first 2 were well modeled and verified. Models could be wrong...it's a long ways out...blah blah...but for now that's the reality we're facing on guidance. The weeklies retro the pac trough far enough to cut off the jet and build a pna/epo ridge. I guess thats what we're looking for next. If the GFS and Euro are correct Day 7-14, that has to be the mildest pattern I've ever seen with a -AO that strongly negative in February. I've seen some torches in November and December with the AO negative but it becomes increasingly harder for that to occur in February and even March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I wonder how many posts will be in the "And we begin" thread next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If the GFS and Euro are correct Day 7-14, that has to be the mildest pattern I've ever seen with a -AO that strongly negative in February. I've seen some torches in November and December with the AO negative but it becomes increasingly harder for that to occur in February and even March Agreed. I can't really think of many other years either. Maybe 1991? There are some similarities. It's just one of those things. A bad combo. The AO can only displace what's right below it. And if what's below it is a giant stock pile of pac air it doesn't really do us any favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 What a Sh%t Show of GFS run this morning... I wasnt surprised though. Watch it be f-ing windy and 40 all March.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The -ao looks to only displace much above normal continental air because of the deep trough off the west coast. Canada is going to get wrecked. I suppose it could help push the storm track south but I don't think it's going to make much difference unless things break differently than consensus. We'll have a couple fronts behind the rain storm so at least there will be chances for a fluke before anything really bad starts to happen. This year refuses to get things aligned right. If it's not one thing it's another. This will be the 3rd time that NA has been subject to a pac onslaught this season. The first 2 were well modeled and verified. Models could be wrong...it's a long ways out...blah blah...but for now that's the reality we're facing on guidance. The weeklies retro the pac trough far enough to cut off the jet and build a pna/epo ridge. I guess thats what we're looking for next. Good post, that's pretty much my take on the guidance and pattern. The Pacific is going to flood the conus and Canada with warmer than normal air so even if we get a trough we'll be fighting normal type temps. Looks like through the middle of the month is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The -ao looks to only displace much above normal continental air because of the deep trough off the west coast. Canada is going to get wrecked. I suppose it could help push the storm track south but I don't think it's going to make much difference unless things break differently than consensus. We'll have a couple fronts behind the rain storm so at least there will be chances for a fluke before anything really bad starts to happen. This year refuses to get things aligned right. If it's not one thing it's another. This will be the 3rd time that NA has been subject to a pac onslaught this season. The first 2 were well modeled and verified. Models could be wrong...it's a long ways out...blah blah...but for now that's the reality we're facing on guidance. The weeklies retro the pac trough far enough to cut off the jet and build a pna/epo ridge. I guess thats what we're looking for next. 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agreed. I can't really think of many other years either. Maybe 1991? There are some similarities. It's just one of those things. A bad combo. The AO can only displace what's right below it. And if what's below it is a giant stock pile of pac air it doesn't really do us any favors. And it's for those reasons that we can expect no real change unless the PNA goes to where the ensembles show it AND the other indices hold. Not holding my breath., but I'll stick around to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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