Interstate Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: LP only made it to MS/AL then east then NE. This AM it was in the Gulf to GA and then due east from there. So I agree with you. Time to slow down the changes. Tomorrow it will be in Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I think we will be in real good shape by early-mid march.Define "good shape". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Tomorrow it will be in Chicago You could very well be right. If and that's a big if it hangs in there in the 0z runs, the EURO may start to come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think the second half of feb willl probably have some solid mid range threats that will vaporize. We aren't done with tracking failures. Jokes aside, I don't think Feb is going to be a disaster pattern wise. Gefs has been adamant that the western ridge will hang tough d10 and beyond. Makes sense. I'm not sold on the euro. We could get a temporary blast of pac air but I don't think we'll have a week in the upper 50's and low 60's either. It's been kinda comical how bad it's been this year getting even a piddly 1-2" event through the cities and burbs. But I don't think that means that's definitely what will happen over the next 4 weeks. We have equal chances at having something break right. We'll be in shock and awe if/when it does happen. A 200 page obs thread for a 2" storm wouldn't shock me lol The general look on the ensembles over multiple runs is not awful. It is pretty clear there is some disparity among the members lately- due to the MJO, or whatever. Seeing pretty big changes run to run particularly on the EPS. Here is what is in favor of DC-BWI area getting a decent event or 2 going forward- Pattern does not look particularly or persistently hostile, it is February, and it usually finds a way to snow this time of year. Law of averages- it has managed to snow all around the area, including parts of the SE, even though the pattern overall this winter in the MA and SNE has been pretty crappy for snow. On the downside, time is running short. If it doesn't snow in the next 10-15 days then its getting close to Hail Mary time. I thought about my lawn today for the first time in 3 nearly months. It looks slightly green the past few days. The days are getting longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Going beyond the mean is even worse. 15 out of 20 members have no storm close at all and only 4 give us appreciable snow. That is not the face card that PSU is looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The general look on the ensembles over multiple runs is not awful. It is pretty clear there is some disparity among the members lately- due to the MJO, or whatever. Seeing pretty big changes run to run particularly on the EPS. Here is what is in favor of DC-BWI area getting a decent event or 2 going forward- Pattern does not look particularly or persistently hostile, it is February, and it usually finds a way to snow this time of year. Law of averages- it has managed to snow all around the area, including parts of the SE, even though the pattern overall this winter in the MA and SNE has been pretty crappy for snow. On the downside, time is running short. If it doesn't snow in the next 10-15 days then its getting close to Hail Mary time. I thought about my lawn today for the first time in 3 nearly months. It looks slightly green the past few days. The days are getting longer... Add to that .... wait for it .... sun angle. It starts rising rapidly in the next few days and tops 40 degrees around the 19th. It gets increasingly tough to get that good wintry snow/feel after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Add to that .... wait for it .... sun angle. It starts rising rapidly in the next few days and tops 40 degrees around the 19th. It gets increasingly tough to get that good wintry snow/feel after that. True, but as we saw the 2 winters before last, it can be pretty damn wintery well into March despite sun angle increase. The St Pattys day storm we had, temps fell into the low 20s and teens with snow during the daylight hours, and it felt like mid January. Problem is, there is not even a hint that we are headed in that direction this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 hours ago, gsgpe56 said: JB saw his shadow...6 more weeks of hype... lol! Post of the day ! Excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Best gefs run long range in a while though. Normally I'd say the trough is a bit too east but with that war it actually might be better off there. Would need something to come from the south not the west. EPS has been bouncing all over. Hopefully it trends towards this look. This would fit the mjo phase 8 look so it makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: True, but as we saw the 2 winters before last, it can be pretty damn wintery well into March despite sun angle increase. The St Pattys day storm we had, temps fell into the low 20s and teens with snow during the daylight hours, and it felt like mid January. Problem is, there is not even a hint that we are headed in that direction this year. Yeah, we can do it, but it's tough. The March 17 2014 storm you mentioned started melting later that day and was gone a couple days later. The early march storm of the next year was good. Really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah, we can do it, but it's tough. The March 17 2014 storm you mentioned started melting later that day and was gone a couple days later. The early march storm of the next year was good. Really cold. If I recall after that storm which was on a weekend I was driving through battlefield and it was -2 on car thermometer. Lowest I think I ever saw. It's was early March I think maybe the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How long until this thing is in Pittsburgh? How many runs? It is nice to see a decent event and the time stamp have less than double digit days on it. Please don't say that. You'll jinx me. This needs to stay down in your neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I'm thinking of building my own ensemble consisting of the 168-hour GGEM, 186-hour 18z GFS, Punxsutawney Phil, and Farmer's Almanac. When's the last time that combination failed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Very big picture-- it's very very hard to make it through December, January, February, and March without a single moderate event for the metro area. It takes an extreme season like 72/73 or 97/98 for that to happen. And west of the Fall Line, it's even a bit harder (like how 3/76 'ruined' the streak for the western suburbs). And it's just not possible to know for sure until we get through all of March. So we can joke every season that betting on fail is a safe bet--- absolutely true. It's also true that through 4 cold-season months, it's very hard to bet against having one moderate snow. I will always bet that we get one. And taking that bet means I would have been wrong 4 seasons in the last 50 in MoCo west of the Fall Line-- only 72/73, 80/81, 97/98 (December 29-30/97 was very close where I am to a moderate snowstorm), and 11/12. Sure, this season will probably/could very well join those four. But, again, I'm never going to assume that solution even entering February without one moderate snow. Ready for the next 8 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah, we can do it, but it's tough. The March 17 2014 storm you mentioned started melting later that day and was gone a couple days later. The early march storm of the next year was good. Really cold. Yeah, it's tough...but it can happen in March if we're fortunate enough. There are four events/times since I've lived here that had some solid cold and snow in March. The early March 2009 event, with some 5-6"...early March 2014 (2nd/3rd, I believe?), I got 5.3"...March 16-17, 2014, 8" here...and March 5, 2015 where I got 6.5". For each of those events, it remained below freezing through the day (even if the roads were cleared quickly), and in the case of March 5, 2015, it was below freezing the following day as well. Then of course, there were two successive March 25 events in 2013 and 2014 (I got 4" and 3", respectively...during the daylight hours). It went above freezing, but stayed in the mid-30s each of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 hours ago, PennQuakerGirl said:I agree! If nothing else, this ballet-major has learned loads of new things about the weather, how the weather is predicted, and how people react to the weather being predicted. Now, in return, if anybody wants to learn classical ballet, you know where to find me. Mariinsky in town. They make American companies look slovenly. ABT doesn't come close. NYCB has the technique but it is niche Balanchine. Balletomane here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Trying to will a storm to happen by showing my Earth Science class this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah, we can do it, but it's tough. The March 17 2014 storm you mentioned started melting later that day and was gone a couple days later. The early march storm of the next year was good. Really cold. How bout we get some snow before we worry about it melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 So it seems we're really looking at a few factorsto see if we even have a shot. I know there are others as well- 1. Separation between the midweek "storm" and the follow up wave 2. Strength of the follow up wave. Past couple runs of the GFS have shown more energy; thus, stronger end result 3. Orientation of where the WC ridge sets up. Farther west Ridge, farther west storm. By the way, watching TWC for the first time in who knows how long. Good or bad omen for tonight's runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I think this is going to be another good OP run for us based off of 156 on the 00z GFS... decent H positioning and the first low is moving off and giving enough space for the second system to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 This run prob won't be as good as 18z or 12z from what I'm seeing so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I think this is going to be another good OP run for us based off of 156 on the 00z GFS... decent H positioning and the first low is moving off and giving enough space for the second system to develop Squashed a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: This run prob won't be as good as 18z or 12z from what I'm seeing so far. Agreed. Weaker follow up wave and the high is squashing the storm a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Should get worse from here on out and be completely gone by 12z/18z tomorrow. Anything after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 When the -10c line kept sinking further south, I figured it meant the storm would be a NC special (story of this winter so far). Long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I'm a little surprised the gfs still has the vort. Ridge is sharper behind so it dug more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I don't even know what I'm looking at with the CMC. If someone could explain that'd be much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I can extrapolate multiple snow storms beyond this panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I can extrapolate multiple snow storms beyond this panel Holy blocking batman. Let's get the ensembles to trend towards that. Oh just because I obviously have a serious problem I was looking at the runs 4/5 days ago that had potential for this coming week and the trough progression isn't all that different. The current follow up wave is the one that was the threat. The lakes cutter was originally just a weak northern stream system that came across mostly unnoticed. The trough dug in then something developed. Problem was when the Sunday thing fell apart it left room for the northern branch system to amplify and screwed the whole setup. Now it's complicated and we know how that works. Euro weeklies do look good week 4-6 but man that's getting late. I guess I can salvage a late save up here through march even but I'll be pretty checked out by then. But I guess if we're going to have that kind of stormy pattern might as well snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Gefs warming up to the trailing coastal idea in general. Close to half the suite has a version now. Some south and some here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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