pasnownut Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Its better than i expected, and dare say, were in a good spot at this juncture. GFS for the win. At 500 its not horrible, and that WAR might actually help to bring it up. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Its better than i expected, and dare say, were in a good spot at this juncture. GFS for the win. At 500 its not horrible, and that WAR might actually help to bring it up. Nut I thought the WAR sets up where we need a 50/50 to help lock in the cold. Wouldn't the WAR bring the warm air North instead? Im just trying to learn. I would think if this were to come N due to the WAR it would be like walking the tightrope to try and get snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Well we need it to disappear completely for a run or 2 5 days out.. Then come back.. we also do not want a huge drastic north trend. We also want 50 other things to go just right... Skeptical here! f it moves north as much as it did on the last 3 runs it will be west and north of us soon. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 I'm tellin' ya, somebody keeps hacking into the LR models (and what is about the Happy hour GFS, that better hits (phantoms or not) are more likely to show up?) Anybody care to investigate the conspiracy? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: I'll get the wine out. Gonna be a long night. Seriously though, it's nice to see blue over the area even if it's far off. I'm gonna need your address. I'll check my pm's regularly How long until this thing is in Pittsburgh? How many runs? It is nice to see a decent event and the time stamp have less than double digit days on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I thought the WAR sets up where we need a 50/50 to help lock in the cold. Wouldn't the WAR bring the warm air North instead? Im just trying to learn. I would think if this were to come N due to the WAR it would be like walking the tightrope to try and get snow? Everything is predicated on the departing low. It's a transient sorta 50/50 blocking the flow and creating confluence at the right time. Speed up the departing low and it comes north and vice versa. If the trailing wave is slower it goes west. Too close and it gets shredded. Or it doesn't exist at all like the euro. There is zero chance the GFS hold this solution run in run out. It very well could happen but we won't know a damn thing for like 5 days. My money is on a no go but only because of the lead time. Way too much happens first so it's just a dart toss for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hr 180-186 look like a blizzard to me. And the line starts forming... This winter has absolutely sucked. But at least you guys make it fun. It would be totally unbearable without you guys to talk, commiserate, and fool around with. Imagine just silently looking at the crap we've had all winter run after run. You all make it better. Thanks. Now back to drooling over some fantasy we know will be gone in 6 hours. Oh and I'm sure several weather weenies have already petitioned to have the definition of blizzard changed to "some accumulating snow across central and southern VA". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Everything is predicated on the departing low. It's a transient sorta 50/50 blocking the flow and creating confluence at the right time. Speed up the departing low and it comes north and vice versa. If the trailing wave is slower it goes west. Too close and it gets shredded. Or it doesn't exist at all like the euro. There is zero chance the GFS hold this solution run in run out. It very well could happen but we won't know a damn thing for like 5 days. My money is on a no go but only because of the lead time. Way too much happens first so it's just a dart toss for now. yeah my comment about the WAR is basically taking the model at face value....which is a fools errand, but as depicted, the pattern would support a turn up more then out. No worries....something totally different to chew on in 4.5 hrs. better than chewing on nuttin. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gsgpe56 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 JB saw his shadow...6 more weeks of hype... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: I agree! If nothing else, this ballet-major has learned loads of new things about the weather, how the weather is predicted, and how people react to the weather being predicted. Now, in return, if anybody wants to learn classical ballet, you know where to find me. And if you ever find yourself in the Baltimore/Central MD area and need a pianist to accompany said ballet...look no further! Lol This pianist is certainly learning a lot on here as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Well we need it to disappear completely for a run or 2 5 days out.. Then come back.. we also do not want a huge drastic north trend. We also want 50 other things to go just right... Skeptical here! f it moves north as much as it did on the last 3 runs it will be west and north of us soon. LOL. LP only made it to MS/AL then east then NE. This AM it was in the Gulf to GA and then due east from there. So I agree with you. Time to slow down the changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: LP only made it to MS/AL then east then NE. This AM it was in the Gulf to GA and then due east from there. So I agree with you. Time to slow down the changes. Don't get too far ahead. Majority of the ensembles don't support any low pressure at all. Op runs are the wrong tool beyond 5 days. Especially with delicate stuff like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Very little GEFS support. About 5 members have a similar storm but not even enough to show a signal on the MSLP panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very little GEFS support. About 5 members have a similar storm but not even enough to show a signal on the MSLP panel. Was about to say this. Mean through that period is only 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very little GEFS support. About 5 members have a similar storm but not even enough to show a signal on the MSLP panel. To be fair, that powerhouse 1012 low over Miss/Ala barely shows on the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Was about to say this. Mean through that period is only 1.5" Going beyond the mean is even worse. 15 out of 20 members have no storm close at all and only 4 give us appreciable snow. That is not the face card that PSU is looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Weeklies are pretty atrocious week 3 but actually get ok week 4 and beyond. PNA/EPO ridge combo sets up with lower heights across the southern US coast to coast. Would imply a southern storm track with some blocking of sorts. lol. 2 weeks of winter hail mary style before climo takes over. It will probably be an echo chamber in here by then though. Me and PSU will be basically PM'ing each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Started the week with all kinds of optimism. Ended the week in despair. Winter 2016-2017 is a sharp stick in the eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies are pretty atrocious week 3 but actually get ok week 4 and beyond. PNA/EPO ridge combo sets up with lower heights across the southern US coast to coast. Would imply a southern storm track with some blocking of sorts. lol. 2 weeks of winter hail mary style before climo takes over. It will probably be an echo chamber in here by then though. Me and PSU will be basically PM'ing each other. Weenie suicide watch.. this has been the story all winter though... the future Looks good until the future is the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies are pretty atrocious week 3 but actually get ok week 4 and beyond. PNA/EPO ridge combo sets up with lower heights across the southern US coast to coast. Would imply a southern storm track with some blocking of sorts. lol. 2 weeks of winter hail mary style before climo takes over. It will probably be an echo chamber in here by then though. Me and PSU will be basically PM'ing each other. With all of us watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Well, at least we have something to look forward to on the 00z runs. I got a feeling on this one though....I think the more west the first low cuts, the better chance the 2nd one (if it even ends up existing) has a chance to amplify. Also need as much separation as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I suspect that if the latest AO/NAO/PNA/MJO forecasts hold we will see models become a lot more friendly looking over the next few days. But will they hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 The NAVGEM seems to like the day 8 threat...that's right I said it. Even a broke clock is right twice a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Bristol, got a link or pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Bristol, got a link or pic? I read it in the SE forum at a red light. Driving home right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I suspect that if the latest AO/NAO/PNA/MJO forecasts hold we will see models become a lot more friendly looking over the next few days. But will they hold? I think we will be in real good shape by early-mid march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think we will be in real good shape by early-mid march. You may be jumping the gun. I'd be comfortable if you said early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 I'm really liking the under for DCA rest of February. No single event > 1". 50% chance of Trace or less total. Due for a down winter, and here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think we will be in real good shape by early-mid march. I think the second half of feb willl probably have some solid mid range threats that will vaporize. We aren't done with tracking failures. Jokes aside, I don't think Feb is going to be a disaster pattern wise. Gefs has been adamant that the western ridge will hang tough d10 and beyond. Makes sense. I'm not sold on the euro. We could get a temporary blast of pac air but I don't think we'll have a week in the upper 50's and low 60's either. It's been kinda comical how bad it's been this year getting even a piddly 1-2" event through the cities and burbs. But I don't think that means that's definitely what will happen over the next 4 weeks. We have equal chances at having something break right. We'll be in shock and awe if/when it does happen. A 200 page obs thread for a 2" storm wouldn't shock me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.