pasnownut Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Oh if that was the case, I'd kiss every single member of this board then and there. Can we hold you to it??? lol. The things we do for snow!! nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: I think you just made this the most important gfs run in history. Not sure ncep can handle the pressure. X2 been a while since the board crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Bob wasn't exaggerating.. the EPS is a sh*t show. The mean snowfall is 1-1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS is a total and complete fail in every way. There is absolutely nothing good to say about it. After it made progress last night it just went completely to a crap no chance pattern straight through to day 15. I don't think it looks horrific days 11-15. I have seen worse. Zoom out. Looking for detail in the means has not worked out anyway. There is a mean ridge out west and trough in the east. Decent amount of spread among the members wrt temperature anomaly. I have stepped back for the past few days mostly because I am teaching a class and dont have the time. Its a good thing. Refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think you just made this the most important gfs run in history. Not sure ncep can handle the pressure. She's already knows she's 100% safe from us weather weirdos. This aint no jan 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Bob wasn't exaggerating.. the EPS is a sh*t show. The mean snowfall is 1-1.5" The less we talk about it the better. It was a horror show. Just have to hope it was a bad run. Moving on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: The less we talk about it the better. It was a horror show. Just have to hope it was a bad run. Moving on. It can get a good bit worse. It still had 1.5" to shed over the next couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I don't think it looks horrific days 11-15. I have seen worse. Zoom out. Looking for detail in the means has not worked out anyway. There is a mean ridge out west and trough in the east. Decent amount of spread among the members wrt temperature anomaly. I have stepped back for the past few days mostly because I am teaching a class and dont have the time. Its a good thing. Refreshing. Some members get cold behind a cutter. There is no snow near us. No signal for a threat. I thought it was pretty awful. It's flooding conus with PAC air and not nearly enough trough to offset that. I'd rather just tell myself it's a hiccup and toss it. Gefs was a decent look. Ride that. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: She's already knows she's 100% safe from us weather weirdos. This aint no jan 2016. 50 bucks says someone hacks into this gfs run so it shows a snowstorm on d8-d9. Next run will show nothing. On a side note, it's a shame the d4-5 storm cuts. Congrats MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It can get a good bit worse. It still had 1.5" to shed over the next couple runs. Oh they will. Did you see where that 1.5 mean comes from? Basically 6 fluke members with a 4-8" hit. The rest show absolutely nothing. If the EPS is correct those flukes will disappear soon and we will be back to rock bottom. I'm telling myself the EPS just had a crap run and that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh they will. Did you see where that 1.5 mean comes from? Basically 6 fluke members with a 4-8" hit. The rest show absolutely nothing. If the EPS is correct those flukes will disappear soon and we will be back to rock bottom. I'm telling myself the EPS just had a crap run and that's all. I'm wondering if a run not only shows a 15 day mean 0" but also shows the top 1.5" of topsoil scraped from our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Bob wasn't exaggerating.. the EPS is a sh*t show. The mean snowfall is 1-1.5" Looking at mean snowfall has been utterly useless. We know its not snowing in the next 10 days. How many times has it looked "good" days 10-15 and yielded zero snow? Mean snowfall is really only useful when there is at least decent consensus among the members on a specific threat, usually at 7 days and in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some members get cold behind a cutter. There is no snow near us. No signal for a threat. I thought it was pretty awful. It's flooding conus with PAC air and not nearly enough trough to offset that. I'd rather just tell myself it's a hiccup and toss it. Gefs was a decent look. Ride that. Lol It will change. Thats the good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm wondering if a run not only shows a 15 day mean 0" but also shows the top 1.5" of topsoil scraped from our yards. Preview of the 0z snow mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Gfs trying for the hat trick again. It's a mirage folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Hr 180-186 look like a blizzard to me. And the line starts forming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Yeah it's coming for us. How long y'all think the gfs will troll is whole the euro shows nothing? I give it till 12z tomm when some folks will get good and vested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Heh... looks good. The GFS has been trending stronger with the trailing energy for the last few runs. Something to keep an eye on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 999MB in Colorado weakens to 1013mb in AL/MS, then starts deepening again over GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Hr 180-186 look like a blizzard to me. And the line starts forming... I'm in front. This is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Twitter/Facebook about to erupt with "Not a forecast, just model output" posts.. JB will have a weenie post.. also some FITF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hr 180-186 look like a blizzard to me. And the line starts forming... Its enough to bring out the weenie in all of us.... Thats a joke.....ok. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 North trend forthcoming. This is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: North trend forthcoming. This is a lock. We are going to need higher heights off the E coast if this is going to effect western suburbs. Otherwise it's a frontal wave that skims I95 and east like the early January storm. Or nothing like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Odds the GEFS has no support for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Close to closing off at h5 in SW VA...lol. Thought the surface low would have been further north with that look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Trend is your friend Did any of the EPS members show a solution like this at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Keep in mind, the Super Bowl threat started out very similar and we see where we are with that. When we are within 5 days (preferably 3 this season) we may actually stand a chance. Nice eye candy anyway for now. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Odds the GEFS has no support for that? The mean won't, several members will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Odds the GEFS has no support for that? I predict the 10 day snowfall mean for DC will be 5". Or 0.5. Something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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