psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: That said, Im guessing it still doesnt show anything Euro has no hint of anything. Bombs out the first system and squashes everything else completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 So which model has sucked the least this year 8 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: There's a HP where the LP is on the GFS... and yes. Nothing. I know, Im just saying that the Canadians timing on its low was 12-24 hours earlier than the GFS....The euro and CMC are similar-ish at 192. Its moot because it doesnt have it anyway, but hard to tell a ton from 24 hr maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 By Day 9, it's "wash, rinse, repeat" with all the cold air scoured out of the country just like Day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 It's a repeating pattern with no signs whatsoever at Day 10 of any change or help from the MJO. In fact, day 10, the ridge is heading back over Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's a repeating pattern with no signs whatsoever at Day 10 of any change or help from the MJO. In fact, day 10, the ridge is heading back over Japan. EPS starts to improve around day 13. Were screwed before then unless we get perfect timing with the trailing wave day 7. Doubt it. If, big if, the mjo does kick in long range the way it would happen wouldn't be by progressing a trough into the east it would be through discontinuous retrogression. More then likely the ridging would slowly pull back and center itself further northwest up top. Then systems would start to cut under and a trough would develop in the east. Kind of just sneak up on us by developing over us not progressing in. That's not going to be a cold pattern. Average temps. We're cut off from true cold thanks to the epo. But get something amped up with a perfect track it could work. Way out epo trends neutral but by then we're talking late feb so cold isn't that cold anymore. Forget any truly cold patterns. No way. Ain't happening. Our last hope lies with getting enough trough in the east to hope a system tracks under us and there is just enough cold to salvage something from this dumpster fire winter. Gefs shows a workable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS starts to improve around day 13. Were screwed before then unless we get perfect timing with the trailing wave day 7. Doubt it. If, big if, the mjo does kick in long range the way it would happen wouldn't be by progressing a trough into the east it would be through discontinuous retrogression. More then likely the ridging would slowly pull back and center itself further northwest up top. Then systems would start to cut under and a trough would develop in the east. Kind of just sneak up on us by developing over us not progressing in. That's not going to be a cold pattern. Average temps. We're cut off from true cold thanks to the epo. But get something amped up with a perfect track it could work. Way out epo trends neutral but by then we're talking late feb so cold isn't that cold anymore. Forget any truly cold patterns. No way. Ain't happening. Our last hope lies with getting enough trough in the east to hope a system tracks under us and there is just enough cold to salvage something from this dumpster fire winter. Gefs shows a workable pattern. I honestly think I've seen a similar, if not almost the same, pattern advertised on the GEFS this year without luck. I know you're only responding to my post, but we are really getting near the end of what we can consider a reasonable period for snow and we're still relying on 13 day GEFS maps that put us to 2/15. I think it's fair to say we're done short of a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 38 minutes ago, high risk said: certainly possible, even with the 12z GFS solution. A super deep sfc low passing by to our northwest at this time of year can produce convection even if the cold front comes through at the wrong time of day. And if the timing changes, maybe we can have a 2/24/16 repeat.... Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Euro was very encouraging If you're rooting for a futility record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Longer term pattern looks better and better, delayed but not denied? Near end of run, it looks rather similar to late Feb 93. Shorter term, I am thinking 50-50 chances on day 8-9 time frame. Not buying Euro bombing GL low scenario and GFS looks more realistic. Whatever happens there, think there will be one great storm beyond day 16 and quite possibly into March. Good snow cover developing in Midwest will help your chances, open Lakes will maintain lake effect increasing snowfall to your north. These factors should eventually pay off with strong cold high in right place at right time. Really good time frame may be March 10-15 for the winter's best storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro was very encouraging If you're rooting for a futility record. honestly, maybe signs that I'm too old for this, but I am finding it funny how futile it has become this year still say next year rocks as for your post Roger, I, like the rest of us, can only hope you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Euro ens laugh at anyone thinking the trailing wave idea may actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 I'm honestly not that far away from throwing in the towel. I'll probably keep following pretty closely for the next 7-10 days. Once we approach mid February, If I'm not seeing a legit pattern in the 10-15 day range, I'll definitely mail in it and just check in once in awhile. At least we already feel like there is hope of a big winter next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 I honestly think I've seen a similar, if not almost the same, pattern advertised on the GEFS this year without luck. I know you're only responding to my post, but we are really getting near the end of what we can consider a reasonable period for snow and we're still relying on 13 day GEFS maps that put us to 2/15. I think it's fair to say we're done short of a fluke.Couldn't have said it better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: I honestly think I've seen a similar, if not almost the same, pattern advertised on the GEFS this year without luck. I know you're only responding to my post, but we are really getting near the end of what we can consider a reasonable period for snow and we're still relying on 13 day GEFS maps that put us to 2/15. I think it's fair to say we're done short of a fluke. Please don't think I'm dismissing your points because they are by and large valid. But let me offer two retorts. 1. We have had better and worse looks repeatedly but not quite that look with the banana blocking look and pna ridge and mjo supportive of the look. Most of the time the lower heights were centered to our north. Maybe it shifts that way but as of now this is slightly different. Also missed in all this is the fact that the ridge bridge up top we were excited about 10-15 days ago did verify. It just didn't do any good. Absolutely nothing came across. The stj went totally dead. We are in the middle of a 7 day window and we're going to be dry. Then after the pattern breaks we revert to a wave train. Lol. But that little FU from Mother Nature doesn't mean the models were wrong. They nailed the h5 pattern. They may teased us for a couple days that the pattern might reload and continue long term but then the mjo spiked and killed that idea. That was a bust. 2. Even after point one I still concede your general points are true. So what if the models hit on pattern generalities it hasn't snowed. I agree. But I can only analyze what we see. I can analyze the mjo and guidance output and discuss what it might mean. I don't know how to quantify the "this just sucks" points. It's the long range thread so I'm just looking at the long range and the objective guidance about it. I can't say it's right or not but all I can do is use what's available. I could speculate absolutely anything but without any evidence it would be a bad conversation. So I agree in principle but unless we want this thread to become a bunch of "this sucks" posts not sure what else I should do other then continue to discuss what the long range looks like from our best current guess based on the data. Just to support point 1 these are the actual initializations from 72 and 48 hours ago. We saw that from 15 days out and got excited. There was no way to know it wouldn't end up doing us any good. We wasted a pretty good pattern. That's not a model failure it's bad luck (or seasonal persistence) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 i would of cancelled winter a long time ago but PSU kept sucking me in. Plus 34 other people have already cancelled it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ens laugh at anyone thinking the trailing wave idea may actually happen. I'm more interested in if they start to build on the modest signal they had day 10-15 last night. I think we're toast due to the mjo spike into phase 4-7 until then. The trailing wave requires so many moving parts it's not worth wasting anything on or rooting for unless it just pops up last second. Anyone doing that is setting themselves up for a big hurt otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm more interested in if they start to build on the modest signal they had day 10-15 last night. I think we're toast due to the mjo spike into phase 4-7 until then. The trailing wave requires so many moving parts it's not worth wasting anything on or rooting for unless it just pops up last second. Anyone doing that is setting themselves up for a big hurt otherwise. I am all in for that trailing wave. We are due and things will trend our way for once. 8-12 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ji said: I am all in for that trailing wave. We are due and things will trend our way for once. 8-12 inches I was thinking 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 EPS is a total and complete fail in every way. There is absolutely nothing good to say about it. After it made progress last night it just went completely to a crap no chance pattern straight through to day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: EPS is a total and complete fail in every way. There is absolutely nothing good to say about it. After it made progress last night it just went completely to a crap no chance pattern straight through to day 15. no need to sugar coat it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: no need to sugar coat it lol The gefs and EPS have been flipping around. For days the gefs was looking ok and EPS awful. Then last night they flipped and gefs was bad and EPS better. Now they flipped back. Not sure what to make of that. Obviously their both struggling. But this run was awful. Worst since the January torch was setting in. Just crap the whole run. No threats even remotely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Consider what the posts of about 5-7 days ago looked like. That's all that needs to be said (if one is actually thinking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 It's ok in an hour the gfs is going to show a blizzard and everyone will feel good for 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs and EPS have been flipping around. For days the gefs was looking ok and EPS awful. Then last night they flipped and gefs was bad and EPS better. Now they flipped back. Not sure what to make of that. Obviously their both struggling. But this run was awful. Worst since the January torch was setting in. Just crap the whole run. No threats even remotely. The MJO lost its mojo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's ok in an hour the gfs is going to show a blizzard and everyone will feel good for 6 hours. Haven't had a 10+ imaginary storm in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Euro was very encouraging If you're rooting for a futility record. Not cool, bro...not cool, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not cool, bro...not cool, lol We already lost that opportunity from a couple of cheesy 1" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The MJO lost its mojo Actually the euro mjo goes ape into 8. Something's off. Of course the last wave did nothing for us in phase 1 so the mjo can be offset. But that's a pretty high amplitude mjo wave to be saying it has no effect. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Oh if that was the case, I'd kiss every single member of this board then and there. I think you just made this the most important gfs run in history. Not sure ncep can handle the pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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