Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: some cutters in there for sure Not after the big rain storm moves through by d7. It's either a follow up wave of snow or cool/dry. Majority favor cool/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, das said: The +8 anomaly maps I've seen look almost exactly the same... +8 K?!?! For the third week of Feb, given our climo, that would translate to like mid 60s for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: +8 K?!?! For the third week of Feb, given our climo, that would translate to like mid 60s for highs. MJO just texted me and said it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 We are gluttons for punishment! We know models have been horrible past 3 days.. but we are always hopeful! LOL! Sick hobby! Snow-starved ravenous weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: MJO just texted me and said it's wrong. With all of the conflicting signals in the long range - I have 0% confidence in any pattern being shown beyond day 7. Second half of February is still a coin flip IMHO. Now if the MJO fails, the AO fails, the NAO fails, PNA fails then we can start talking about a warm second half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, kurtstack said: With all of the conflicting signals in the long range - I have 0% confidence in any pattern being shown beyond day 7. Second half of February is still a coin flip IMHO. Now if the MJO fails, the AO fails, the NAO fails, PNA fails then we can start talking about a warm second half of the month. Heads it's warm, tails it's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: This is one year, for sure, that assuming "north trend" isn't a great assumption, that's for sure. I would like to see some models paint actual snow over the Balt area for a change too... There is a northern trend... it has been ending up in Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not after the big rain storm moves through by d7. It's either a follow up wave of snow or cool/dry. Majority favor cool/dry. I saw the snows out to our west. Must be lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: As far as I know, there has only been one storm that happened south of us. Other storms, and I'm not counting that weak little clipper that buzzed through here a couple of days ago, have all trended north on models. Or west, however you want to look at it. That was the key thing with the early Jan miss to the south. It was too far east, not too far south. The look of the gfs, IMO, almost guarantees that, if that storm even exists, that it won't have any problem trending north. That confluence, suppression, etc. in the ne has been over modeled almost every time. And this time, the ridge axis out west is over Wash/Cal, not Montana/NM. Yea that one storm that hit south of us seems to be over exaggerated as a "trend" this year. Maybe because it was the only freaking significant snow event anywhere in the general vicinity all winter. Now if we get 2 more storms that go just southeast of us this winter then yea I will admit it was a seasonal trend but so far we have had one storm of any significance go south, and nothing else even remotely in the area. Yea a few light piddly type events went north and a clipper went south but come on those are barely worth considering as they were they general insignificant things you will get once in a while even in the worse winters. The real problem is while the long range has teased us with patterns that COULD hold potential we have really only carried one threat of significance into the medium range (inside 120 hours) and yea it went south of us. But the problem isnt that it missed but that we only had one realistic legit threat of a significant snow all winter. Even in our best winters we dont hit 100 percent. 2013/14 there were misses. We had a higher then normal hit rate for sure but we still needed a few threats to actually get a snow. So if we get through the winter with only a few legit chances at a storm and we dont get one the problem isnt some seasonal memory to hit one location or another it was the overall pattern not giving us enough chances IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Thanks for the gefs updates guys. Now do the euro when it finishes. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Another thing off about this year compared to more typical east coast winters is that there have been no patterns that have produced "bunches" of storms in the same general area. That's a testament to how bad it's been everywhere. 2015 was a stark example with Jan/early feb in SNE and the mid Feb/mid Mar here. There have been times where the SE gets a cluster of storms and then the bullseye moves. Even our mediocre winters here normally have a couple 2 week periods where it snows more than once. This year has just been flat out crappy everywhere in the east. Wisp has like 40" of snow for the year and 12" of that fell recently. The ski resorts in SNE started off hot but then faded. SNE hasn't even had a "cycle of storms" this year. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: MJO just texted me and said it's wrong. It's a throwdown of suck. The MJO forecast beyond day 10, which has been horrible vs. the CFS, which has been horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 GFS has changed by 100 to 200 miles in 6 hours. Straight east from Georgia at 6z. Now turning up the coast with snow in Virginia at 12z. Maybe it will end up in Chicago before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, das said: It's a throwdown of suck. The MJO forecast beyond day 10, which has been horrible vs. the CFS, which has been horrible. That means I have to use less heating oil... so that is a plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: GFS has changed by 100 to 200 miles in 6 hours. Straight east from Georgia at 6z. Now turning up the coast with snow in Virginia at 12z. That is to be expected for something that is 7-8 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: GFS has changed by 100 to 200 miles in 6 hours. Straight east from Georgia at 6z. Now turning up the coast with snow in Virginia at 12z. Maybe it will end up in Chicago before all is said and done. This is my biggest worry. I've bitten too early too many times this year. I'll be waiting for this to come within 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 mjo keeps trending stronger into 8. One thing odd is that is a model forecast. The same model that also has a not so cold look. So it's factoring that in and saying hmm yea I see that but I think these other factors will override it and make it warmer. To be fair both the EPS and gefs have a muted Easterm trough and the temp pattern looks like phase 8 but biased or skewed warm. So the problem is can the mjo overcome what's obviously some base state problems with other pattern drivers. It sure looks strong but it better be. Still waiting to see some sign of help from the strat. Gefs look was better 12z. Maybe given those factors things trend better instead of worse this time. Said I was playing one more hand this winter so this is it if I don't get some face cards soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: This is my biggest worry. I've bitten to early too many times this year. I'll be waiting for this to come within 5 days. Is this one not closer in time than any other this year? But I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: mjo keeps trending stronger into 8. One thing odd is that is a model forecast. The same model that also has a not so cold look. So it's factoring that in and saying hmm yea I see that but I think these other factors will override it and make it warmer. To be fair both the EPS and gefs have a muted Easterm trough and the temp pattern looks like phase 8 but biased or skewed warm. So the problem is can the mjo overcome what's obviously some base state problems with other pattern drivers. It sure looks strong but it better be. Still waiting to see some sign of help from the strat. Gefs look was better 12z. Maybe given those factors things trend better instead of worse this time. Said I was playing one more hand this winter so this is it if I don't get some face cards soon. RNA pattern keeps pushing Pac air across the country and it's killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Euro looks totally different to GFS... Like... different planets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: Euro looks totally different to GFS... Like... different planets. They look the same to me....neither one gives us snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 In the place of the GFS/CMC wave that slips to our south, the euro has what appears to be a cloud. Couldnt tell you what kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Maybe some storms from the 12z EURO midweek system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, paulythegun said: In the place of the GFS/CMC wave that slips to our south, the euro has what appears to be a cloud. Couldnt tell you what kind. prolly' the same dark cloud that's been over us all "winter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 The 24 hr maps on the EURO dont help....need someone with pay site. For instance the EURO is identical to the CMC at 192 hours but cmc showed snow at 168-174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Maybe some storms from the 12z EURO system? certainly possible, even with the 12z GFS solution. A super deep sfc low passing by to our northwest at this time of year can produce convection even if the cold front comes through at the wrong time of day. And if the timing changes, maybe we can have a 2/24/16 repeat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 That said, Im guessing it still doesnt show anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: The 24 hr maps on the EURO dont help....need someone with pay site. For instance the EURO is identical to the CMC at 192 hours but cmc showed snow at 168-174 There's a HP where the LP is on the GFS... and yes. Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Euro is way more progressive and further south with the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, high risk said: certainly possible, even with the 12z GFS solution. A super deep sfc low passing by to our northwest at this time of year can produce convection even if the cold front comes through at the wrong time of day. And if the timing changes, maybe we can have a 2/24/16 repeat.... Could be breezy if it mixes down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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