Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 The storm is obviously an NC weenie dream on the run but we can totally work with this general look. I'm not mad at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, kurtstack said: 12Z GFS looks alright at 162 with a low in Texas a High to the north, cold air in place in the east and confluence. At least something to keep in eye on the next few days for trends. Yeah it looks really close to getting us something very nice. Just need a little sharper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: The storm is obviously an NC weenie dream on the run but we can totally work with this general look. I'm not mad at it. Don't do it Bob. Don't. You already know how it's going to turn out. I bit last time against my better judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Don't do it Bob. Don't. You already know how it's going to turn out. I bit last time against my better judgement. Heh, I'm not biting on a damn op cartoon beyond 4-5 days. I've long passed that stage this year. This is a viable solution within the spread though. The gefs/eps members that get it done for us look really similar to this type of progression. The real fun starts when the euro does something similar in an hour. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 GFS is better... still some work to be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Pump that ridge out West a little more and maybe, just maybe. Holding onto some hope still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah it looks really close to getting us something very nice. Just need a little sharper trough. Or just a weaker/faster moving departing low to the NE. GFS is down in the 970's in the maritimes. One trend that has happened most of the year is weaker or less confluence all season through the mid range. The post weekend storm has been trending warmer the last 4 runs. That's why I was pretty skeptical of the front end love the gfs was showing just yesterday. That's fading quick but no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 IF the storm occurs, it will stay south just like all the rest. It's this year's slot. At least, imho, odds favor it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, I'm not biting on a damn op cartoon beyond 4-5 days. I've long passed that stage this year. This is a viable solution within the spread though. The gefs/eps members that get it done for us look really similar to this type of progression. The real fun starts when the euro does something similar in an hour. lol I hear you, but I am almost willing to bet my life that the Euro will maintain it's stellar status as party pooper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 So if the Euro has any semblance of the GFS, do we all promise to hang in there? I'm hoping beyond hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: IF the storm occurs, it will stay south just like all the rest. It's this year's slot. At least, imho, odds favor it. Still 8 days out, so plenty of time for adjustment. This run still looks smothered though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 CMC does it with closer spacing with the follow up. Not a big hit but close enough. 2 for 2 @ 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 The MJO does still look healthy into phase 8 in the long range. Yea it could be wrong but lets assume for the sake of this argument its correct. The strat warm could also help, but who knows but lets assume it does weaken the PV and that is why all guidance is showing ridging up top in the long range. So we are assuming we get those 3 factors. I do believe there is some truth to that. But the problem is I am not sure it will be enough to help. There have been runs, way too many, where even with good blocking there just isnt enough cold for it to matter. This year warm has been the bully. Even when there is a trough in the east its been lame most of the time. We had 2 short cold blasts and the rest of the time warm has been dominant. There are also signs the trough in the Pacific is going to be too close to the west coast and blast pacific air across. The EPO spike is going to fight those other signals and we have enough problems already. Yea the trough is in the east but the axis looks too far east so systems dive in above us and amplify off the coast. Yay. Thats the bad The good... the PNA looks to go positive, the AO looks to go negative, the MJO is headed towards phase 8. The strat is beating on the PV. All of that argues for blocking and in Feb into early March good things can happen with blocking. I would bet we finish above average on temperatures but who cares at this point, the real question is can we sneak a snow or two in. The pattern is ambiguous not necessarily hostile in the long range. The trough is over the east. There is blocking. Yea we can nitpick and this or that is not great but from that range if the major players are correct and some of those details end up wrong but the error is in our favor it could easily lead to snow. That is indicative within the ensembles as there are still many snowy members, way more then we would see in a truly hostile pattern. Don't misunderstand that as a signal for snow. The majority are not snowy. But enough are to say that there is a chance of snow within the pattern if we get some luck. The signal for snow is actually slightly above what the normal base state signal seems to be over the years for any 2 week pattern on average. That is probably because if you put a trough into the east something can just pop easily this time of year. So while nothing looks great the look isnt hopeless as it has been much of the winter and perhaps with some minor adjustments could end up better. One last thing to look out for, the EPS towards the end of the run starts to crash the pacific trough into the west coast. If that happens pack it up and head home its over. That would absolutely flood the east with warmth and we would be looking at a long reload process and probably be well into March before we recover. Game over in that case. But the EPS has been absolutely useless past day 10 for a while now jumping around on major features every run so I am not that worried about it YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: IF the storm occurs, it will stay south just like all the rest. It's this year's slot. At least, imho, odds favor it. This is one year, for sure, that assuming "north trend" isn't a great assumption, that's for sure. I would like to see some models paint actual snow over the Balt area for a change too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 One last thought on the MJO. The MJO is a major influence, but its only an influence not THE influence. It has a correlation because it will skew the pattern warm or cold but it has to fight other factors. That is why the last MJO wave didnt really do us much good. It blunted the torch that we thought was coming when in the end it was just warm not really crazy warm. It caused a storm to take a perfect track for a big snow but there was no cold around. The MJO cant just totally shift the pattern 100 percent. It skewed that pattern cooler but the other factors were so awful it only muted what was a torch period. That could happen again. If we get a favorable MJO but other factors are pushing warmth all it may do is make the pattern marginally better but not good enough. The MJO isnt a magic pill. Still were in our snowiest month and so there is hope that a favorable MJO could be the extra shove we need, but I am not assuming it solves all our problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: This is one year, for sure, that assuming "north trend" isn't a great assumption, that's for sure. I would like to see some models paint actual snow over the Balt area for a change too... SNE disagrees with you. lol. Just kidding. It's all in perspective though. The southern miss actually did trend a good bit north even in the short term. Initially it was going to bury Myrtle beach and even give Atlanta a big snow. That was in the medium range too and not long range. Now I don't think what the GFS just did should be drooled all over because it's just a single run. But if it becomes more real in the medium range (wherever consensus has it at that time) I fully expect a north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC does it with closer spacing with the follow up. Not a big hit but close enough. 2 for 2 @ 12z. Been a really rough morning. Busy and just bad stuff to deal with in the "real world" so a little behind, been seeing some stuff as it comes in but most of my comments are based on the ensembles from overnight but honestly I don't want to be overly influenced by a couple op runs at range. The snowier solutions have been hiding within the ensemble members for a while so it was only a matter of time before one showed up on the ops, the real questions is do the number of hits increase within the ensembles and among the range of ops and then we can say the signal is increasing. We will know soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: SNE disagrees with you. lol. Just kidding. It's all in perspective though. The southern miss actually did trend a good bit north even in the short term. Initially it was going to bury Myrtle beach and even give Atlanta a big snow. That was in the medium range too and not long range. Now I don't think what the GFS just did should be drooled all over because it's just a single run. But if it becomes more real in the medium range (wherever consensus has it at that time) I fully expect a north trend. Maybe, but this isn't a normal year. But from where it is starting, and how far it needs to trend north is always a thing. Just saying, reciting "north trend" didn't get it done last time around, and in a year where most of Balt is an inch or less, I would be fine with the models actually painting snow over the area than hoping a theoretical system will trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Been a really rough morning. Busy and just bad stuff to deal with in the "real world" so a little behind, been seeing some stuff as it comes in but most of my comments are based on the ensembles from overnight but honestly I don't want to be overly influenced by a couple op runs at range. The snowier solutions have been hiding within the ensemble members for a while so it was only a matter of time before one showed up on the ops, the real questions is do the number of hits increase within the ensembles and among the range of ops and then we can say the signal is increasing. We will know soon. We're right at the cusp of the range where ensembles hop aboard quick instead of waffling all over. Inside of d7 is where ens skill begins to really shine with specific events. We're due for something to break right. I'm as skeptical as the next guy but the possibility of what the gfs/cmc are showing has been there for at least 3 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 As far as I know, there has only been one storm that happened south of us. Other storms, and I'm not counting that weak little clipper that buzzed through here a couple of days ago, have all trended north on models. Or west, however you want to look at it. That was the key thing with the early Jan miss to the south. It was too far east, not too far south. The look of the gfs, IMO, almost guarantees that, if that storm even exists, that it won't have any problem trending north. That confluence, suppression, etc. in the ne has been over modeled almost every time. And this time, the ridge axis out west is over Wash/Cal, not Montana/NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're right at the cusp of the range where ensembles hop aboard quick instead of waffling all over. Inside of d7 is where ens skill begins to really shine with specific events. We're due for something to break right. I'm as skeptical as the next guy but the possibility of what the gfs/cmc are showing has been there for at least 3 days now. Post them when you get them. Some of us don't have wxbell any longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: As far as I know, there has only been one storm that happened south of us. Other storms, and I'm not counting that weak little clipper that buzzed through here a couple of days ago, have all trended north on models. Or west, however you want to look at it. That was the key thing with the early Jan miss to the south. It was too far east, not too far south. The look of the gfs, IMO, almost guarantees that, if that storm even exists, that it won't have any problem trending north. That confluence, suppression, etc. in the ne has been over modeled almost every time. And this time, the ridge axis out west is over Wash/Cal, not Montana/NM. You could be right. In a couple more runs, it'll be going to our west. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You could be right. In a couple more runs, it'll be going to our west. lol LOL, yes that is possible. But I'm not worried about an actual "storm" missing us to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL, yes that is possible. But I'm not worried about an actual "storm" missing us to the south. We need a scapegoat for this winter.....where the he!! is JI when you need him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 This could never happen to us (IAD/DCA/BWI)....never! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Post them when you get them. Some of us don't have wxbell any longer. I can't. My stupid attachment folder needs like 800 files deleted before I can upload again but I have to delete them one stupid file at a time. I ain't doin that. An admin needs to clean my folder out somehow. GEFS didn't jump on it. About a 3rd show a low coming up from the south and giving us snow. Nothing fancy but one is a giant. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 CMC is like 2-3" area wide snow through 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Post them when you get them. Some of us don't have wxbell any longer. Not sure how far out you want to go... but here is through 9.5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Not sure how far out you want to go... but here is through 9.5 days some cutters in there for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It looks like if the anomaly range were higher/more expansive on that map we would easily be +5 or higher. The +8 anomaly maps I've seen look almost exactly the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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