WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Every index we track is forecast to be very favorable in about a week or 10 days. The MJO is headed in the right direction, but if you check its verification, it has be awful. Let's see if all holds and what that might do for on the ground weather next week and forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Every index we track is forecast to be very favorable in about a week or 10 days. The MJO is headed in the right direction, but if you check its verification, it has be awful. Let's see if all holds and what that might do for on the ground weather next week and forward. It's the first time I've seen all year where all ops/ens look the same with the MJO forecast. It's probably real. Now will it translate to anything down the line here....heh Overnight runs unimpressive. Same lower prob chances showing up before and after the rain storm but signal has faded somewhat during the last 24 hours. What we really need is a short range pop up to liven things up a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Guys, it's okay. Phil saw his shadow, 6 more weeks of winter. DON'T GIVE UP HOPE *I apologize in advance for my meaningless post, but felt the weather world needed to know about Phil and his met skills* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Guys, it's okay. Phil saw his shadow, 6 more weeks of winter (probably to our north). DON'T GIVE UP HOPE *I apologize in advance for my meaningless post, but felt the weather world needed to know about Phil and his met skills* Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Fixed well done, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Can we make it 6 more weeks of a good winter? This one sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Amped said: Can we make it 6 more weeks of a good winter? This one sucks. This winter is turning out worse than last winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 57 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Every index we track is forecast to be very favorable in about a week or 10 days. The MJO is headed in the right direction, but if you check its verification, it has be awful. Let's see if all holds and what that might do for on the ground weather next week and forward. I wouldn't say every index we track will be favorable ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, Jason WX said: This winter is turning out worse than last winter so far. well yeah, this time last year we were all coming off a blizzard dropping double digit totals statewide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Jason WX said: This winter is turning out worse than last every other winter we have ever seen in this area so far. Fixed 8 minutes ago, Jason WX said: This winter is turning out worse than last winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, MDstorm said: Fixed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 MJO Phase 8/SSW promised land is looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: MJO Phase 8/SSW promised land is looking great. Barf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Every index we track is forecast to be very favorable in about a week or 10 days. The MJO is headed in the right direction, but if you check its verification, it has be awful. Let's see if all holds and what that might do for on the ground weather next week and forward. It has been. What I think makes this potentially legit is the forecast strength of the MJO into phase 8. Several times this winter the MJO forecast came out of the COD...but barely. Untimately it stayed in the COD. Hopefully we can maintain the MJO though phases 1 and 2, but there is some indication it collapses before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: MJO Phase 8/SSW promised land is looking great. It looks like if the anomaly range were higher/more expansive on that map we would easily be +5 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: MJO Phase 8/SSW promised land is looking great. Haha...the EC weekly concurs with this timeframe as well. The EC is at odds with its own MJO forecast so one will be wrong. An old met told me years ago..."when in a drought, forecast a drought." Gun to my head I'm going with warm anomalies for February using that sage advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 59 minutes ago, Jason WX said: This winter is turning out worse than last winter so far. It may end up worse than 11-12 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, mappy said: Guys, it's okay. Phil saw his shadow, 6 more weeks of winter. DON'T GIVE UP HOPE *I apologize in advance for my meaningless post, but felt the weather world needed to know about Phil and his met skills* Good non-banter post. In other news, how much does the EPO turning raging positive hurt? I remember a couple years back reading that a -EPO can really help with cold outbreaks in the east, when the AO struggles to reach negative territory. The GFS forecast I saw last week has the EPO turning strongly positive. How much concern should be put in to this one connection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Good non-banter post. In other news, how much does the EPO turning raging positive hurt? I remember a couple years back reading that a -EPO can really help with cold outbreaks in the east, when the AO struggles to reach negative territory. The GFS forecast I saw last week has the EPO turning strongly positive. How much concern should be put in to this one connection? At this point I think if we could get a -AO, -NAO, +PNA, we would be able to do without the EPO being in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 27 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: Haha...the EC weekly concurs with this timeframe as well. The EC is at odds with its own MJO forecast so one will be wrong. An old met told me years ago..."when in a drought, forecast a drought." Gun to my head I'm going with warm anomalies for February using that sage advice. Sounds like that old met was a lazy f**ker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: MJO Phase 8/SSW promised land is looking great. Time to start the "warmest year ever" thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, MN Transplant said: Time to start the "warmest year ever" thread? I mean, every year is the warmest year ever now thanks to the Chinese government hoax, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: At this point I think if we could get a -AO, -NAO, +PNA, we would be able to do without the EPO being in our favor. That seems reasonable. My fear though however is even if we get a decent -nao/+pna combo.. A very strong +epo with the relative lack of real cold temp anomalies in western Canada means that pac jet will really being modifying that flow of "cold air" as it heads towards us.. In short, I worry if we're going to still have temp issues even with a decent nao given the lack of cold air in general this winter... Who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I mean, every year is the warmest year ever now thanks to the Chinese government hoax, right? I'm just saying, if we are going to blow up winter, let's go all March 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 47 minutes ago, Amped said: It may end up worse than 11-12 here. I was at 13.1" on this date in 2012. Not even close to that this year. Had 6.4 the rest of the way to finish with 19.5. I would kill to finish with 19.5 this year. Have to go back to 2002 to get close to this bad up here and even 2002 was a few inches ahead of this year at this date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I mean, every year is the warmest year ever now thanks to the Chinese government hoax, right? Cooked data! Because it is so warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was at 13.1" on this date in 2012. Not even close to that this year. Had 6.4 the rest of the way to finish with 19.5. I would kill to finish with 19.5 this year. Have to go back to 2002 to get close to this bad up here and even 2002 was a few inches ahead of this year at this date. This year is by far the worst. I recorded the same for 2012. At least we got nicked and dimed here that season. This has just gotten ridiculous. We can't even get that 1 or 2 unexpected events that hits us and nobody else. I haven't recorded any of the Dustin's or coatings this year, only the 3 inch deal in early January. I guess if I go back and include them we might have 4.5 for the year. Just pitiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 12Z GFS looks alright at 162 with a low in Texas a High to the north, cold air in place in the east and confluence. At least something to keep in eye on the next few days for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, kurtstack said: 12Z GFS looks alright at 162 with a low in Texas a High to the north, cold air in place in the east and confluence. At least something to keep in eye on the next few days for trends. GFS is showing the potential with an elongated w-e boundary instead of a sharper n-s one. This is the way the ens that had a follow up hit got it done. The simple view is to probably hope for a warmer and/or less amplified pattern beyond the rain storm. A big nasty frontal passage is going to be dry for a while behind it most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, kurtstack said: 12Z GFS looks alright at 162 with a low in Texas a High to the north, cold air in place in the east and confluence. At least something to keep in eye on the next few days for trends. That wasn't there this morning! Woo storm? --186 hours - could easily come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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