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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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2 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

Please tell me we go to a penalty shootout if there's a tie.  

Certainly.  I don't think it will come to that.  Closest tenth of inch without going over like the Price is Right.  I haven't thought of all the details. But it could be fun if there is some scratch in the game.

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29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And let's not overlook what I was yapping about earlier.  The euro changes at 12z were big, especially with the cold in the ne quadrant.

I don't see any way for an organized low to pass under us until after the front comes through. I think you agree with that but are thinking we can take advantage of the departing high before it rains right?

If so, then I agree it's possible. But I really don't see much upside potential. Maybe a light event at best. Maybe we get lucky with some sort of respectable overrunning deal before an organized low passes by to the north. Overall the chances look really low right now but who knows. Maybe something breaks right for once. I suppose it's our first shot at something so worth keeping a lookout but it's a really bad setup either way. Which is a bit of a shame. Because we have good temps for days leading in. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

If the board leadership agrees I would send it to one of them for safe keeping and make it legit.  

I'd be down for a pool with meager entry fee. Like 2-5 bucks a head through paypal or something. Get 20 of us in on that and it would be pretty fun. I'm 100% in. I love pools of all sorts.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd be down for a pool with meager entry fee. Like 2-5 bucks a head through paypal or something. Get 20 of us in on that and it would be pretty fun. I'm 100% in. I love pools of all sorts.

That's fine too.  I was going to just donate a $50 gift card.  5 bucks a head via PayPal works too.  I'd bet almost everyone in the forum that is not morally opposed would be in for 5 bucks.

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57 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I'd be willing to put up a gift card for a snow contest.  Total snowfall at DCA by 28 Feb.  just to make it interesting. Not sure if that would be permissible.  Tie breaker any other regional airport.  If it's zero at every airport then no winner I guess.

Heh! Well a pool like that would make things more fun! I still say technically my (humorous) prediction for the first warning criteria snow in that poll a couple months ago is still in the running... I said December 5. Of 2017!:lol:

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5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Heh! Well a pool like that would make things more fun! I still say technically my (humorous) prediction for the first warning criteria snow in that poll a couple months ago is still in the running... I said December 5. Of 2017!:lol:

Easy criteria.  The total final total of all 4 airports at 2359 28 Feb.  incluiding what has already been recorded.  To the nearest tenth of inch.  Tie splits the pool evenly.  Unless someone has a better idea.  Not sure how to do the PayPal part of it. 

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Easy criteria.  The total final total of all 4 airports at 2359 28 Feb.  incluiding what has already been recorded.  To the nearest tenth of inch.  Tie splits the pool evenly.  Unless someone has a better idea.  Not sure how to do the PayPal part of it. 

Would we give a total for each airport or a total for all airports put together?  Also what are your 4 airports... I only know of 3 public airports in the area.

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1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Would we give a total for each airport or a total for all airports put together?  Also what are your 4 airports... I only know of 3 public airports in the area.

I was including RIC...they are in our sub forum.  Total of all 4.  Keeps it simple in my mind.  Since the pool would be split if 5 people pick 22.5 then they split it if that's the number.  Again if someone has a better idea ok.  I'll go with whatever.

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs actually looks pretty good. Enough members with versions of the op's front end light event to take notice and actually an increased number from 12z with follow up potential. 

Are we talking about another 1-2 from the GEFS front end light event?

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8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to agree. Back in the day he was more grounded. He is completely off the rails now and it has to be by design. He isn't stupid. Just this winter he started with a cold snowy December call. Then edited to cold coming in January. Then jan 25-march. Then feb and march. And I kid you not I just saw a post today he said "like I have thought all along the cold locks in the second half of February and march."  Lol. And he has the gall to say like I've said all along after each new different forecast. I don't think he is that stupid or crazy. It's a methodology like you said. Keep em strung along another month. For every person like me who uses the site for the data some weenie is on there just to read his snow hype. He declares it over and tomorrow 300 people cancel. That's 7500 he loses next month. He isn't dumb. 

I say this knowing I don't have the pressures of issuing a high stakes forecast. I did say back early this year was probably bad and it was a matter of how bad. But there were times I was fooled and thought a colder period was coming. I busted. But I edit and correct my thinking as I go and don't just sell one can of beans all winter. Jb probably could be a good forecaster but he would rather make more money. Can't fault him I guess. 

 My theory (and it's just a theory), is that the JB issue goes way beyond the notion that he's only trying to promote a website. Social media is an incalculably multi-dimensional tool when it comes to it's ability to influence markets. In an age where weather itself has become a marketable commodity, what we've been witnessing from JB in recent years shouldn't come as much of a surprise. The capitalist in me gives him a standing ovation, though it's not without an ever-so-slight simultaneous cringe. To be blunt (there's really no other way to say it), I think that it's highly likely that there's some sort of energy futures-based incentive for him to be as cold biased as he is. Again, this is just my theory.  

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