February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[paulythegun1]

If you're hoping for a miracle day 8-10, with a piece of energy trailing the massive GL low, which serves as transient 50/50, the noon euro was a  step in the wrong direction. 8 members had 4" or more from the lagging low, but overall, there were fewer solutions that left a piece of energy behind the GLL. 

After that, there are a handful of coastal lows, days 12-15, with marginal temps along with 1 or 2 big hits. 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, snowsux said:

I used to follow JB when he was with Accuweather, and back in those days he seemed to do pretty well. He was a lot more objective, and I regarded his LR forecasts as some of the best in the business. Since he's been with WB though....not the case at all, and I highly doubt that that his well-documented cold bias in recent years has anything whatsoever to do with him being a wishful "weenie". Granted, I've never (nor will I) paid for a WB subscription, but his tweets and weekly free videos alone leave little room for argument that his primary agenda is to seek out even the most obscure cold solution for any given time period, and beat that drum until it can be beaten no more....then rinse and repeat. If you don't think there's an underlying ulterior methodology to what he's doing, and if you don't think that there's a lot of money to be made in the right circles by the use of social media alone, then I can give you a great deal on a few bridges. JB sells cold, and he sells it well. Key word there is "sell".

Hate to agree. Back in the day he was more grounded. He is completely off the rails now and it has to be by design. He isn't stupid. Just this winter he started with a cold snowy December call. Then edited to cold coming in January. Then jan 25-march. Then feb and march. And I kid you not I just saw a post today he said "like I have thought all along the cold locks in the second half of February and march."  Lol. And he has the gall to say like I've said all along after each new different forecast. I don't think he is that stupid or crazy. It's a methodology like you said. Keep em strung along another month. For every person like me who uses the site for the data some weenie is on there just to read his snow hype. He declares it over and tomorrow 300 people cancel. That's 7500 he loses next month. He isn't dumb. 

I say this knowing I don't have the pressures of issuing a high stakes forecast. I did say back early this year was probably bad and it was a matter of how bad. But there were times I was fooled and thought a colder period was coming. I busted. But I edit and correct my thinking as I go and don't just sell one can of beans all winter. Jb probably could be a good forecaster but he would rather make more money. Can't fault him I guess. 

[Bob Chill]

The thing about today's media audience is attention span and memory is really short. Sound bites and factoids blasting day in day out at 100mbs on multiple devices. TV's, tablets, PC's, phones, etc. 

JB can get away with it now very easily. The stale old failed forecasts are quickly forgotten and the new forecasts take 1st place in short term memory. If one FINALLY hits he can drive it home over and over and keep it in first place. The reason that few call him out is because few remember clearly enough how many times he's failed. Yea, weenies like us are like elephants with long range forecasts. We require people to live and die by whatever call they make and if they try to waffle down the line we'll call them out immediately. 

But "we" are the collective tiny minority. And we're pretty weird to be honest but that's a completely different discussion. The majority of the talking head's audience just sits back and takes whatever's the latest and greatest forecast and runs with it. They don't require verification or explanations for past failures. Just now dammit! Tell me what's going on right NOW! Because I won't remember later. lol

Back in the good ole days (whatever that means), you couldn't get away with nearly as much because the signal to noise ration was MUCH lower than it is today. 

[Casualbrain]

I dropped my WeatherBell sub because of JB - I can't support someone selling fake science.  In the current political environment putting your "head in the snow" even if there isn't any seems to be the way to stay in the good graces of the Govt.  Doesn't matter if a very warm wind is blowing when cold is hot and hot is cold and science is fake news.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The thing about today's media audience is attention span and memory is really short. Sound bites and factoids blasting day in day out at 100mbs on multiple devices. TV's, tablets, PC's, phones, etc. 

JB can get away with it now very easily. The stale old failed forecasts are quickly forgotten and the new forecasts take 1st place in short term memory. If one FINALLY hits he can drive it home over and over and keep it in first place. The reason that few call him out is because few remember clearly enough how many times he's failed. Yea, weenies like us are like elephants with long range forecasts. We require people to live and die by whatever call they make and if they try to waffle down the line we'll call them out immediately. 

But "we" are the collective tiny minority. And we're pretty weird to be honest but that's a completely different discussion. The majority of the talking head's audience just sits back and takes whatever's the latest and greatest forecast and runs with it. They don't require verification or explanations for past failures. Just now dammit! Tell me what's going on right NOW! Because I won't remember later. lol

perfectly said.

just like your meteo 101 earlier today.  Some of us can think it, and you just put it to "paper" better.  You get an atta boy.

nice weenie read.

Nut

 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Casualbrain said:

I dropped my WeatherBell sub because of JB - I can't support someone selling fake science.  In the current political environment putting your "head in the snow" even if there isn't any seems to be the way to stay in the good graces of the Govt.  Doesn't matter if a very warm wind is blowing when cold is hot and hot is cold and science is fake news.

I haven't looked at a single thing other that wx models on wxbell all year. I completely ignore the talking heads. That part of the site is dead to me but man, the wx models are just too sweet to not pony up for. Worth every penny but that's very subjective. I get my moneys worth. Heck, I've spent $100 since Nov watching winter very technically go down in flames week in week out. What a bargain man! LOL

[Rd9108]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to agree. Back in the day he was more grounded. He is completely off the rails now and it has to be by design. He isn't stupid. Just this winter he started with a cold snowy December call. Then edited to cold coming in January. Then jan 25-march. Then feb and march. And I kid you not I just saw a post today he said "like I have thought all along the cold locks in the second half of February and march."  Lol. And he has the gall to say like I've said all along after each new different forecast. I don't think he is that stupid or crazy. It's a methodology like you said. Keep em strung along another month. For every person like me who uses the site for the data some weenie is on there just to read his snow hype. He declares it over and tomorrow 300 people cancel. That's 7500 he loses next month. He isn't dumb. 

I say this knowing I don't have the pressures of issuing a high stakes forecast. I did say back early this year was probably bad and it was a matter of how bad. But there were times I was fooled and thought a colder period was coming. I busted. But I edit and correct my thinking as I go and don't just sell one can of beans all winter. Jb probably could be a good forecaster but he would rather make more money. Can't fault him I guess. 

Yeah I use his site for the models but do watch his atmospheric avenger, and everything you said is true. He just harks and harks on the cold. He knows what he is talking about. He just wants to overhype the weather to keep people on the hook. A drug dealer wouldn't tell his customers that his stuff isn't as strong so why would JB say winter is over. It sounds crazy, but if he says that yeah it's gonna be cold and dry then boom he loses money. If he says that this thing winter is about to go gangbusters than maybe he gets 50 more people to spend 25$  

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

perfectly said.

just like your meteo 101 earlier today.  Some of us can think it, and you just put it to "paper" better.  You get an atta boy.

nice weenie read.

Nut

 

Thanks man. Appreciate it. I mentioned watching trends going forward....but I'm not posting the 12z ens maps because they depressing. The trend is offshore with any trailing wave. The signal got weaker. Booo. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I haven't looked at a single thing other that wx models on wxbell all year. I completely ignore the talking heads. That part of the site is dead to me but man, the wx models are just too sweet to not pony up for. Worth every penny but that's very subjective. I get my moneys worth. Heck, I've spent $100 since Nov watching winter very technically go down in flames week in week out. What a bargain man! LOL

I will sometimes watch the videos but for entertainment. Sometimes I'll try to predict how jb will spin something. A game with my friends from our old PSU meteorology days. Joe D sometimes has more value. Like I said the other day the biggest tell jb is conning people is the fact Joe d pointed out the correlation between west qbo low solar cold enso winters and eastern ridging and positive AO way back in December and said this is expected yet jb has been running with this cold is coming nonsense all year. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Agreed but it's kind of circular logic. When we have a good pattern we don't need to worry about things that could shift things long range. If anything we don't want those kinds of disruptive forces when the pattern is good. When it's bad we have to look for such disrupters. Also we have nothing interesting to look at so time to do it. I agree mjo strat talk is a clear indicator things are bad. But that doesn't make them irrelevant either. Those two might be the last hope we have to shake up what is obviously the awful base state of the pattern this year. And both show signs they may. 

So essentially--the mjo and the strat could end up being our hail mary for the back end of this winter? If that's the case, I guess it's those two that'll be worth watching in the long range?

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Thanks man. Appreciate it. I mentioned watching trends going forward....but I'm not posting the 12z ens maps because they depressing. The trend is offshore with any trailing wave. The signal got weaker. Booo. 

Yea but if we want a silver lining the EPS is coming around to the gefs better look towards mid feb. I know weak consolation prize. Mjo and strat do support though so until I see signs that's off the table I'll hold some hope. But running out of time here. I'm playing one more hand then folding if I don't get some face cards before the turn. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Thanks man. Appreciate it. I mentioned watching trends going forward....but I'm not posting the 12z ens maps because they depressing. The trend is offshore with any trailing wave. The signal got weaker. Booo. 

Btw I agree that you do an excellent job putting these things into words. 

[Maestrobjwa]

And @Bob Chill, as others have echoed, thanks for taking the time to provide that dissertation! Lol But really--that was quite helpful (especially for the novices like myself)!

[DC2Winston]

Odds of DCA recording more than 2" of snow by March 1st?

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So essentially--the mjo and the strat could end up beingredients our hail mary for the back end of this winter? If that's the case, I guess it's those two that'll be worth watching in the long range?

The mjo definitely has a strong correlation to our pattern. Tropical forcing is up near the top of the list. The pacific is upstream of us and the atmosphere is driven by latent heat release and most of the heat is advecting from the tropics. They drive the bus so to speak so yea it's important. The vodoo part though is the mjo is very erratic and hard to predict long term. And it can go dormant for long stretches and have little impact. So when things are good we tend to not pay attention. But it is surging into a strong wave that will influence the pattern and it's hurting us now but looks to head into phase 8 around day 10 which places the forcing in a favorable location for cold in the east. 

The strat warm is more difficult to quantify. There is a correlation to what's going on now and PV weakening and displacement which is good and can aid in blocking. But its unpredictable where and when the blocking will show up. Not all blocking helps us equally. It could end up driving cold into Asia or Europe and not us. But what's going on now isn't a bad thing. 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

Odds of DCA recording more than 2" of snow by March 1st?

25%...if not by 15 Feb...15%...just a wag for this winter

[kurtstack]

Haha - GFS goes colder at 144 hours and provides a front end thump for the region.  Edit - thermals look good except for the 38 degree surface at 144 hours, but hey we've come down from the 75 degrees it was showing yesterday lol.

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And @Bob Chill, as others have echoed, thanks for taking the time to provide that dissertation! Lol But really--that was quite helpful (especially for the novices like myself)!

No prob man. I'm really just paying it back and not forward. I learned everything I know from the mets and smart folks on this forum. I'm a one trick pony. I'm really good with snow storms in the MA. I'm pretty good with wind on the bay but that's only because of fishing season.  But that's really it. I suck at severe, tropical, and have no idea why it snows in St Louis. I was an awful weather poster back in the Easternwx days and believe it or not I had never looked at a single weather model in my life until 2006. And 11 years later part of me wishes I never started. LOL. 

[dmillz25]

16 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

Odds of DCA recording more than 2" of snow by March 1st?

100% and I'm confident on that

[pasnownut]

37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Thanks man. Appreciate it. I mentioned watching trends going forward....but I'm not posting the 12z ens maps because they depressing. The trend is offshore with any trailing wave. The signal got weaker. Booo. 

No worries bud. Strato perturbation coupled w well timed MJO into 8 and is gonna get us in the back end again.

Nut. 

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

Odds of DCA recording more than 2" of snow by March 1st?

I'd say better than 50/50. Gun to head 66%. Feb isn't looking particularly hostile so far and it doesn't take much to break right for 2". Of course nothing has broken right all winter but all in all I doubt this winter will break futility records. It's snowed all around us so far. It's more a factor of bad luck in not having a 2" storm vs having an all out horrible pattern for everyone in the east like 11/12 and other terrible winters. 

The bigger question is will we get a 4"+ single event at DC....heh....I'm not sure I'd go 50/50 on that just yet...

[DC2Winston]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd say better than 50/50. Gun to head 66%. Feb isn't looking particularly hostile so far and it doesn't take much to break right for 2". Of course nothing has broken right all winter but all in all I doubt this winter will break futility records. It's snowed all around us so far. It's more a factor of bad luck in not having a 2" storm vs having an all out horrible pattern for everyone in the east like 11/12 and other terrible winters. 

The bigger question is will we get a 4"+ single event at DC....heh....I'm not sure I'd go 50/50 on that just yet...

Thanks.  And your last part is more of what I meant.  Odds of a single event being 2"+ at DCA.  (Meaning of course 4"+ everywhere else within 10 mile radius)

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd say better than 50/50. Gun to head 66%. Feb isn't looking particularly hostile so far and it doesn't take much to break right for 2". Of course nothing has broken right all winter but all in all I doubt this winter will break futility records. It's snowed all around us so far. It's more a factor of bad luck in not having a 2" storm vs having an all out horrible pattern for everyone in the east like 11/12 and other terrible winters. 

The bigger question is will we get a 4"+ single event at DC....heh....I'm not sure I'd go 50/50 on that just yet...

Gun to my head my over under for DCA might be around 3.5 rest of the way. iAd and bwi around 5.  The pattern doesn't look awful as you said and it doesn't take much feb to get a fluke event. But I'm having my doubts we get a single big storm this year. 

If the nao finally tanks late and in march it sets up a late season wet snow bomb up here but it's too late for the dc area you should come up for a snow BBQ. Wouldn't mind hosting a snow retreat for some of the snow starved regulars. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Is next week worth discussing yet?

[wxdude64]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gun to my head my over under for DCA might be around 3.5 rest of the way. iAd and bwi around 5.  The pattern doesn't look awful as you said and it doesn't take much feb to get a fluke event. But I'm having my doubts we get a single big storm this year. 

If the nao finally tanks late and in march it sets up a late season wet snow bomb up here but it's too late for the dc area you should come up for a snow BBQ. Wouldn't mind hosting a snow retreat for some of the snow starved regulars. 

Heck of a generous offer there psu!

[WinterWxLuvr]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gun to my head my over under for DCA might be around 3.5 rest of the way. iAd and bwi around 5.  The pattern doesn't look awful as you said and it doesn't take much feb to get a fluke event. But I'm having my doubts we get a single big storm this year. 

If the nao finally tanks late and in march it sets up a late season wet snow bomb up here but it's too late for the dc area you should come up for a snow BBQ. Wouldn't mind hosting a snow retreat for some of the snow starved regulars. 

Not a fan of big storms anyway.

What do yo think about odds of maybe a good 2 week period where we might score 2-3 decent events?

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Is next week worth discussing yet?

Sorta. IMO- the euro is doing it's over amped mid range thing. My guess is it backs off on the wound up slow moving storm. The main reason the 18z gfs had a little front end snow is because it was weaker with the lead vort so there's no closed SLP. This allows a bit of overrunning into the departing high as the main event gets organized to the NW. The main storm is going north. I don't see any hope of that coming around at this point. Could something like what the 18z gfs showed happen? Sure. But I'm not sure there is much if any upside potential to it.

OTOH- the idea of having something on the heels of the big storm to the north is still totally valid. Way to much lead time to think that option is gone. 

[Bob Chill]

18z gefs actually looks pretty good. Enough members with versions of the op's front end light event to take notice and actually an increased number from 12z with follow up potential. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs actually looks pretty good. Enough members with versions of the op's front end light event to take notice and actually an increased number from 12z with follow up potential. 

And let's not overlook what I was yapping about earlier.  The euro changes at 12z were big, especially with the cold in the ne quadrant.

[BristowWx]

50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd say better than 50/50. Gun to head 66%. Feb isn't looking particularly hostile so far and it doesn't take much to break right for 2". Of course nothing has broken right all winter but all in all I doubt this winter will break futility records. It's snowed all around us so far. It's more a factor of bad luck in not having a 2" storm vs having an all out horrible pattern for everyone in the east like 11/12 and other terrible winters. 

The bigger question is will we get a 4"+ single event at DC....heh....I'm not sure I'd go 50/50 on that just yet...

I'd be willing to put up a gift card for a snow contest.  Total snowfall at DCA by 28 Feb.  just to make it interesting. Not sure if that would be permissible.  Tie breaker any other regional airport.  If it's zero at every airport then no winner I guess.