February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[snowsux]

13 hours ago, BristowWx said:

I sometimes wonder if JB puts out the same hype-ish forecasts to his core business traders.  It's one thing to tell a bunch of weenies it's going to be cold and snowy and then bust but another to tell those who pay for accuracy because they have skin in the weather (oil and gas futures, retailers etc) the same thing and be wrong.  My guess is no.  Those forecasts are likely his real thoughts and probably far more steeped in the facts. He might be a wishful weenie at heart but business is business and cash rules.Those type clients are not interested in snow and cold because they are winter weather enthusiasts.   Just my 2 cents.

I used to follow JB when he was with Accuweather, and back in those days he seemed to do pretty well. He was a lot more objective, and I regarded his LR forecasts as some of the best in the business. Since he's been with WB though....not the case at all, and I highly doubt that that his well-documented cold bias in recent years has anything whatsoever to do with him being a wishful "weenie". Granted, I've never (nor will I) paid for a WB subscription, but his tweets and weekly free videos alone leave little room for argument that his primary agenda is to seek out even the most obscure cold solution for any given time period, and beat that drum until it can be beaten no more....then rinse and repeat. If you don't think there's an underlying ulterior methodology to what he's doing, and if you don't think that there's a lot of money to be made in the right circles by the use of social media alone, then I can give you a great deal on a few bridges. JB sells cold, and he sells it well. Key word there is "sell".

[Wonderdog]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Start with the very basic ens mean plots. Op models are a bad place to make decisions on longer lead stuff (beyond 5-7 days). They'll jump every run and present all kinds of different  solutions. When the rare case happens like with the blizzard where they don't jump then they definitely carry a good bit of weight. But that hasn't been the case a single time this year so relying on them is bad practice. 

Here's a good exercise. The follow up storm beyond this weekend is a big warm rainer. It's nearly a lock now. Using the MSLP panels from the GEFS/EPS from last night show a very strong signal for a rain storm with low pressure passing to the north. High pressure off the coast and low pressure to the NW = very strong SW midlevel and surface flow. Terrible for winter wx:

 

 

 

 

Mean mid level temps for the same period:

 

 

 

What happens after gets really muddy really quick. First thing to do is think back in history to how often we get storms right on the heels of a strong NW low passage/cold front with a western atlantic ridge. Can you think of many? I can't either. It's worked out before (2014 & 15 we're very kind) but not nearly often enough to invest a whole lot of energy at 7+ day leads.  The timing has to be perfect.  Anything forming along the trailing boundary is going to be a fast mover and we would need everything to come together just right. It's complicated and we don't do complicated well.  

Take a look at this panel. This is right about when the front is clearing after the rain storm. See the red ball off the coast of canada in the wetern atlantic? Think of that as a storm vacuum. Anything running the boundary is going to race to that spot. See the sharp sw-ne gradient on the height contours? Think of those lines as lanes in a highway. The steering mechanism in the upper levels. What we want to see is a big blue ball where the red ball is and a much more w-e gradient with the lines instead of sw-ne. The w-e gradient is called confluence. This blocks storms and provides a feed of cold air from the north. Not the case right now:

 

Ensembles do show the *possibility* of something running the boundary after the cold sweeps in. But it all has to break right. A storm may not form at all. Or it will form harmlessly off the coast and rain/snow on the fishes. Being in the bullseye can work out but if it does happen it will be beating strong odds against it happening vs taking advantage of a favorable setup. 

 

Here's the ens MSLP plots from the GEFS/EPS. You can see the signal for a coastal running the boundary:

 

 

 

 

 

What are the problems with these mean plots? The big one is high pressure placement. It's directly to the west of the storm. What we want to see is high pressure over the top. If that was the case right now it would be a much better storm signal at range. 

 

Unless you want to pay for detailed EPS panels, the best free tools are the basic EPS mean panels on trop tidbits but another fantastic GEFS tool is also available on TT. Never overlook the 24 hour mean precip panels and the individual member low pressure location plots. Gives you an idea how the clusters look and also chances for precip. 

The 0z GEFS actually looks pretty good with both panels for the trailing wave. 

 

Here's the mean precip panel. It's awful wet for the lead time to be honest. .5" QPF @ 216 hours is pretty strong:

 

 

Here's the MSLP member locations. Pretty muddy to be honest but there are some really big hits on the 0z GEFS and also the EPS run so hope is alive:

 

 

 

 

Is there a signal for a follow up storm? Yes, there definitely is. Is it a strong signal? No, definitely not. The setup is tenuous, the lead is long, and going off past history we don't do well with this kind of stuff. 

Now is time to monitor trends. The idea is out there. The possibility is there. If consensus within the ensemble suites keeps improving then it will get more interesting. For right now we just have a modest chance at an unusual way to get a good storm to work out. That's it. 

 

Great post Bob! Thanks for taking the time to put that all together..

And thank you Cape!

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, snowsux said:

I used to follow JB when he was with Accuweather, and back in those days he seemed to do pretty well. He was a lot more objective, and I regarded his LR forecasts as some of the best in the business. Since he's been with WB though....not the case at all, and I highly doubt that that his well-documented cold bias in recent years has anything whatsoever to do with him being a wishful "weenie". Granted, I've never (nor will I) paid for a WB subscription, but his tweets and weekly free videos alone leave little room for argument that his primary agenda is to seek out even the most obscure cold solution for any given time period, and beat that drum until it can be beaten no more....then rinse and repeat. If you don't think there's an underlying ulterior methodology to what he's doing, and if you don't think that there's a lot of money to be made in the right circles by the use of social media alone, then I can give you a great deal on a few bridges. JB sells cold, and he sells it well. Key word there is "sell".

Interesting perspective.  I wasn't thinking from that angle but makes sense.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

32 minutes ago, Amped said:

Oh great, maybe a couple of inches on the front end that gets whiped out by an inch of rain before dogs even get a chance to pee in it. Shouldn't even count.

Neither should your post.

[Eskimo Joe]

57 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

CANSIPS had another solid monthly forecast for January. 

 

that was a great forecast by CanSips...looks like the only part that didn't verify well was Greenland & Newfoundland. 

[stormtracker]

48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Neither should your post.

High five. 

[NorthArlington101]

No precip on the EURO for this weekend, if its not gonna snow, might as well not do anything I guess.

[snowsux]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Interesting perspective.  I wasn't thinking from that angle but makes sense.  

 It's the only thing that does.

 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

No precip on the EURO for this weekend, if its not gonna snow, might as well not do anything I guess.

Such a shame.....2 and a half minutes of play-by-play by Deck Pic the other day wasted    

[Chase]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Such a shame.....2 and a half minutes of play-by-play by Deck Pic the other day wasted    

But a big reason why NBC4 and ABC7 should stop doing a 10 day.  Doug Kammerer started a hooplah, as he did for the others this winter.  

[yoda]

Middle of next week sucks... nice rain.  1027 H in Quebec ain't gonna do much

[WinterWxLuvr]

Compare the Euro surface map of 150h today with 174h from yesterdays run.

Anybody who thinks big change isn't possible is kidding themselves.  Who knows, before we die, a big change may work in our favor.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Compare the Euro surface map of 150h today with 174h from yesterdays run.

Anybody who thinks big change isn't possible is kidding themselves.  Who knows, before we die, a big change may work in our favor.

It's a big change, but still doesn't help much when the 850 0C line is in NY state ahead of the storm. 

[psuhoffman]

That was an excellent post by Bob.  I am posting again below the mean composite h5 for 7 of our biggest snows of the last 30 years.  This is a good starting point.  Whenever you see this its a loaded pattern.  This is the "what we want" look.  This is the look 2 days before and the day of.  

Of course most of our snow doesn't come from the perfect setup in 2 foot dumps.  We can get snow with less ideal setups.  But that is where things get complicated.  Weighting variables and how they can compensate to give us a workable setup despite a less then ideal look.  I wish I could post a "this is how it works" for each type of threat but we would be here for days and days.  That is where the "oh I have seen this before" experience comes in.  Knowing how these factors work off each other to create a threat.  Then there is always the chance we get lucky and score in a bad setup.  We almost did in Mid January but the timing was a little off.   What makes a threat window is also subjective.  Sometimes we have an awful pattern with no chance.  Other times its loaded.  But most of the time its somewhere in between.  We have some chance of snow most of the time in the base state of winter.  What becomes an actual threat window and how high a chance you need to get to that line is debatable.  We are just talking about playing percentages here.  A threat window may just be a period where our chances of significant snow are 30% over a 5 day period versus perhaps a 15-20% chance during a normal base state pattern in winter.  

So applying that to where we are heading in the guidance.  (and yes its in that models suck range but I can't analyze nothing and the next week is total crap as the MJO spikes into the god awful phases and totally destroys the pattern for a bit.  So I am looking ahead to when it should be into Phase 8 and set up a better look again.  This is mostly for fun and learning)

Day 8-9 threat

That isnt a totally awful look.  Comparing it to the what we want look up top its close in some ways.  But that WAR is an obvious flaw.  Unfortunately its a MAJOR flaw.  Bob did a good job discussing what we would need in terms of timing up waves and such to make that work and its a long shot.  Yea there is SOME support there and worth watching when it gets closer but that is not the kind of thing worth wasting time analyzing until its within a few days.  

After that things start to develop into a pretty good look up top.  Negative NAO and AO.  PNA ridge.  Trough in the east.  

Now were getting really close.  The WAR is beat down, yea there is no 50/50 low but those typicaly are transient so wash out in means that far out.  They can pop up with blocking like that closer in.  The issue there is the trough axis in the east is centered a bit north of where we want it.  We really want that digging under us.  This actually looked better the last few GEFS runs and its not shocking to me the GEFS this run backed off on snow in the long range a bit.  Still for that range were nitpicking but the Op GFS shows a similar result where a storm amplifies just a bit north for us and slams New England.  This is a great look for them, not so much for us.  That kind of thing will shift around run to run from that range, so were close enough to be in the game for a threat in that window, but its not perfect enough for me to say its a definite window.  If we can get that system to bomb out to our northeast into the 50/50 space then it would setup a REALLY good window after but now were talking about a LOT of maybes that have to happen.  

Below is one example of a storm we got with a WAR.  It can happen but it requires a lot else to go right and perfect timing with where the system amplifies to compensate.   This was from the Feb 14 2014 storm.   

 

 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It's a big change, but still doesn't help much when the 850 0C line is in NY state ahead of the storm. 

One thing that didn't change at all is a storm vacuum red blob where we need a blue blob. This thing is going warm, rainy, and west unless that changes.

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It's a big change, but still doesn't help much when the 850 0C line is in NY state ahead of the storm. 

Yesterday, for next Wed MORNING, the Euro had central PA near 60.  Today, mid 30's.  Yesterday, southern Vt low 50's.  Today, low 20's.

The low position has changed by 300 miles.

Of course it's likely to never be good for us.  I think I'll wait and see first.

[mitchnick]

Epically craptastic Euro run

[North Balti Zen]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Epically craptastic Euro run

BWI/Balt area futility chase alive and well.

[Yeoman]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Epically craptastic Euro run

Great news - since anything forecasted past day 5 turns out the exact opposite

[BTRWx]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That was an excellent post by Bob.  I am posting again below the mean composite h5 for 7 of our biggest snows of the last 30 years.  This is a good starting point.  Whenever you see this its a loaded pattern.  This is the "what we want" look.  This is the look 2 days before and the day of.  

Of course most of our snow doesn't come from the perfect setup in 2 foot dumps.  We can get snow with less ideal setups.  But that is where things get complicated.  Weighting variables and how they can compensate to give us a workable setup despite a less then ideal look.  I wish I could post a "this is how it works" for each type of threat but we would be here for days and days.  That is where the "oh I have seen this before" experience comes in.  Knowing how these factors work off each other to create a threat.  Then there is always the chance we get lucky and score in a bad setup.  We almost did in Mid January but the timing was a little off.   What makes a threat window is also subjective.  Sometimes we have an awful pattern with no chance.  Other times its loaded.  But most of the time its somewhere in between.  We have some chance of snow most of the time in the base state of winter.  What becomes an actual threat window and how high a chance you need to get to that line is debatable.  We are just talking about playing percentages here.  A threat window may just be a period where our chances of significant snow are 30% over a 5 day period versus perhaps a 15-20% chance during a normal base state pattern in winter.  

So applying that to where we are heading in the guidance.  (and yes its in that models suck range but I can't analyze nothing and the next week is total crap as the MJO spikes into the god awful phases and totally destroys the pattern for a bit.  So I am looking ahead to when it should be into Phase 8 and set up a better look again.  This is mostly for fun and learning)

Day 8-9 threat

That isnt a totally awful look.  Comparing it to the what we want look up top its close in some ways.  But that WAR is an obvious flaw.  Unfortunately its a MAJOR flaw.  Bob did a good job discussing what we would need in terms of timing up waves and such to make that work and its a long shot.  Yea there is SOME support there and worth watching when it gets closer but that is not the kind of thing worth wasting time analyzing until its within a few days.  

After that things start to develop into a pretty good look up top.  Negative NAO and AO.  PNA ridge.  Trough in the east.  

Now were getting really close.  The WAR is beat down, yea there is no 50/50 low but those typicaly are transient so wash out in means that far out.  They can pop up with blocking like that closer in.  The issue there is the trough axis in the east is centered a bit north of where we want it.  We really want that digging under us.  This actually looked better the last few GEFS runs and its not shocking to me the GEFS this run backed off on snow in the long range a bit.  Still for that range were nitpicking but the Op GFS shows a similar result where a storm amplifies just a bit north for us and slams New England.  This is a great look for them, not so much for us.  That kind of thing will shift around run to run from that range, so were close enough to be in the game for a threat in that window, but its not perfect enough for me to say its a definite window.  If we can get that system to bomb out to our northeast into the 50/50 space then it would setup a REALLY good window after but now were talking about a LOT of maybes that have to happen.  

Below is one example of a storm we got with a WAR.  It can happen but it requires a lot else to go right and perfect timing with where the system amplifies to compensate.   This was from the Feb 14 2014 storm.   

 

 

Why has nobody been using the analog thread lately?  It might be a good place for what you said wouldn't fit here.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Epically craptastic Euro run

What did you expect given this....

.

The MJO wave has trended into an amplitude that will have a significant effect on the pattern and its taking the tour of warm phases day 1-10.  The good news it its then going gangbusters into cold phases after.  But given that look the next 10 days are toast.  

3 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Great news - since anything forecasted past day 5 turns out the exact opposite

Be careful one of the reasons for such volatility this year has been a lack of dominant forcing from predictable sources.  If the MJO becomes a dominant player over the next couple weeks the pattern could become more stable to predict for guidance.  I think the awful look day 1-10 is likely correct.  Hopefully the better look after is also correct.  

[BTRWx]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Epically craptastic Euro run

Whenever you see auto-corrects like this, you know things aren't looking good.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Interesting how it wants to race through 4, 5, 6 faster now ie. closer to the center circle!

The best sign is the longer range projections go nuts into 8 then slow it down or kill it after so the better look it sets up could stick a while. 

Honestly if it was 10 days ago and I was seeing this with the mjo and strat I would be very optimistic. But the problem is we're running out of time fast now. Once into march setups need to be perfect. Marginal things tilt the wrong way. We waste pretty good threats. We have one last shot to get this right. Have to see this progress and set up by Presidents' Day.  Any delay and we're screwed. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The best sign is the longer range projections go nuts into 8 then slow it down or kill it after so the better look it sets up could stick a while. 

Honestly if it was 10 days ago and I was seeing this with the mjo and strat I would be very optimistic. But the problem is we're running out of time fast now. Once into march setups need to be perfect. Marginal things tilt the wrong way. We waste pretty good threats. We have one last shot to get this right. Have to see this progress and set up by Presidents' Day.  Any delay and we're screwed. 

Yeah and then really amps it up in those regions.

 

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What did you expect given this....

.

The MJO wave has trended into an amplitude that will have a significant effect on the pattern and its taking the tour of warm phases day 1-10.  The good news it its then going gangbusters into cold phases after.  But given that look the next 10 days are toast.  

Be careful one of the reasons for such volatility this year has been a lack of dominant forcing from predictable sources.  If the MJO becomes a dominant player over the next couple weeks the pattern could become more stable to predict for guidance.  I think the awful look day 1-10 is likely correct.  Hopefully the better look after is also correct.  

Well, considering last night's run wasn't that bad, at least temp wise, I thought anything could happen. But the problem, as you mention, with the MJO forecast is that we know that it is going into the bad phases (because we're there already) but don't know if we ever make it into the good phases, and for how long. Nobody can answer that, of course, but 3 days ago the MJO forecast wasn't that bad by staying in the COD and then amplifying once into Phase 8. Hence, whether to expect things finally do break into a decent phase rests solely on whether the MJO forecast for 10+ days from now can hold. Considering what it looked like 3 days ago, I can't say it's a warm and fuzzy feeling, but there's not a darn thing we can do about it.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Well, considering last night's run wasn't that bad, at least temp wise, I thought anything could happen. But the problem, as you mention, with the MJO forecast is that we know that it is going into the bad phases (because we're there already) but don't know if we ever make it into the good phases, and for how long. Nobody can answer that, of course, but 3 days ago the MJO forecast wasn't that bad by staying in the COD and then amplifying once into Phase 8. Hence, whether to expect things finally do break into a decent phase rests solely on whether the MJO forecast for 10+ days from now can hold. Considering what it looked like 3 days ago, I can't say it's a warm and fuzzy feeling, but there's not a darn thing we can do about it.

The stronger it gets the better chance it makes it. And it's moving closer. But your right it's risky. 

[Bob Chill]

The 2 biggest indicators of a terrible winter are when the strat and mjo are discussed in the long range thread. I'm not knocking the disco. I'm glad they are both being discussed. But sure as the sun rises, if you go back 10 years and look at the LR threads during sh!t winters, the strat and mjo talk shows up aplenty. Never a good sign. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The 2 biggest indicators of a terrible winter are when the strat and mjo are discussed in the long range thread. I'm not knocking the disco. I'm glad they are both being discussed. But sure as the sun rises, if you go back 10 years and look at the LR threads during sh!t winters, the strat and mjo talk shows up aplenty. Never a good sign. 

Talking about weather over the equator and the North Pole vs. here is always a good clue for the kind of winter we're having.

[Round Hill WX]

The week 3 EC weekly and the CFS 2m temp anomaly for the same time are absolute torches. The MJO is now forecast to be around 8 at the same time. One of them is going to be proven wrong. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Talking about weather over the equator and the North Pole vs. here is always a good clue for the kind of winter we're having.

 

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The 2 biggest indicators of a terrible winter are when the strat and mjo are discussed in the long range thread. I'm not knocking the disco. I'm glad they are both being discussed. But sure as the sun rises, if you go back 10 years and look at the LR threads during sh!t winters, the strat and mjo talk shows up aplenty. Never a good sign. 

Agreed but it's kind of circular logic. When we have a good pattern we don't need to worry about things that could shift things long range. If anything we don't want those kinds of disruptive forces when the pattern is good. When it's bad we have to look for such disrupters. Also we have nothing interesting to look at so time to do it. I agree mjo strat talk is a clear indicator things are bad. But that doesn't make them irrelevant either. Those two might be the last hope we have to shake up what is obviously the awful base state of the pattern this year. And both show signs they may.