psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, BTRWx said: On that thought, teleconnections seem to be showing some improvement for that period too. I at least like the stronger amplitude through phases 8 and 1 being modeled. That EPO is gonna be a problem, but get enough blocking over GL and PNA ridge and we can overcome it. But we NEED nao help if were going to be dealing with that kind of EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That EPO is gonna be a problem, but get enough blocking over GL and PNA ridge and we can overcome it. But we NEED nao help if were going to be dealing with that kind of EPO. yea, and the ao is trending better too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I putting all my chips on the d10 anafront. We score all the time with those. Think you would have better chances finding snow with the local drug dealer in Baltimore. And just so this is a legit post: The 500's look somewhat interesting day 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I putting all my chips on the d10 anafront. We score all the time with those. Its especially good when it shows up at day 10. Those are always the kinds of things that hold for 40 consecutive runs. With that WAR about the only way we could score snow would be for the trough to stall and something to pop on the back side like its showing. But that doesn't make it any more likely just because its what we need, if anything less. I am more interested in what happens after. There are enough good things showing up in the base state of the pattern to have some hope that the MJO and Strat warm could combine to shove us into a better look late. Actually if we believe the GEFS look towards day 15 the one thing we need is lower heights over the 50/50 region and the rest is very workable. EPS look needs a bit more help but its not all that far either if some things break out way. But now were back to chasing pattern ghosts again, very discouraging after what was in front of us just a couple days ago. We look to waste what isnt that bad a look for a week because suddenly the wave train of storms has gone dead. It will come back as soon as we warm up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, BTRWx said: yea, and the ao is trending better too Our last best hope (not babylon 5) is going to be that the real phase change in the AO/NAO is finally underway. Perhaps this weeks minor adjustment was just a precursor to a complete flip (perhaps triggered by the MJO strat combo) in another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 long range op GFS run looks like total garbage. Hopefully GEFS doesn't head that way. PNA ridge is the only thing we have going for us there. Raging positive NAO, positive EPO, WAR. The PNA would prevent an all out torch but getting any meaningful snow in that pattern would be beyond difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 28 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Sorry but keep looking. 534 countour is now 540. Noticeable tick north w/ R/S line as it was in SW WVA, and now is almost int KPIT. Not good, but not commenting beyond, as the fish will continue to flop beyone 5-7 days. Nut LOL, why would I look at the the 540 contour? If there's no precip, does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am more interested in what happens after. Unless the weekend deal can shift back to a more dominant ss vort, I'm no longer interested in anything for a while. It's become more than tiresome at this point discussing beyond the medium range because anything we discuss beyond that range morphs into something other than good once we is close inside of a week. Just one of those years I suppose. Not particularly uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 It matters not what any model or its ensemble show past day 5. You can argue all you want that it does, but it doesn't. You can go back in this thread and read the excited posts about how great they both looked about 3 days ago. How are they looking now? They are conversation pieces only. If it doesn't look good today, wait, I'm sure it will change shortly. How are those snow maps that were so pretty a couple of days ago looking now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I think a lot of the frustration in here doesn't come from looking at the longer range, but the fact that the long range has looked good numerous times and then literally never materializes. If you had a good look in the long range and then it came to fruition once or twice, at least there would be some hope/confidence that other long range looks could be right, therefore making it more interesting to track. Right now, it's just comical how nothing at the 8-10 day period seems to ever get closer in time. Couldn't agree more--I know that's the frustration for me. LR is obviously never gonna be 70 or even 60 percent right, but...this year none of it has even been close. Promising looks disappear rather dramatically inside of 7 days (It's been a bad year for the models in that range, in my inexperienced opinion, lol). Not having something reliable to track wears on ya after awhile (any theories on what's been confusing the models so much?) And are there any good signs for the month of February in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: long range op GFS run looks like total garbage. Hopefully GEFS doesn't head that way. PNA ridge is the only thing we have going for us there. Raging positive NAO, positive EPO, WAR. The PNA would prevent an all out torch but getting any meaningful snow in that pattern would be beyond difficult. There's no way this map is a raging nao. It's actually quite favorable in the arctic if a low develops I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Unless the weekend deal can shift back to a more dominant ss vort, I'm no longer interested in anything for a while. It's become more than tiresome at this point discussing beyond the medium range because anything we discuss beyond that range morphs into something other than good once we is close inside of a week. Just one of those years I suppose. Not particularly uncommon. I think the key for the weekend has to be the death of that low to our north. It's weaker than it was yesterday afternoon. I'd like to see that thing disappear completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think the key for the weekend has to be the death of that low to our north. It's weaker than it was yesterday afternoon. I'd like to see that thing disappear completely. Yes, that or separate them with the best outcome being the NS trailing the SS one. Or just having the NS one far enough north to not have such a tug on flow out front and shearing the precip shield. It's not dead in the water yet or anything. Any chance of a more significant event are on the ropes though but still hanging by a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 12z CMC has a more vigorous sw behind our mid week storm than the GFS is showing. Decent setup. Not sure anyone cares about day 10 though at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Very messy look on the gefs early on, but that could be good for us. I'll be uploading my maps now since they don't last forever on website servers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, tstate21 said: 12z CMC has a more vigorous sw behind our mid week storm than the GFS is showing. Decent setup. Not sure anyone cares about day 10 though at this point... Setup at 500mb actually looks pretty good for a follow up around day 12 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 21 minutes ago, BTRWx said: There's no way this map is a raging nao. It's actually quite favorable in the arctic if a low develops I believe. Maybe we are looking at different things but this right here is a pretty positive NAO. Go back and look at the composites I posted on the big snows. The look in the Atlantic is the exact opposite of what we want. Swap the reds and blues and it would be a good pattern. Maybe someone messed up the crayons at NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe we are looking at different things but this right here is a pretty positive NAO. The lower heights over GL are exact opposite of what we want. yep, two different weeks. The end of the run is trending backwards for us, but the fact that it's the end of the run matters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Setup at 500mb actually looks pretty good for a follow up around day 12 as well. And were back... yes I saw the look and yea its good but yea its 12 days away and the GGEM so I just didn't bother to spend any time on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: yep, two different weeks. The end of the run is trending backwards for us, but the fact that it's the end of the run matters! Unfortunately the WAR is there the whole time from about day 8 on. Were not going to have much luck until that changes. The NAO is kind of neutral at times but not exactly helpful and nothing close to whats needed given the rest of the look in the atlantic. Its the complete opposite of what we want. But its just the op run at range so the GEFS are way more important. But if things trend towards that kiss any chances we have goodbye for a while. Were getting late in the year for needing total pattern reboots. Its one thing if we break down to a mediocre look and then the MJO perhaps shoves us into a better pattern mid month, but if we head back towards a craptastic look that needs multiple things to change were probably done for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Unfortunately the WAR is there the whole time from about day 8 on. Were not going to have much luck until that changes. The NAO is kind of neutral at times but not exactly helpful and nothing close to whats needed given the rest of the look in the atlantic. Its the complete opposite of what we want. But its just the op run at range so the GEFS are way more important. But if things trend towards that kiss any chances we have goodbye for a while. Were getting late in the year for needing total pattern reboots. Its one thing if we break down to a mediocre look and then the MJO perhaps shoves us into a better pattern mid month, but if we head back towards a craptastic look that needs multiple things to change were probably done for the season. The cold comes crashing and should situate itself for us for a while around Nov Feb 10 (what was I thinking?!). The big question mark is if a storm can ride up the coast during such an anticipated arctic outbreak. Ensembles show good consensus for the cold. I'm stunned how many lows literally jump from the Plains to the Atlantic in 24 hour increments on the 12z gefs! Highly unlikely just from physical processes. The following three maps show an example of the day-to-day chaos I mentioned above. hopefully that cleans it up a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: The cold comes crashing and should situate itself for us for a while around Nov 10. The big question mark is if a storm can ride up the coast during such an anticipated arctic outbreak. Ensembles show good consensus for the cold. I'm stunned how many lows literally jump from the Plains to the Atlantic in 24 hour increments on the 12z gefs! Highly unlikely just from physical processes. Cool, so just 10 months until it might snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Just now, eurojosh said: Cool, so just 10 months until it might snow. I thought he really meant November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It matters not what any model or its ensemble show past day 5. You can argue all you want that it does, but it doesn't. You can go back in this thread and read the excited posts about how great they both looked about 3 days ago. How are they looking now? They are conversation pieces only. If it doesn't look good today, wait, I'm sure it will change shortly. How are those snow maps that were so pretty a couple of days ago looking now? Nonsense. You just have to have a better understanding of the tools, what they represent, and have a grasp on the practical predictability at those lead times. I'll agree with you that people shouldn't be looking at the deterministic details at those time ranges, but models are skillful enough at sniffing out patterns and setups. You should also look at guidance in the 6-14 day range in terms of something like a time-lagged ensemble instead of independent, deterministic forecasts each cycle every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, BTRWx said: The cold comes crashing and should situate itself for us for a while around Nov Feb 10 (what was I thinking?!). The big question mark is if a storm can ride up the coast during such an anticipated arctic outbreak. Ensembles show good consensus for the cold. I'm stunned how many lows literally jump from the Plains to the Atlantic in 24 hour increments on the 12z gefs! Highly unlikely just from physical processes. The following three maps show an example of the day-to-day chaos I mentioned above. hopefully that cleans it up a little The pattern evolution you describe is one that is a low probability setup. I am not discounting it, and we have snowed that way before, but its not the typical or classical way we get it done here. Absent a better look in the atlantic in the day 8-13 period though, we would need something to time up perfectly behind a front. That is not something I am going to waste much time on from that far out. Those things are usually last minute pop up type things. Now the GEFS day 16 on the other hand is a good look as I was about to post on below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, dtk said: Nonsense. You just have to have a better understanding of the tools, what they represent, and have a grasp on the practical predictability at those lead times. I'll agree with you that people shouldn't be looking at the deterministic details at those time ranges, but models are skillful enough at sniffing out patterns and setups. You should also look at guidance in the 6-14 day range in terms of something like a time-lagged ensemble instead of independent, deterministic forecasts each cycle every 6 hours. Would that be the same as using TropicalTidBits 5-day average maps like this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 Probably noise but 7 or so GEFS models have some snow around day 4. This event showed up a couple days back on the GFS and I've been watching the ensembles with it. It's been trending ever so slightly better, overall its a better look for southern areas again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Probably noise but 7 or so GEFS models have some snow around day 4. This event showed up a couple days back on the GFS and I've been watching the ensembles with it. It's been trending ever so slightly better, overall its a better look for southern areas again. That's the event I was talking with Ji about yesterday. It is Friday night, correct? I think yesterday I said Thursday night because for whatever reason I thought Friday was the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 This is a much closer look to what we need then anything we have seen if we want a chance at a significant snow. The one flaw here is still the ridging to our northeast but its trending better towards the end and is pretty close overall to the look I posted before from our big snowstorms. But that look near 50/50 is huge and needs to change. Get that adjustment and this is a pretty darn good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2017 Share Posted January 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That's the event I was talking with Ji about yesterday. It is Friday night, correct? I think yesterday I said Thursday night because for whatever reason I thought Friday was the 4th. Yeah, that would be Friday. The GEFS seem to be leaning towards it being too dry to even produce any rain in the Carolinas, but it's something to keep an eye on so we don't have to keep looking at Day 7. IIRC the EPS didn't like the threat at all last run though, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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