aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Good thing they smooth out the results when grading the models because this day to day change crap is dizzying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Maybe I'm feeling a little cocky with the ground-whitening squall that just went through, but I have to admit that the day 10 500mb map is very encouraging to my eyes. Welcome to the dark side. Next thing you know you will be buying into the snowfall means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 @mitchnick What's the lag time from a trough setting up in Japan to one setting up on the east coast? 3-5 days? That would make your window day 10-12. Want to call it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Not to commit blasphemy against the king but the euro has been jumping around the most for a week now. Gefs has been slightly better in at least keeping some continuity run to run. Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: @mitchnick What's the lag time from a trough setting up in Japan to one setting up on the east coast? 3-5 days? That would make your window day 10-12. Want to call it now? Welp, first we have to see if it's transient or not. We've had it before this winter, but its been transient. Otoh, this is the deepest one so far this year, so let's see. I do believe that it takes 7 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well at least we won't have to build up false hope for that one! (Hopefully the period after will yield some results...You can only miss so many times, lol) It's always the period after. Like Bob Chill said earlier. Better to concentrate on this Sunday only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not to commit blasphemy against the king but the euro has been jumping around the most for a week now. Gefs has been slightly better in at least keeping some continuity run to run. Just an observation. Someone just got on DT's naughty list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 The euro is better in the 3-6 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: It's always the period after. Like Bob Chill said earlier. Better to concentrate on this Sunday only. Yep! Given how the LR has proven to be more erratic that usual, seems like there should be a separate thread for the medium range (like a 5-7 day thread), lol Because inside of that range seems to be the only useful thing atm. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the LR this year hasn't been able to pick up on something in the pattern this year!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro is better in the 3-6 hour range. I hate the euro. It just ****s on our parade every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 The euro just made a big jump towards the best solution we can really hope for in this setup which is a gfs type result. And it's been wildly jumpy after day 7 lately. Not taking any more from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The euro just made a big jump towards the best solution we can really hope for in this setup which is a gfs type result. And it's been wildly jumpy after day 7 lately. Not taking any more from it. For which storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: For which storm? Is this the Super Bowl mixed mash up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I hope this suberbowl storm is better than the 2015 one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I hope this suberbowl storm is better than the 2015 one. Was that the super cold one where ratios disappointed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Was that the super cold one where ratios disappointed? Nope. It was the one that kept trending north across the Midwest until we were out of the game and SNE got their 100th event of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I missed last night. Can't stay awake like Jeb. He's a machine. Would be nice to have a mid day snow while eating wings and drinking beer. We need this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Euro ens looking really good for the weekend irt to snow chances in general. Really backing away from the idea of the ns vort screwing everything up. Many solutions similar to the gfs, some big hits, and some whiff souths. Crappy rain solutions in the clear minority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ens looking really good for the weekend irt to snow chances in general. Really backing away from the idea of the ns vort screwing everything up. Many solutions similar to the gfs, some big hits, and some whiff souths. Crappy rain solutions in the clear minority. I'm actually feeling this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ens looking really good for the weekend irt to snow chances in general. Really backing away from the idea of the ns vort screwing everything up. Many solutions similar to the gfs, some big hits, and some whiff souths. Crappy rain solutions in the clear minority. What some good news? Blasphemous! Ground should be decently cold this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The euro just made a big jump towards the best solution we can really hope for in this setup which is a gfs type result. And it's been wildly jumpy after day 7 lately. Not taking any more from it. Definitely a better look. Better high placement. Signs of CAD. Slightly better ridging behind. And a more pronounced trough. Edit: And after just reading Bob's post realized I missed one. No GL low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I'm actually feeling this one. I am too. I'm not greedy in any way. I'd be thrilled with 2-4. Over the moon with 3-6. Trending away from the northern stream wrecking mid levels and precip shields inside of 7 days is a good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 This is the euro initialization and 24 hours from now. Looks pretty good. And pretty close to the look 2 weeks ago for now that got some of us hopeful. But it didn't produce anything of significance. A weak clipper and some squalls. But that doesn't mean the guidance busted. We got a better pattern. Doesn't mean it will snow. We strike out a lot in good patterns. It's kinda like having a better hitter at bat vs a pitcher. So our odds went from 10% to 30% but it still takes multiple at bats to get a hit sometimes. Problem this year was the best hitters we had we're only batting 270 and only got two at bats. Now we have a 300 hitter but he just struck out his first at bad. This time it looks like we get another at bat and perhaps two before a break. Hopefully another reload and not a long string of pitchers at bat after. But we wasted so much of winter with no shot that it feels more urgent when we waste a decent pattern. But just because it didn't snow doesn't make the long range guidance that showed this general thing wrong. We can't predict those specifics like what relatively small area will get lucky and end up with white ground from any single event from that far out. If your over in southern NJ with 4" right now your thinking they nailed it. I feel like our lack of snow and lack of many opportunities is affecting our impression of the models performance. They have had issues but nothing monumentally bad imo. They seem worse when we cherry pick the handful of long range op runs that show snow and expect that. But what about all the runs that had a miss? This next storm is the first where a majority consensus showed snow so if it goes to complete crap that would be a legit failure. But it's still a threat so we can't say that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nope. It was the one that kept trending north across the Midwest until we were out of the game and SNE got their 100th event of the year. Was that one with the models consistently having it up until 4 days or so before and then a 18z run took it to Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Go ahead and lock this weekend up. What could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Go ahead and lock this weekend up. What could possibly go wrong? Says the Vikings fan lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Euro ens look terrible for wave 2. Rain is the predominant theme by far with low pressure nw and over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's kinda like having a better hitter at bat vs a pitcher. So our odds went from 10% to 30% but it still takes multiple at bats to get a hit sometimes. Problem this year was the best hitters we had we're only batting 270 and only got two at bats. Now we have a 300 hitter but he just struck out his first at bad. Yeah, this winter it seems we always have to face the meteorological equivalent of Madison Bumgarner or John Lester whenever our good hitters (pattern) come up!! Maybe this time we can get to face the weak part of the bullpen with runners on base! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 16 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Was that one with the models consistently having it up until 4 days or so before and then a 18z run took it to Chicago? No, it was the one where a sweet northern stream vort was going to track the Midwest and right below us. But every single model run from like 96 hours in was a slight relaxation of confluence until it tracked through pa and dumped on SNE like they actually needed another storm by then. Lol Eta: yes, we're talking about the same storm. I misread. I was thinking chiagco cutter when I first read your post. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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