psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I don't have anything to add on the feb 6 threat. The trough isn't digging enough for it to be a big ticket event right now. Could change but unlikely. But a moderate event is possible. The key is having enough of a southern branch reflection and enough cold wedged in behind the high combined to create the waa/cad combo we need for that nice little thump we do well in those setups. Late feb 2015 would be a best case scenario. Late feb 2007 has an event with some similarities. We can get some snow with a low to our northwest in this type setup if those two factors above break our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 CMC looked to be in line with last night's GEPS, which was not very exciting. We'll see how the 12z run looks soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I know I have nothing scientific to add, but I have noticed that the models frequently show a storm (or at least hints of a storm) 10 days out, only to lose them in the mid range and sometimes they come back in the short range. For example, the clipper we had today was there in the fantasy period and came and went frequently, but did turn out to be a 1-3 inch snow for much of the area. I remember seeing something about Feb 1st and 3rd in addition to Feb 5-6. Now it looks like there is an even better signal around Feb 10-11th. Should I give up on anything the rest of this week and look forward to the next 10 day fantasy, or is there still potential in the short term? Thank you all for sharing your expertise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I'll PBP the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Snow starts around 15z on Sunday. CAD signal not quite as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Temps at 18z mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Looks mostly wide right. Temps low 30s at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Yeah...Euro is kind of wimpy for Sunday. Like 0.10 - 0.15 for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Hey, at least it came around closer to the GFS than vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Yeah...Euro is kind of wimpy for Sunday. Like 0.10 - 0.15 for DC yea...terrible run. How come its only consistent when it dosent show snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 What was trend from 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Heh, I thought the euro run was great for trends. It lost the sub 1k low crossing the lakes. Definitely a cave towards the gfs. Which is the only way we're getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Day 10-15 looks pretty good. Lol one note about the long range. The day 9 storm is actually a bit of a new development within what was a window that should be day 10-12 now. There is still a storm in that window the guidance is now just picking up on the specifics and there are multiple systems within the 9-15 day period. Maybe as many as 3 in a wave train. How they play off one another will determine our fate. Idealy we want one of these to be traversing the 50/50 region as the next approaches to set up a really good look. Lots of waves in an amplified trough over us with some nice reds over Greenland ain't a bad place to start though. We should continue to get some weenie runs if that look holds. After casually looking over the 500's, which I thought had improved overall, I was somewhat surprised to see the snowfall means had dropped through the 15 day period. 1'st storm had a touch better look with dig and yet the snowfall mean dropped. The second event had some good aspects as well as negative, so basically a wash, and yet they dropped. Has left me somewhat perplexed but don't feel the urge to try to reason it out at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: What was trend from 00z? better but 00z was atrocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ji said: yea...terrible run. How come its only consistent when it dosent show snow It shows more snow for my yard than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, I thought the euro run was great for trends. It lost the sub 1k low crossing the lakes. Definitely a cave towards the gfs. Which is the only way we're getting snow. they will probably meet in the middle and it be 1-3/2-4 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: they will probably meet in the middle and it be 1-3/2-4 event which is 6-8 times what many have seen this year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 well the good thing is that the euro at day 8/9 looks terrible which means it will probably change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 darn shame day 8 shows no cold air over us with the next trough approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Nice overunning rain event setting up for d9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: they will probably meet in the middle and it be 1-3/2-4 event Which we will all take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Nice overunning rain event setting up for d9-10. Well at least we won't have to build up false hope for that one! (Hopefully the period after will yield some results...You can only miss so many times, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 ECM is only 20F warmer day 8 than it's 0z run...no biggie eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ji said: well the good thing is that the euro at day 8/9 looks terrible which means it will probably change HP is in a good place. but storm gets too deep west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nice overunning rain event setting up for d9-10. it'll set up the next event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Crappy run. I'm tossing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 this new pattern change is snowstorms missing us to our south followed by a big rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Some fairly noticeable changes at 500's from the 00Z start showing up around the first storm and then by the second they are somewhat significant. Let's see what the EPS says before we get hung up on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Maybe I'm feeling a little cocky with the ground-whitening squall that just went through, but I have to admit that the day 10 500mb map is very encouraging to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 How are the day 12, 15, 27, and 45 storms looking? Think Sunday might be a decent event. At least it's in this century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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