February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[PaEasternWX]

I feel like when the GEFS has a snow signal of at least 6 inches, with 12 of them getting decent snow at least 4-5 inches there is definitely a signal showing  up.

Also the Bering Sea rule makes me think this threat could be real. Apparently the Bering Sea Rule had pretty impressive correlation for the January 7th storm that went south of us.

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

You can't do that....only the White House.

 Bravo. 

[kurtstack]

The GEFS has been pretty consistent run to run and even got slightly better this run with more snowy members and several big hits.  The op is obviously all over the place run to run, which is to be expected at this range.  All in all we havent lost our decent signal for the 2/6-2/10 window and the details will become clearer over the next week regarding the shortwaves.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

:nut: 

[Bob Chill]

Not to be a deb but the gefs has shown d10-15 look like that multiple times this year at various periods. Start getting something inside of d10 with random op support and then we can get all giddy. 

[bigtenfan]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Not to be a deb but the gefs has shown d10-15 look like that multiple times this year at various periods. Start getting something inside of d10 with random op support and then we can get all giddy. 

Could not agree more. It seems like all winter the "pot of gold" has always been at the end of the rainbow and the end of the rainbow is always 10-15 days away

[kurtstack]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Not to be a deb but the gefs has shown d10-15 look like that multiple times this year at various periods. Start getting something inside of d10 with random op support and then we can get all giddy. 

Agreed.  I cant speak for anybody else but I am certainly not giddy at this point but given what we have had to look at the last 30 days - no threats in any model range - this is a sight for sore eyes.  I probably wouldnt feel giddy until its inside 5 days - and with this one we may be fighting the little nuances along i-95 right up until 24 hours - if it even makes it that far.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Just enjoying it before it vanishes right before our eyes! 

[PaEasternWX]

So next run is 00z. If it is still there in lets see.... 18-24 runs or so, then we can start talking

[BristowWx]

22 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

:nut: 

e4 or e16 please.  Let's keep this party going.  Getting used to the pain.

[PaEasternWX]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

e4 or e16 please.  Let's keep this party going.  Getting used to the pain.

what about e1

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not to be a deb but the gefs has shown d10-15 look like that multiple times this year at various periods. Start getting something inside of d10 with random op support and then we can get all giddy. 

And the said fact is that awful winters in the past have all played that game. He!!, even 01/02 was pulling that garbage. Those old enough may recall how often Bastardi used the term "vodka cold" to describe what the models in the 10-15 day range kept showing. He sorta retired that reference after that winter.

[PaEasternWX]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

And the said fact is that awful winters in the past have all played that game. He!!, even 01/02 was pulling that garbage. Those old enough may recall how often Bastardi used the term "vodka cold" to describe what the models in the 10-15 day range was showing. He sorta retired that reference after that winter.

Wasent he working for accuweather back then lol.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said:

what about e1

Too ambitious.  Wishing for snow has got me nowhere.  I pulling a George Costanza.  Everything opposite.

[kurtstack]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And the said fact is that awful winters in the past have all played that game. He!!, even 01/02 was pulling that garbage. Those old enough may recall how often Bastardi used the term "vodka cold" to describe what the models in the 10-15 day range was showing. He sorta retired that reference after that winter.

Well to be fair i dont think we had more than two windows - 1 in december and 1 in january that actually looked good at this range  - other than that we haven't even had a football to be pulled away from us.  

[Maestrobjwa]

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not to be a deb but the gefs has shown d10-15 look like that multiple times this year at various periods. Start getting something inside of d10 with random op support and then we can get all giddy. 

Seems to be the story so far. I mean, all Winter (at least for the long range) it's been Lucy in the Sky with Footballs....geez. Anything to suggest it could stick this time? (And what exactly has been making things go "poof" after popping up briefly?)

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Wasent he working for accuweather back then lol.

He worked for Accuwx from 1978 or 1979 until the start of Wxbell a few years ago. 

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Not to be a deb but the gefs has shown d10-15 look like that multiple times this year at various periods. Start getting something inside of d10 with random op support and then we can get all giddy. 

This is why I posted a couple of days ago that model maps should not be available to the public past 5 days.  It just gives us ulcers.

[WinterWxLuvr]

11 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

This is why I posted a couple of days ago that model maps should not be available to the public past 5 days.  It just gives us ulcers.

Nothing says you have to look at them.

[PaEasternWX]

I can't believe I am already staying up for the GFS.

[PaEasternWX]

Well guys this threat may be over. Usually when models start to show a cutter they don't stop.

[ATreglown]

Well, it is showing something not good in the 10 days out, which it normally shows a good pattern at this range which never seems to happen, so maybe a little reverse thinking may be a good thing?

 

[ATreglown]

Actually, long range, I have seen very inaccurate. It seems to me the best range here lately is the 5-7 day. 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

Looking at the 00Z GFS and GEFS runs shows some promise in the shorter term. Sunday night into Monday we have some decent energy @ 5oo mb's rounding the base of a shortwave embedded within the broader trough around the VA/NC line.  700's for our general area region are close to saturation if not saturated but looking at the surface relative humidity suggests the best possibilities for seeing snow would be southern/central VA through the tidewater of extreme southern MD which falls in line with the vort max passage. IF the GFS/GEFS is correct AND temps cooperate I would think we could see a swath of light accumulating snow through this region. GEFS snowfall maps support this somewhat with roughly half the members showing a swath of snow (for the most part light in nature) through our region though they do favor our southern areas.  

The following shortwave for the Wed/Wed night time frame is still a no go for the region and at this point would favor central PA and north but there has been some improvement. We are seeing better dig as well as a somewhat better overall look with this feature. Plenty of time to see this feature trend in our favor but at this point would think those around the PA/MD line have the best chances.

[showmethesnow]

After looking over the 00Z GEFS I would say it made a big step towards showing potential in the longer range (Day 12-16). 12Z was showing a broad flat trough without much dig through this period, which though it had some possibilities, probably argued that anything meaningful would be to our north.  00Z has now moved towards two distinct pulses within that trough, one centered at day 11 1/2 and the other at day 14 1/2 that actually show more promise overall for our region. Haven't looked at the individual members with the 12Z run but I would not be surprised if they for the most part did show a two wave scenario but timing issues smoothed the mean out giving us the broad flat trough. If this is indeed the case I would not be surprised to see in future runs a digging deeper and sharpening of the first impulse, if not both, as the timing issues between these two get resolved. Which would be a good thing.

Edit: For what it is worth the GEFS mean snowfall do show decent upticks with both time periods.

[showmethesnow]

The EPS looks as if it may be agreeing with the GEFS in regards to the first flexing of the trough around day 11-12. Though the 12Z run was somewhat muted the 00Z run has a much more distinct feature shown. After this initial impulse the EPS reverts to a broad flat trough once again with maybe the very slightest hints of a follow up. With the greater number of ensemble members present within the ESP you generally have more smoothing of the features in the longer range then you do with the GEFS so to not see this second feature yet is really not that surprising. 

EPS snowfall means have a very noticeable uptick centered around the first impulse. We are also seeing a somewhat decent uptick around where the second possible trough flexing would occur.

[PaEasternWX]

Wow euro is close to something good for the storm around 150-160 hours out. Lets focus on that one for now before we focus on the Feb 6th one.

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Wow euro is close to something good for the storm around 150-160 hours out. Lets focus on that one for now before we focus on the Feb 6th one.

Whatever someone focuses on won't change the outcome. I agree it's worth watching but I'm still going to pay attention to the pattern as a whole and every possible threat. Some people can multi task. 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Wow euro is close to something good for the storm around 150-160 hours out. Lets focus on that one for now before we focus on the Feb 6th one.

Really nothing to focus on in that time period at this time except for maybe some light snow up towards PA. The whole setup argues against anything somewhat meaningful for the general region. Of course things can and do change. so there is that. But we would need to see some drastic changes at the surface and 500mb's to make it work for more then a very light accumulation for the general region.

[PaEasternWX]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Whatever someone focuses on won't change the outcome. I agree it's worth watching but I'm still going to pay attention to the pattern as a whole and every possible threat. Some people can multi task. 

Multi tasking is mentally impossible. Look it up.

Anyways back to the task at hand, it looks like 6z gfs albeit rain did up the potential for the storm day 11. A bombing inland runner it looks like.