mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 hmmm....maybe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Not bad for the day 9 thing. It is a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Big changes on the gfs for whatever wave 2 is going to end up being. I'll stick with wave 1. lol I'll take both followed by pd3 once the strat warm and mjo phase 8/1 kick in then a 30" wet snow paste bomb in march as it all breaks down then 70 3 days later! I'm going full 1958 greedy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said: Not bad for the day 9 thing. It is a close call. Especially for you 150 miles to my northeast. I get 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I am not complaining I get 1-2 inches on that run. Just now, Deck Pic said: Especially for you 150 miles to my northeast. I get 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are lots of conflicting signals right now. Qbo, strat warm, soi, pacific sst, mjo (when it gets out of cod early then good later). Just to name a few. They are all arguing different effects and it's probably why the models are jumpy right now long range. The qbo can be overcome but it's in uncharted territory so can this qbo be overcome is the pertinent question. I don't know. Our best hope would be for the effects of what is a pretty healthy strat warm (thanks bob) to tag team with the mjo around feb 12+ and override other hostile signals. Good points! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 this is a pretty weenie run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Any trend from the euro backing off on the NS low will make me feel better for wave 1. Having that kind of spacing (even as shown on the gfs) at this lead is a red flag. Maybe the ns wave can go poof and we can score a good ole fashioned all snow overrunning event. Didn't we used to get those around here? I can't remember. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ji said: this is a pretty weenie run so far Hopefully days 14-16 have something good. Truly weenie runs usually have a HECS on day 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Day 9 Progress!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Another solid GFS run in the books. And it looks like it's building the -NAO toward the end of it. Let's keep this wintery period rockin' through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Any trend from the euro backing off on the NS low will make me feel better for wave 1. Having that kind of spacing (even as shown on the gfs) at this lead is a red flag. Maybe the ns wave can go poof and we can score a good ole fashioned all snow overrunning event. Didn't we used to get those around here? I can't remember. lol I hate arguing with people's "memory" but we had this debate years ago and the truth is not really. Most of our 3-6" or 4-8" snows had some mix. Just as a kid we tended to focus on the 5" on the ground not the light rain or drizzle that came after. Then sometimes we did get a 3-5" event but were on the fringe of something better (like Jan 2005) so now knowing we missed a big snow we feel let down instead of as a kid we simply saw 4" of snow and were happy. I think knowing more of what's actually going on now biases our perception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: I hate arguing with people's "memory" but we had this debate years ago and the truth is not really. Most of our 3-6" or 4-8" snows had some mix. Just as a kid we tended to focus on the 5" on the ground not the light rain or drizzle that came after. Then sometimes we did get a 3-5" event but were on the fringe of something better (like Jan 2005) so now knowing we missed a big snow we feel let down instead of as a kid we simply saw 4" of snow and were happy. I think knowing more of what's actually going on now biases our perception. I remember quite a bit of our medium-sized type events ending with a period of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 CMC is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I hate arguing with people's "memory" but we had this debate years ago and the truth is not really. Most of our 3-6" or 4-8" snows had some mix. Just as a kid we tended to focus on the 5" on the ground not the light rain or drizzle that came after. Then sometimes we did get a 3-5" event but were on the fringe of something better (like Jan 2005) so now knowing we missed a big snow we feel let down instead of as a kid we simply saw 4" of snow and were happy. I think knowing more of what's actually going on now biases our perception. I was thinking more along the lines of the smaller easy on the nerves 1-3/2-4 kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I was thinking more along the lines of the smaller easy on the nerves 1-3/2-4 kind of stuff. Today almost counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, eurojosh said: CMC is a disaster. At this point how is 2-4 for wave 1 a disaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, eurojosh said: CMC is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: At this point how is 2-4 for wave 1 a disaster? That's the 00Z. Check the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, eurojosh said: That's the 00Z. Check the 12Z. It's still a 2-3" event. It's not like we're within 72 hrs. I'm not that worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, eurojosh said: CMC is a disaster. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 32 minutes ago, Ji said: no. ..what are you looking at? Thursday night. It's close to a little light snow for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 CMC was in the GFS camp. If you want to talk disasters then let's discuss the 0z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, eurojosh said: CMC is a disaster. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, eurojosh said: CMC is a disaster. 16 minutes ago, MD Snow said: At this point how is 2-4 for wave 1 a disaster? 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 The only GFS panel that matters on this run. Shame it is still sticking with this year's theme of more south and east of us, but I'd take this in a heart beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Sadly, Ukie doesn't seem to look like the GFS, at least on the 144hr map I looked at. Basically no surface low. Edit: http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 GEFS doesn't look very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 24 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said: GEFS doesn't look very good Day 10-15 looks pretty good. Lol one note about the long range. The day 9 storm is actually a bit of a new development within what was a window that should be day 10-12 now. There is still a storm in that window the guidance is now just picking up on the specifics and there are multiple systems within the 9-15 day period. Maybe as many as 3 in a wave train. How they play off one another will determine our fate. Idealy we want one of these to be traversing the 50/50 region as the next approaches to set up a really good look. Lots of waves in an amplified trough over us with some nice reds over Greenland ain't a bad place to start though. We should continue to get some weenie runs if that look holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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