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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Big changes on the gfs for whatever wave 2 is going to end up being. I'll stick with wave 1. lol

I'll take both followed by pd3 once the strat warm and mjo phase 8/1 kick in then a 30" wet snow paste bomb in march as it all breaks down then 70 3 days later!  I'm going full 1958 greedy here. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are lots of conflicting signals right now. Qbo, strat warm, soi, pacific sst, mjo (when it gets out of cod early then good later). Just to name a few. They are all arguing different effects and it's probably why the models are jumpy right now long range. The qbo can be overcome but it's in uncharted territory so can this qbo be overcome is the pertinent question. I don't know. Our best hope would be for the effects of what is a pretty healthy strat warm (thanks bob) to tag team with the mjo around feb 12+ and override other hostile signals. 

Good points!

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Any trend from the euro backing off on the NS low will make me feel better for wave 1. Having that kind of spacing (even as shown on the gfs) at this lead is a red flag. Maybe the ns wave can go poof and we can score a good ole fashioned all snow overrunning event. Didn't we used to get those around here? I can't remember. lol

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Any trend from the euro backing off on the NS low will make me feel better for wave 1. Having that kind of spacing (even as shown on the gfs) at this lead is a red flag. Maybe the ns wave can go poof and we can score a good ole fashioned all snow overrunning event. Didn't we used to get those around here? I can't remember. lol

I hate arguing with people's "memory" but we had this debate years ago and the truth is not really. Most of our 3-6" or 4-8" snows had some mix. Just as a kid we tended to focus on the 5" on the ground not the light rain or drizzle that came after.  Then sometimes we did get a 3-5" event but were on the fringe of something better (like Jan 2005) so now knowing we missed a big snow we feel let down instead of as a kid we simply saw 4" of snow and were happy.  I think knowing more of what's actually going on now biases our perception. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I hate arguing with people's "memory" but we had this debate years ago and the truth is not really. Most of our 3-6" or 4-8" snows had some mix. Just as a kid we tended to focus on the 5" on the ground not the light rain or drizzle that came after.  Then sometimes we did get a 3-5" event but were on the fringe of something better (like Jan 2005) so now knowing we missed a big snow we feel let down instead of as a kid we simply saw 4" of snow and were happy.  I think knowing more of what's actually going on now biases our perception. 

I remember quite a bit of our medium-sized type events ending with a period of sleet.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I hate arguing with people's "memory" but we had this debate years ago and the truth is not really. Most of our 3-6" or 4-8" snows had some mix. Just as a kid we tended to focus on the 5" on the ground not the light rain or drizzle that came after.  Then sometimes we did get a 3-5" event but were on the fringe of something better (like Jan 2005) so now knowing we missed a big snow we feel let down instead of as a kid we simply saw 4" of snow and were happy.  I think knowing more of what's actually going on now biases our perception. 

I was thinking more along the lines of the smaller easy on the nerves 1-3/2-4 kind of stuff. 

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24 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said:

GEFS doesn't look very good 

Day 10-15 looks pretty good. Lol

IMG_0489.PNG

one note about the long range.  The day 9 storm is actually a bit of a new development within what was a window that should be day 10-12 now. There is still a storm in that window the guidance is now just picking up on the specifics and there are multiple systems within the 9-15 day period. Maybe as many as 3 in a wave train.  How they play off one another will determine our fate. Idealy we want one of these to be traversing the 50/50 region as the next approaches to set up a really good look.  Lots of waves in an amplified trough over us with some nice reds over Greenland ain't a bad place to start though. We should continue to get some weenie runs if that look holds. 

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