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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

      Here's the thing. Every time this winter that there has been talk of a decent storm and I have posted the ensemble mean to support that the ensembles don't support a snow storm for us, I've had similar responses regarding the individual members. Yet, no storm. I think the whole process is a little simpler than you. Do the ensembles support a big storm and, if so, what kind....rain, mixed, or snow? Right now, the ensembles support a big storm, but with an ensemble snow mean of 1.5", that's pretty paltry. Hence, the ensembles currently support either a mixed, or mainly rain storm for us. It really is that simple. With so many ensemble members, you will always find some that support snow. But the mean does not, and by using the ensembles in this manner as I suggest, there will be far less false hopes imho.

Of course one of the times it didn't snow was because the track shifted so far south it missed us and slammed the beaches. I remember around day 10 before that early Jan storm this same phenomenon. But I'm not discounting the point there is a signal for it to cut. But the coastal camp is large enough not to throw it out either. We're talking 18 members that deliver decent snow from the second storm. Add in several that go south or ots and it's about a 50/50 split between cutters and coastal.  The trend favors having temp issues at this time though. 

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14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That's the ticket.  The only one I'm looking at is the weekend deal.  This "wave after the next wave after the next" is for the birds.

I'm not ignoring the feb 6 threat. That's our next best chance. Just not ignoring what comes after either. I love the analysis part so if the pattern gives me two things to look at that's twice as good. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not ignoring the feb 6 threat. That's our next best chance. Just not ignoring what comes after either. I love the analysis part so if the pattern gives me two things to look at that's twice as good. 

I have nothing against what you're doing.  In fact, I appreciate it...this is a weather board after all and we should talk about threats.  All I'm saying is, for me personally, I'm going to pull for wave 1 and anything after that is gravy.  

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This thread suffers both from vertigo (makes my head spin) and bipolar disorder.  We usually don't do well around here with those disorders.  Unlike other areas of the country, we don't seem to luck into many good weather situations.  It seems we need a little more stability in order for events to actually occur.  Here's to some Dramamine and Lithium to stabilize things around here.  Let's start with the upcoming weekend.

 

MDstorm

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Perhaps you should just wait until it's done.

We should not look ahead and miss things like Thursday.  The gfs is close to a small event, especially east.

Yes, and the more amplified that little NS vort gets after exiting the coast, the better hp in place for the next whatever happens. 

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35 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have nothing against what you're doing.  In fact, I appreciate it...this is a weather board after all and we should talk about threats.  All I'm saying is, for me personally, I'm going to pull for wave 1 and anything after that is gravy.  

Likewise I have no issues with your posts. I also like your humor. But there are some who come in here everyday to do nothing but complain that long range stuff isn't going to happen. As if we don't know long range forecasting is low probability. It's annoying because it's the long range thread, what should we talk about here lol. It's also ironic to spend time in a thread about the long range posting incessantly about long range being a waste of time. 

 

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2 hours ago, frd said:

Well, I believe a Met did a look back on Winters where the QBO was strongly Westerly like this winter and those winters not great for snow .

I know the met Ender, did some nice research on the QBO where he focused on phase change during the winter and how that is bad for snow. 

As for your question about the QBO over-riding the precursors to a SSW event , I read this morning from some folks who know a great deal more about it then me,  that the Westerly QBO could be over come should these precursors actually move forward in time and affect the PV as they think they will.  

 

 

 

 

There are lots of conflicting signals right now. Qbo, strat warm, soi, pacific sst, mjo (when it gets out of cod early then good later). Just to name a few. They are all arguing different effects and it's probably why the models are jumpy right now long range. The qbo can be overcome but it's in uncharted territory so can this qbo be overcome is the pertinent question. I don't know. Our best hope would be for the effects of what is a pretty healthy strat warm (thanks bob) to tag team with the mjo around feb 12+ and override other hostile signals. 

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