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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sucks that the ns stream energy stretches things out. Make the whole thing a weak/disorganized shield instead of a consolidated system. 

Trailing vort looks like the good panels we had for the first one a few days ago. lol. This is definitely the year of the d10 snow storm. Other crappy years never even teased us. This year is torcher. 

That second system has always had a better chance to amplify. The first has always been more of an overrunning driven event with the exception of a couple runs that teased with a perfect phase job. But it has way less room to dig and amp then the one on its heels. The key to trend yet is to get the first system to pull up and help hold enough confluence ahead of the next. Almost everything pops a good storm in the day 10-13 but some are rain if the first system washes out and the war redevelops. 

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54 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Anyone see that low on the GFS enter in Montana at 252 and leave at 300ish in South Carolina? Just straight up southeast moving low the whole time.

sometimes this happens behind miller a systems a northern piece of energy dives into the deep trough.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Until when? Will that also disappear on the models 24 hours from now? (Sorry, my cynicism is getting the better of me, lol) Can't trust anything anymore! But we shall see...

middle of the week, then the +/- storm ratio will be doubled

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29 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

00z gfs is better than 18z. Step in right direction. Just need the cold to trend more. It will be interesting to see if the euro caves to the gfs. Currently, the euro isn't even close to gfs solution. Lol. 

I don't want to say it, but 0z GooFS cuts west pretty badly.  Good thing it's a week away op run.

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4 hours ago, PaEasternWX said:

00z gfs is better than 18z. Step in right direction. Just need the cold to trend more. It will be interesting to see if the euro caves to the gfs. Currently, the euro isn't even close to gfs solution. Lol. 

Looks like a 2/4 inch thump before we switch to rain on 00z GFS at hours 159-168... the snow line isn't far away though (retreats to western Maryland) but this needs to adjust east by 50/100 miles over the next week to really help and become a better storm. I worry it is more likely to continue to push west.

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38 minutes ago, Joshfsu123 said:

Looks like a 2/4 inch thump before we switch to rain on 00z GFS at hours 159-168... the snow line isn't far away though (retreats to western Maryland) but this needs to adjust east by 50/100 miles over the next week to really help and become a better storm. I worry it is more likely to continue to push west.

The op has been converging on this cut west idea.  It seems when that happens it's tough to break it.  

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

No EURO banter. Not a good sign. Weird evolution to the storm nine days away. We're on the roller coastal again. At least now the atmosphere knows it can snow in NOVA now.

If you are talking the follow up storm that is far from the case. Even stronger signal for a significant storm in that time frame.

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12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

The op has been converging on this cut west idea.  It seems when that happens it's tough to break it.  

With the setup we have now and have had for a couple of days the best case scenario is to see that low weak, at least initially. Any strengthening and amplification to it we would need to see happen after it is almost due south of out region. Otherwise we will most likely see it cut. 

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EPS is still luke warm to our storm for next weekend. If you squint real hard you can maybe see a slight improvement. Snowfall means through that period might have gone up a smidgen as well. 

The big story with the EPS is the follow up storm. The signal it is showing for a significant storm is even stronger then the 12Z and that was impressive. Can't recall the EPS showing such a strong signal at 10+ days in recent memory. As far as details on snow/no snow, evolution, track etc... that is still some what muddy when just looking at the means and I haven't yet had a chance to look at the individual members to see how they are playing out. 

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For those curious, the snowfall means on the EPS ticked up a touch through the period of the follow up storm. 12Z had roughly an inch through that period whereas the 00Z now shows an inch and a half. I am not overly concerned with the paltry number at this point and will probably just focus on seeing a steady increase through subsequent runs. There is plenty of potential for our region as evidenced by a handful of big hitters within the members as well as quite a few moderate events as well. Just think the low snowfall means we see now is an indication that many options are on the table at this point. We will probably get a better handle on the possibilities once the models start resolving the first storm which will have a huge impact on the follow up.

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8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For those curious, the snowfall means on the EPS ticked up a touch through the period of the follow up storm. 12Z had roughly an inch through that period whereas the 00Z now shows an inch and a half. I am not overly concerned with the paltry number at this point and will probably just focus on seeing a steady increase through subsequent runs. There is plenty of potential for our region as evidenced by a handful of big hitters within the members as well as quite a few moderate events as well. Just think the low snowfall means we see now is an indication that many options are on the table at this point. We will probably get a better handle on the possibilities once the models start resolving the first storm which will have a huge impact on the follow up.

What day are you talking? 11?

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13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The bad news is the 06Z strengthens our first low (day 6-7) too soon and pulls it to our west. The good news is that the High running off the coast is able to lock in the cold somewhat and we get a 6 to 10 inch snowfall through the metropolitan region per weatherbell. 

I'd take that GFS solution and run with it, 850s barely get above freezing.   Thump --> dryslot --> cold

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

EPS is still luke warm to our storm for next weekend. If you squint real hard you can maybe see a slight improvement. Snowfall means through that period might have gone up a smidgen as well. 

The big story with the EPS is the follow up storm. The signal it is showing for a significant storm is even stronger then the 12Z and that was impressive. Can't recall the EPS showing such a strong signal at 10+ days in recent memory. As far as details on snow/no snow, evolution, track etc... that is still some what muddy when just looking at the means and I haven't yet had a chance to look at the individual members to see how they are playing out. 

It's a big storm signal for sure. My one concern for snow now that it's getting closer and some basic pattern signals are being hinted at would be the WAR. The recent runs are swinging the day 7 storm out and not really amplifying it much and it's long gone from the 50/60 space by day 10. Then they pop the dreaded war which vacates the cold ahead of the system. That then enhances the chances of an inland track too. Get cold in front and it's likely to jump to the coast where the baroclinoc zone will be. It's still too far out to worry much about details. The Jan 22 storm last year looked to have temp issues at day 10. The pattern across Canada is good enough leading in to think it cools trend better in that regard. 

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