mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Even a stronger signal for a significant storm around day 11 on the EPS. Wouldn't know it looking at this day 10 eps 850/slp map, unless you mean a rain storm for us. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2017012912&fh=240&xpos=10&ypos=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Wouldn't know it looking at this day 10 eps 850/slp map, unless you mean a rain storm for us. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2017012912&fh=240&xpos=10&ypos=20 Try your map for the frame I posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Wouldn't know it looking at this day 10 eps 840/slp map, unless you mean a rain storm for us. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2017012912&fh=240&xpos=10&ypos=20 Just talking storm in general details to be worked out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Try your map for the frame I posted above. I saw that. The day 8 threat does look much better than the operational. But if there's a day 11 threat on the eps, that's quite a change from day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It's coming don't rush it. That front runner didn't have enough to get it done. But... take this journey with me. Look at the energy ejecting out of the west over the tx panhandle. High coming across to the north. Stj energy sitting in the gulf waiting to be picked up. That's the storm day 12. The one the ensembles are all over. Yea it's forever out there but the 12z euro leaves us in a loaded setup day 10. Can we really trust any good look we see LR anymore? I mean every single one evaporates? What makes this LR any more reliable? Not even the overall trends on the LR have had any kind of consistency! Everyday it looks dramatically different, it seems like, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: max p http://www.weather.gov/images/lwx/winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Not trying to be a thread nazi but I believe this is the wrong thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Not trying to be a thread nazi but I believe this is the wrong thread lol I removed it before you could jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Wouldn't know it looking at this day 10 eps 840/slp map, unless you mean a rain storm for us. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2017012912&fh=240&xpos=10&ypos=20 The progression you see after 240 hrs drives that low through our region and then looks to set up a strong low off the Del/Jersey coasts then semi stalls it for roughly a day and a half +. My impression is we may be talking a Miller B setup. Wish I could show the map with the individual ensemble members because it is quite impressive the number that buy into this general solution for a day 11 threat. Also the mean pressures are somewhat impressive as well with such a long lead. As far as snow/no snow? Who knows but there are definitely possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The progression you see after 240 hrs drives that low through our region and then looks to set up a strong low off the Del/Jersey coasts then semi stalls it for roughly a day and a half +. My impression is we may be talking a Miller B setup. Wish I could show the map with the individual ensemble members because it is quite impressive the number that buy into this general solution for a day 11 threat. Also the mean pressures are somewhat impressive as well with such a long lead. As far as snow/no snow? Who knows but there are definitely possibilities. Agreed. Look at the low positions for that window. Quite a few right where you'd want them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Agreed. Look at the low positions for that window. Quite a few right where you'd want them. Maybe there will be those who disagree with me but this in my mind is a great look at 500's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Maybe there will be those who disagree with me but this in my mind is will be a great look at 500's. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Can we really trust any good look we see LR anymore? I mean every single one evaporates? What makes this LR any more reliable? Not even the overall trends on the LR have had any kind of consistency! Everyday it looks dramatically different, it seems like, lol Trust that there is a threat yes. That doesn't mean it hits. A threat might mean we have a 30% chance at a big storm. It usually takes several threats to get one hit. The day 7 threat isn't gone. Still support for something possible there. Possible is the key. It was never a lock. Some guidance has it some says no but the general look of a threat window is there. The specifics have to break right to turn a threat into an actual snowstorm. I know this year sucks but I honestly don't get the notion that the models have been so unreliable. The problem is we haven't had many threats. Only 2. The mid December one that ended up ice. And the January one that missed southeast. Other then that at times models suggested perhaps a better look way out that never materialized but no big busts. This better pattern is already in place. We have several legit threats coming up. The trough looks to go through its greatest amplification around day 11-12 on all the guidance. So there is a threat there. That doesn't mean the models are saying it will snow. Just there is a good window of opportunity. Looking at day 10 output and thinking that has to happen exactly or it's a bust is the wrong way to use the guidance and gives the perception the models suck because their being misused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 29 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Wouldn't know it looking at this day 10 eps 850/slp map, unless you mean a rain storm for us. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2017012912&fh=240&xpos=10&ypos=20 That map is totally off...or wxBell is. WxBell has 850's here at -11c at the same time. WxBell has the 0c line running through the middle of Tennessee and just north of the Va/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 46 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Even a stronger signal for a significant storm around day 11 on the EPS. You know I'm right with you. I started mentioning this window was the best look a couple days ago when the now day 7 storm looked good too. I'm not saying that is over or not a threat. Just looking at all the guidance there is a very strong signal for a major amplication of the trough into the east around day 11 and there should be enough cold around. Those two ingredients make it a good threat window. It's been there for days, it's moving closer in time, and it's trending stronger each day. And yes it's way out but we aren't relying on a new pattern developing this time it's based on a very natural progression of the current pattern (which ain't too bad if we haven't noticed). But until it snows at least a bit we're talking to a pretty jaded and fatalistic audience right now. I totally understand that. But all I can do is analyze the pattern and the recency bias doesn't change the long range look is hella good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That map is totally off...or wxBell is. WxBell has 850's here at -11c at the same time. WxBell has the 0c line running through the middle of Tennessee and just north of the Va/NC border. You sure you guys are looking at the same timeframe? The WxBell EPS Mean 240h 850T map matches the link Mitch posted as far as I can tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Ji your slacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, caviman2201 said: You sure you guys are looking at the same timeframe? The WxBell EPS Mean 240h 850T map matches the link Mitch posted as far as I can tell... Oops. Was Mitch talking eps? I was thinking op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ji your slacking. That progression is exactly what I thought the gfs was heading toward yesterday when we were talking a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You know I'm right with you. I started mentioning this window was the best look a couple days ago when the now day 7 storm looked good too. I'm not saying that is over or not a threat. Just looking at all the guidance there is a very strong signal for a major amplication of the trough into the east around day 11 and there should be enough cold around. Those two ingredients make it a good threat window. It's been there for days, it's moving closer in time, and it's trending stronger each day. And yes it's way out but we aren't relying on a new pattern developing this time it's based on a very natural progression of the current pattern (which ain't too bad if we haven't noticed). But until it snows at least a bit we're talking to a pretty jaded and fatalistic audience right now. I totally understand that. But all I can do is analyze the pattern and the recency bias doesn't change the long range look is hella good. Yeah, you been onto this 2'nd threat for awhile. Remember you mention the possibility when I brought up the thoughts of a second impulse showing up on the ESP even though it was well hidden. Think that was 4 days ago on one of my early morning novels on the late night runs. Started really buying into it over subsequent runs but what really drove it home was some of the reasoning you put forth a couple of days ago. Much of it matched my thoughts but you also had some very valid points that I had never considered. (see I do read you stuff ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That progression is exactly what I thought the gfs was heading toward yesterday when we were talking a big event. ha..yeah, the jma would definitely shut me down,,but alas..it's the jma. Might as well be the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Lets see what the Happy hour gfs shows first. Very similar to 12z so far. Maybe a little bit less ridging. Edit: Kind of have to squint but maybe a little more ridging at hr 141 Trough that comes ashore looks deeper that being hr 126. Northern stream perhaps is a little weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Looks as if gfs might have a nice little event day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 snowing at hr 171. omg gfs looks like it may have been so close to something more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: snowing at hr 171. omg gfs looks like it may have been so close to something more. The real happy hour is exactly a week from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Sucks that the ns stream energy stretches things out. Make the whole thing a weak/disorganized shield instead of a consolidated system. Trailing vort looks like the good panels we had for the first one a few days ago. lol. This is definitely the year of the d10 snow storm. Other crappy years never even teased us. This year is torcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sucks that the ns stream energy stretches things out. Make the whole thing a weak/disorganized shield instead of a consolidated system. Trailing vort looks like the good panels we had for the first one a few days ago. lol. This is definitely the year of the d10 snow storm. Other crappy years never even teased us. This year is torcher. Torture! Don't say torch...PLEASE, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 GFS skims us with the day 10 coastal. Really nice look similar to the Euro but closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Maybe there will be those who disagree with me but this in my mind is a great look at 500's. What kind of jump, if any, in the ensemble mean snowfall results? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 The new 10 day possible scenario on 18z gfs aligns nicely with pattern evolving in a manner that is consistent with many of the items discussed here the past week. Additionally, our bigger and (better) big hits are Miller A's. That would be a pretty classic setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What kind of jump, if any, in the ensemble mean snowfall results? It's pretty muddy but the eps has a cluster of about 10 members that produce during the general time frame. Which is about the same # as the d7'ish threat. Probably the only discouraging thing is that not very many show a big event (6"+) for either. Around 6 or so total. Still seems like the odds of a 2"+ event look ok though. We should have plenty of stuff to keep an eye on over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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