Amped Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 And WTF is going on with the Alaska ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: And WTF is going on with the Alaska ridge? Chinese nuking Alaska because they're pissed at Trump. Nothing to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 19 minutes ago, BTRWx said: What amazes me is the teleconnections magnitudes haven't looked all that favorable. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png I personally feel like one of the issues with this winter (with repspect to snowfall) is our source region for cold (Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec) have had relatively strong positive departures. That makes it pretty hard for any cold to push far enough south. And when it does it has been modified cold which more times then not makes for PType issues for mid-Atlantic. Not to mention the boundry is typically not in an ideal spot for our small-medium events. One positive I see in general is the ridge out west seems to be reloading somewhat through most guidance. That's way better then the tough for first half the winter that was crushing the inter-mountain west with cold/snow in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I may be wrong but is the Euro cooking up a storm for D10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Anyone who comsiders flipping out over an op run past 5 days should look at last nights euro day 7-10 and compare it to today's. Then remember that next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 hr 216 looks intriguing to me...tbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I am liking the look of the 12z EURO at 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, yoda said: I am liking the look of the 12z EURO at 216 ninja-ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Anyone who comsiders flipping out over an op run past 5 days should look at last nights euro day 7-10 and compare it to today's. Then remember that next time. And then add it the enormous difference between models and you have the old shrug emoticon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I may be wrong but is the Euro cooking up a storm for D10? Close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I like the h5 look at 240 on 12z EURO as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Seems like it is always day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I like the h5 look at 240 on 12z EURO as well Cue Lucy with the next day 10 threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Nope It's coming don't rush it. That front runner didn't have enough to get it done. But... take this journey with me. Look at the energy ejecting out of the west over the tx panhandle. High coming across to the north. Stj energy sitting in the gulf waiting to be picked up. That's the storm day 12. The one the ensembles are all over. Yea it's forever out there but the 12z euro leaves us in a loaded setup day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's coming don't rush it. That front runner didn't have enough to get it done. But... take this journey with me. Look at the energy ejecting out of the west over the tx panhandle. High coming across to the north. Stj energy sitting in the gulf waiting to be picked up. That's the storm day 12. The one the ensembles are all over. Yea it's forever out there but the 12z euro leaves us in a loaded setup day 10. the ssw signal! Jb posted the 10mb map for the week following the ssw for the time the surface would respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's coming don't rush it. That front runner didn't have enough to get it done. But... take this journey with me. Look at the energy ejecting out of the west over the tx panhandle. High coming across to the north. Stj energy sitting in the gulf waiting to be picked up. That's the storm day 12. The one the ensembles are all over. Yea it's forever out there but the 12z euro leaves us in a loaded setup day 10. Loaded, but with blanks unless the cold can race in before the storm. Our history is naso good in those situations. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017012900&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=278 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: It's coming don't rush it. That front runner didn't have enough to get it done. But... take this journey with me. Look at the energy ejecting out of the west over the tx panhandle. High coming across to the north. Stj energy sitting in the gulf waiting to be picked up. That's the storm day 12. The one the ensembles are all over. Yea it's forever out there but the 12z euro leaves us in a loaded setup day 10. I just commented on the day 10... AS modeled. That's the key. I'm sure it's modeled solution is entirely possible ... as modeled. I'm sure the gfs solution is plausible as well. Too far out in time. The euro tries to run a little system through here on Wed that the gfs doesn't have. They both have a system to our South on Thurs/Fri. I think I'll wait and see how those shake out first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Loaded, but with blanks unless the cold can race in before the storm. Our history is naso good in those situations. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017012900&fh=240&xpos=114&ypos=129 your link is the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Loaded, but with blanks unless the cold can race in before the storm. Our history is naso good in those situations. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017012900&fh=192&xpos=114&ypos=129 That high and those heights don't support warmth. 850's at day 10 are frigid. Edit: reference the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Loaded, but with blanks unless the cold can race in before the storm. Our history is naso good in those situations. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017012900&fh=240&xpos=114&ypos=129 That's the 00z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: your link is the 0z run Oops. Lol I was wondering what everyone was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I assume it's "what storm?" For super bowl sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I assume it's "what storm?" For super bowl sunday If you hump the euro, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Loaded, but with blanks unless the cold can race in before the storm. Our history is naso good in those situations. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017012900&fh=240&xpos=114&ypos=129 Your looking at the old run. New run is plenty cold day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you hump the euro, yes. No way. I like my models like I like my women and cheese....American...because that's classy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 48 minutes ago, BristowWx said: No way. I like my models like I like my women and cheese....American...because that's classy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Legion of the '10-day' hopefuls. It's always 10 days out ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Legion of the '10-day' hopefuls. It's always 10 days out ... cue the eps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Even a stronger signal for a significant storm around day 11 on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.