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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gfs is more of a tn valley overrunning event than an actual storm.  Vort is sheared pretty good.  

Not that I think shear/suppression on 8 day progs is something to worry about. Hasn't held all year.

The models might be in the process of transitioning from putting the emphasis on that first wave running out from the stj ahead of the northern branch to phasing something in from the northern branch digging in behind. It's sure trending that way at h5.  Way more amped diggier look each run today. That would complicate things some but raise the stakes as well. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I started a thread a couple years ago with met 101 stuff. If someone can find it please bump it. We can add plenty new material but its a good starting point with content iirc

 

54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Since there seems to be interest I'll start a thread later when I have a minute and point out some of these things you and others are asking about on h5 plots. That's really the level you want to look at to understand this. The surface is driven from what's going on above in most cases. Have to look at the steering currents. The surface meso features become important only once you have nailed down the synoptic scale main ideas. 

Ahh yes, thanks both of you--been hoping somebody would make a thread like that since I first started following this forum a few years ago! Now some of these terms won't be sounding like Chinese anymore, lol

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I started a thread a couple years ago with met 101 stuff. If someone can find it please bump it. We can add plenty new material but its a good starting point with content iirc

Great idea I remember that. I'll add more after dinner when I can get on the computer and really dig trough stuff. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think the gfs is flirting with a major system.

Beautiful run at h5. This is day 6. There is a reason things are getting interesting. Look at that blocking over GL. And it develops around day 3 now. 

Then fast foreword to the threat day 8. That trough is digging more and taking on more neg tilt each run. It's trending towards a classic look. And we're not done by along shot the pattern is loaded day 10 for that vort pinwheeling down or if the stj ejects that sw system. Someone sneezes and we could get an east coast bomb in that setup. IMG_0403.PNG

IMG_0404.PNG

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Great idea I remember that. I'll add more after dinner when I can get on the computer and really dig trough stuff. 

I'm not one to post stuff, more lurking and learning, but thanks for all the work you guys do to make it a good learning experience for a weather weenie like me.   I live just outside this forum, but Philly forum is always dead, and people in NYC forum seem to always be fighting about departures from average, so I come here.  Sorry if this is banter, but thanks again for the work you guys do in here

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3 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said:

I'm not one to post stuff, more lurking and learning, but thanks for all the work you guys do to make it a good learning experience for a weather weenie like me.   I live just outside this forum, but Philly forum is always dead, and people in NYC forum seem to always be fighting about departures from average, so I come here.  Sorry if this is banter, but thanks again for the work you guys do in here

Found it! https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/32802-mid-atlantic-met-class-thread/#comment-1392252

 

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You could tell by looking at 500 things were going to be north and a bit warmer at about 120hr.  Am I wrong about the warmer part?  

We always have to worry about something at day 8. And at our latitude warm is usually the greater risk. But if is not were worried about suppression. Or both lol. But it's way too early for that kind of detailed analysis. The general trends are what we're looking at mostly. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Beautiful run at h5. This is day 6. There is a reason things are getting interesting. Look at that blocking over GL. And it develops around day 3 now. 

Then fast foreword to the threat day 8. That trough is digging more and taking on more neg tilt each run. It's trending towards a classic look. And we're not done by along shot the pattern is loaded day 10 for that vort pinwheeling down or if the stj ejects that sw system. Someone sneezes and we could get an east coast bomb in that setup. IMG_0403.PNG

IMG_0404.PNG

Gonna ask a dumb question so shoot me now but what would prevent this from turning really negative and cutting west of us.  It doesn't seem like classic CAD to me and 850s look a bit warmer.  I know we are way out on the op run.  Is it the GL block?

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Beautiful run at h5. This is day 6. There is a reason things are getting interesting. Look at that blocking over GL. And it develops around day 3 now. 

Then fast foreword to the threat day 8. That trough is digging more and taking on more neg tilt each run. It's trending towards a classic look. And we're not done by along shot the pattern is loaded day 10 for that vort pinwheeling down or if the stj ejects that sw system. Someone sneezes and we could get an east coast bomb in that setup. IMG_0403.PNG

IMG_0404.PNG

Glad to see you're thinking along those lines. It really looks close to being a big deal.

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Gonna ask a dumb question so shoot me now but what would prevent this from turning really negative and cutting west of us.  It doesn't seem like classic CAD to me and 850s look a bit warmer.  I know we are way out on the op run.  Is it the GL block?

It could cut, not all blocks guarantee results, but as the system approaches the blocking is displacing everything south. The piece of the PV rotating through Quebec to our north gets blocked in. That creates the confluence that promotes higher pressures in front. It also mutes the ridging then forces the next trough to dig more and not lift to our north. All that helps. On the down side that northern stream wave could be trouble if there was an early phase or if the system gets sheared enough that precip is light and temps become borderline. There is always a fail option lurking. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Glad to see you're thinking along those lines. It really looks close to being a big deal.

I agree as well. Not only is the d8+ deal full of potential, the pattern allows repetitive progressions down the line. 

I also like that one of the more unlikely outcomes would be a track so far west that we get skipped with precip or plain rain. 

Each vort that clears the east coast can potentially reinforce confluence and the area of low heights in far eastern Canada so we can fail with one but still be in the game for any others down the line. Breathing room is something that has basically been non existent so fat. 

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18z gefs isn't very impressive for the d8+ deal. The last 2 gefs runs have backed off a good bit on upside potential. Still a long ways to go but I won't ignore the possibility of a weak system or non event. 

Otoh- another run with a very active and generally very good right through d16 for multiple chances at moving winter out of the complete disaster classification. 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs isn't very impressive for the d8+ deal. The last 2 gefs runs have backed off a good bit on upside potential. Still a long ways to go but I won't ignore the possibility of a weak system or non event. 

Otoh- another run with a very active and generally very good right through d16 for multiple chances at moving winter out of the complete disaster classification. 

Yea the day 8 storm is still there and a real trackable event but the gfs seems unsure what to do with the northern and southern stream interaction and so there are a lot of weak solutions. 

I know someone's going to throw something at me for even bringing up something at that range but hoy cow is the day 10-15 loaded on both the gefs and EPS. And yes it's way out but unlike when we're waiting for the pattern to flip long range that look is set in motion by what's happening right now. It's a natural progression. I give it a bit more credence due to that. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs isn't very impressive for the d8+ deal. The last 2 gefs runs have backed off a good bit on upside potential. Still a long ways to go but I won't ignore the possibility of a weak system or non event. 

Otoh- another run with a very active and generally very good right through d16 for multiple chances at moving winter out of the complete disaster classification. 

Too many ensembles 

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Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Suppression depression

Psuhoffman posted one of those cfs monthly snowfall maps 7-10 days ago and even though it showed decent snow over us, I said my interpretation was that 2 of the 4 maps showed more snow to our south and east noting the storm from early month. Welp, if the gfs is at all close to being correct,  it's looking like the cfs idea was onto something. Big IF, I know,  but it does focus decent snows on every event to our s/e.

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Psuhoffman posted one of those cfs monthly snowfall maps 7-10 days ago and even though it showed decent snow over us, I said my interpretation was that 2 of the 4 maps showed more snow to our south and east noting the storm from early month. Welp, if the gfs is at all close to being correct,  it's looking like the cfs idea was onto something. Big IF, I know,  but it does focus decent snows on every event to our s/e.

Looking at 500mb tells me there are many solutions.  Not saying we will do well but I will take a southern solution any day over cutter.  Once a steak is well done you can't uncook it.  Not worried. 

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