CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nice gefs run. Start to finish. Lots of threats spread out through day 16. Maintains some ridging over GL also. Was just looking at it. I concur. Really nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nice gefs run. Start to finish. Lots of threats spread out through day 16. Maintains some ridging over GL also. This is the period we've been waiting for. It's not perfect or a big noreaster look over the next 2 weeks but we fiiiiinnnnalllly have reinforcing highs sliding by to the north, confluence off and on, and pac shortwaves traversing the conus. It's going to be pretty busy for a few weeks. We can actually fail on something and not have to wait 2-3 weeks before another chance comes along. I would consider hitting 50% of climo a win at this point. I don't think that's too lofty but maybe pushing it a little. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ideally if we want to be greedy the best storms have what we call a banana high. The trough digs into the east and a system comes at us from the south with cold and higher pressure across the north locked in by confluence usually created by blocking over the top. Then as the storm comes up you get the classic look of the high bending around the system or the "banana" look. The most classic example. But most of our snow doesn't come from 20-30" ideal setups. If we had to choose between a high in front or behind take in front. We rarely do well with cold crashing in behind the system. Sometimes with a good h5 pass we can flip and get thumped but more often it's a losing setup. Needs perfect timing, a slow moving system, and plus as the cold advection comes in usually the winds turn to a westerly component which is doensloping off the apps and kills us. We're much better off with a high in front and the system coming into it. That's why getting lower heights to our northeast is a big deal. That tends to create a northerly flow out of Quebec around the h5 low to our northeast and combined with the westerly flow as a system approaches creates confluence. Air streams coming together or merging and that aids in supporting high pressure to our north. That helps hold the cold in longer as a waa starts when a system approaches. Some examples of how we can score with a high out front and a system approaching as ridging comes across the Conus That was a system in feb 2007 that dropped 3-6" across our area despite a low up near Chicago because we had a high in front. Notice there was enough resistance to force the system to develop a triple poimtloe muting the waa surge. that doesn't look like much but it was 4-8" in january 04 from another somewhat similar setup. No two setups are the same so be careful using analogs but they give us a general guide to how similar setups can work. Notice some similarity with the h5 setup below and this setup next week with the ridge trough placement and especially the flow to our northeast. Was that first map from '96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 There is a famous or perhaps infamous met who doesn't like this threat for the MA...and he doesn't reside in VA..as I am reading in SE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: There is a famous or perhaps infamous met who doesn't like this threat for the MA...and he doesn't reside in VA..as I am reading in SE thread Of course they don't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Euro is going to be a fish storm, safe to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Euro is pretty close to a phase job but too much suppression leading in. I'd much prefer to root for less suppression over long leads then the other way around. Especially this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: There is a famous or perhaps infamous met who doesn't like this threat for the MA...and he doesn't reside in VA..as I am reading in SE thread Maybe they like the euro better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Looong time lurker, first time poster. Thought I'd finally hop in. Isn't this a pretty good look for a D9 op, even if it is a suppressed fish storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is pretty close to a phase job but too much suppression leading in. I'd much prefer to root for less suppression over long leads then the other way around. Especially this year. Yeah its decently close. At least this run we get a little something from the ns energy. This is gonna be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Looong time lurker, first time poster. Thought I'd finally hop in. Isn't this a pretty good look for a D9 op, even if it is a suppressed fish storm? It's a good look in the sense of if the ns shortwave on that panel phases with the lead then you have a monster somewhere. They really just miss each other this run. Just another take on the period. We're going to see the full gambit over the next week. I'd be thrilled with a phased bomb even if it means getting hit with a mix during it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 There's another storm around 300 hrs on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Maybe they like the euro better. No, it's still no good for PA and NY, he won't like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a good look in the sense of if the ns shortwave on that panel phases with the lead then you have a monster somewhere. They really just miss each other this run. Just another take on the period. We're going to see the full gambit over the next week. I'd be thrilled with a phased bomb even if it means getting hit with a mix during it. Thanks, Bob. I guess this question goes to anyone but am I getting this right, in non-technical terms: the shortwaves show up on that 500mb anomaly map as wiggles/bends in the longwave pattern. See poorly drawn MSpaint thing. For reference, I'm a social scientist with no hard science background beyond AP Physics more than a decade ago. I'm trying to figure this stuff out on my own, it's fun. No offense taken if I'm dead wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: No, it's still no good for PA and NY, he won't like it Ha, I guess we all keep an eye on our own areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 14 minutes ago, Amped said: There's another storm around 300 hrs on the ensembles. That's the one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: Thanks, Bob. I guess this question goes to anyone but am I getting this right, in non-technical terms: the shortwaves show up on that 500mb anomaly map as wiggles/bends in the longwave pattern. See poorly drawn MSpaint thing. For reference, I'm a social scientist with no hard science background beyond AP Physics more than a decade ago. I'm trying to figure this stuff out on my own, it's fun. No offense taken if I'm dead wrong You got it. If the lead didn't get suppressed and pushed se off the coast and started climbing instead, the two waves would phase and probably close off. Bombs away. Otoh- we'd be just fine with the lead simply climbing and not even having the trailing vort in the picture. We don't need a phase to have a fine event. But who doesn't like a big closed off bomb overhead? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: @psuhoffmanI have a similar thank you, as I am a classical musician (not far removed from my undergrad degree) who also is learning a lot from your posts and others here as well. (Who says the arts and meteorology can't go together? In fact, weather inspires art and music!) Good to learn how things work in the atmosphere to form my favorite type of precipitation! Glad to have more people interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Since this is the thread pinned, this '96 correlation makes me a lot more excited about next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: This is the period we've been waiting for. It's not perfect or a big noreaster look over the next 2 weeks but we fiiiiinnnnalllly have reinforcing highs sliding by to the north, confluence off and on, and pac shortwaves traversing the conus. It's going to be pretty busy for a few weeks. We can actually fail on something and not have to wait 2-3 weeks before another chance comes along. I would consider hitting 50% of climo a win at this point. I don't think that's too lofty but maybe pushing it a little. Lol Right now it looks like a solid 7 pattern. Not like feb 2010 or anything but light years better then anything we've had since the blizzard. If the on again off again blocking flexes just a bit in the long range it becomes an 8/9 easy. This is now only 72 hours. Needless to say we finally do get some help up near Greenland. that sets everything in motion after. That's a pretty good "it should snow soon" look right there. Everyone keeps bringing up the strat but it's hard to quantify its effects. Perhaps this decent look up too is the result and it's muted by the qbo but at least we're getting some help. Just conjecture. There are some signs the mjo might kick in our favor later in feb plus a PV split and displacement could aid more blocking. I think there is hope now this might reload not break down after week two but we have some good times before then so no reason to worry too much either way. Finally I could see this leading to a monster a few days later. If you loop the vortex in Canada is diving in as it pinwheels around the one rotating up the Atlantic side. And the GL ridging is relaxing but looks up hang in somewhat or possibly reload. Definitely can see how that diving in ends up an east coast bomb day 13-15. See what I see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 One last thing regarding the euro being south. Even the early Jan system came north late. But it trended way too south first. By the time it started the north bleed the axis of snow was Atlanta to the outer banks. That's no good. Having a model blast along the NC VA border day 8 is fine. If we get to day 4 and the consensus is Raleigh again then we might have to worry about suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Right now it looks like a solid 7 pattern. Not like feb 2010 or anything but light years better then anything we've had since the blizzard. If the on again off again blocking flexes just a bit in the long range it becomes an 8/9 easy. This is now only 72 hours. Needless to say we finally do get some help up near Greenland. that sets everything in motion after. That's a pretty good "it should snow soon" look right there. Everyone keeps bringing up the strat but it's hard to quantify its effects. Perhaps this decent look up too is the result and it's muted by the qbo but at least we're getting some help. Just conjecture. There are some signs the mjo might kick in our favor later in feb plus a PV split and displacement could aid more blocking. I think there is hope now this might reload not break down after week two but we have some good times before then so no reason to worry too much either way. Finally I could see this leading to a monster a few days later. If you loop the vortex in Canada is diving in as it pinwheels around the one rotating up the Atlantic side. And the GL ridging is relaxing but looks up hang in somewhat or possibly reload. Definitely can see how that diving in ends up an east coast bomb day 13-15. See what I see? Damn, I'd like to see that last map verify at lead. That's pretty sweet. Like a pendulum waiting to swing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 I expect good things from eps paywall folks. Here's the free version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I expect good things from eps paywall folks. I counted 27 that give our area good snow over the next 10 days. So, no strong consensus yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 I'm really interested in the day 6 system. Euro didn't nave it but gfs does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I counted 27 that give our area good snow over the next 10 days. So, no strong consensus yet. Think about what you just said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I counted 27 that give our area good snow over the next 10 days. So, no strong consensus yet. Yep. Before the storm window mean is at about .5" and after it jumps to around 3-3.5" area wide. Pretty nice seeing a 2.5" mean for a single storm at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Yep. Before the storm window mean is at about .5" and after it jumps to around 3-3.5" area wide. Pretty nice seeing a 2.5" mean for a single storm at this range. Any clusters of Lows ~hr200? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Damn, I'd like to see that last map verify at lead. That's pretty sweet. Like a pendulum waiting to swing down. Yea I saw that and was like "oh yea" that's a loaded look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Think about what you just said! 27 of 51 is just north of 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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