Wonderdog Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Since it hasn't snowed at all this year, is it not safe to say that the op runs were more accurate than any of the mid to long range ensemble runs so far? Still think the Canadian LP needs to disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Last 3 EPS runs have a persistent ridge over GL through the run. Nice to see that after it completely lost the +heights up top on the Thursday 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Quick note on the 500's that I forgot to mention previously. The ridging into Greenland that is key in our potential storm with forcing the PV southward has come in weaker over the 12Z run. Probably why the 00Z EPS seemed to move away from the possibility of suppression. Also the east coast trough has a better overall look then we saw with the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Since it hasn't snowed at all this year, is it not safe to say that the op runs were more accurate than any of the mid to long range ensemble runs so far? Still think the Canadian LP needs to disappear. Canadian low? Are you talking the PV? That is the key for us to see snow in our region. We need to see that pressed southward by ridging through Greenland otherwise we are SOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Last 3 EPS runs have a persistent ridge over GL through the run. Nice to see that after it completely lost the +heights up top on the Thursday 12z run. It is nice to see. That is probably the major feature on whether we sink or swim over the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Not much support for the op on the GEPS. A lot of cutters. But looking at the big picture, there's still a lot of spread in the NAEFS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Good ens recaps this morning. I sorta expected to wake up and click the eps/gefs panels and watch the good look slip away 12 hours at a time. Lol. I agree that the d8-10 deal has potential to deliver even with a west track. The departing high is pretty cold and is slow to escape for once. The goal posts are going to remain pretty wide for at least another 3 days. It's going to be hard and or fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Did the Euro show anything for the clipper Sunday night into Monday? 6z NAM has something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Did the Euro show anything for the clipper Sunday night into Monday? 6z NAM has something... Euro had a light coating. I mentioned this in the other thread. I am guessing that is the more appropriate place to discuss short term threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 How's the triple phaser looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How's the triple phaser looking? Man I must have missed a lot last night. A good thing I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Man I must have missed a lot last night. A good thing I'm sure. When do you think LWX will issue warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When do you think LWX will issue warnings? Never. or 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said: Never. or 2018 Just so you know, when I post that, I'm making fun of people who ask that ridiculous crap. Back on topic...IMO, the eps and gefs don't offer much support for the latest op runs of each model in the 7-10 period. Others? Your thoughts? I guess that would be a silver lining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 These setups rarely work without a -NAO, even up here, because generally that piece of energy in Canada phases in too early as the "southern" disturbance traverses the Midwest. The few times it doesn't phase in you usually end up with a system that is too weak and suppressed and is more of a mid south or TN Valley system. Once in a great while the timing is perfect but these are usually New England events. The models can headfake these pretty good too because they often miss that Canadian energy phasing in and blowing the system up until inside 108-96v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just so you know, when I post that, I'm making fun of people who ask that ridiculous crap. Back on topic...IMO, the eps and gefs don't offer much support for the latest op runs of each model in the 7-10 period. Others? Your thoughts? I guess that would be a silver lining. It seems at this point any solution is possible but that was probably already covered. I looked at the GEFS mean on tidbits and it did not seem to support the op. It supports the coastal solution. At this range learning from the long time posters here, we should pay attention more to the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just so you know, when I post that, I'm making fun of people who ask that ridiculous crap. Back on topic...IMO, the eps and gefs don't offer much support for the latest op runs of each model in the 7-10 period. Others? Your thoughts? I guess that would be a silver lining. The Op runs are certainly within the realm of reasonable possibility according to their ensembles. Therefore in a sense they do support them. That being said we will most likely see the ops flip back and forth from anywhere to cutters to suppressed solutions and anything in between in the foreseeable future. And this will follow what the models see upstairs with the ridging into Greenland and the corresponding response of the PV. This is well represented within the ensembles with the spread they are showing on the different members solutions. Edit: Though admittedly after looking over the op runs again I will say they both border on the edges of guidance. The GFS with the western extent of the track and the Euro with the very suppressed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 9 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: With pretty colors I loved waking up to see these pretty pink colors over our area! I know it's still in fantasy land, but it was great to see 4 pages of commentary overnight! People have been talking about the good pattern for a storm around Feb 5-10 for quite a while now, so this seems like it has the best potential since the storm that went south (hopefully it's better than that one). I know better than to trust the Ops this far in advance and so I'm glad to hear of some pretty good Ensemble support. How does the Ukie look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: These setups rarely work without a -NAO, even up here, because generally that piece of energy in Canada phases in too early as the "southern" disturbance traverses the Midwest. The few times it doesn't phase in you usually end up with a system that is too weak and suppressed and is more of a mid south or TN Valley system. Once in a great while the timing is perfect but these are usually New England events. The models can headfake these pretty good too because they often miss that Canadian energy phasing in and blowing the system up until inside 108-96v Darn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The Op runs are certainly within the realm of reasonable possibility according to their ensembles. Therefore in a sense they do support them. That being said we will most likely see the ops flip back and forth from anywhere to cutters to suppressed solutions and anything in between in the foreseeable future. And this will follow what the models see upstairs with the ridging into Greenland and the corresponding response of the PV. This is well represented within the ensembles with the spread they are showing on the different members solutions. I don't really agree. For example, the day 9 system on the euro..9 members have the suppressed solution while 23 have a more amped northern solution. This was taken from precip maps, not snow maps. Yes the op is within the realm of possibility but I don't call that strong support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I loved waking up to see these pretty pink colors over our area! I know it's still in fantasy land, but it was great to see 4 pages of commentary overnight! People have been talking about the good pattern for a storm around Feb 5-10 for quite a while now, so this seems like it has the best potential since the storm that went south (hopefully it's better than that one). I know better than to trust the Ops this far in advance and so I'm glad to hear of some pretty good Ensemble support. How does the Ukie look? You know its wrong when it shows a DC jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don't really agree. For example, the day 9 system on the euro..9 members have the suppressed solution while 23 have a more amped northern solution. This was taken from precip maps, not snow maps. Yes the op is within the realm of possibility but I don't call that strong support. Probably missed my edit to that post. 'Edit: Though admittedly after looking over the op runs again I will say they both border on the edges of guidance. The GFS with the western extent of the track and the Euro with the very suppressed look.' And by the way, never mentioned strong support, just that in a sense they did support the feasibility of the solution. So these solutions just can't be thrown out and disregarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 46 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: These setups rarely work without a -NAO, even up here, because generally that piece of energy in Canada phases in too early as the "southern" disturbance traverses the Midwest. The few times it doesn't phase in you usually end up with a system that is too weak and suppressed and is more of a mid south or TN Valley system. Once in a great while the timing is perfect but these are usually New England events. The models can headfake these pretty good too because they often miss that Canadian energy phasing in and blowing the system up until inside 108-96v An early phase would kill us but I'm not as pessimistic. It's not a perfect setup but there is enough blocking up top to displace the PV south to suppress the flow a bit. And we have lower heights to our northeast to create confluence ahead of the system, something we have been lacking. When I dig through h5 analogs of snow here its amazing how having that feature is the most consistent across events more so then pna or nao features. The flow has been progressive most of the year hopefully that helps here too. We don't want the system to come out slow and amped up out west. We will have cold in place and with the confluence the high will be slow to leave unlike every other setup this year. Probably why even the west track solutions try to get some front end snow. If we didn't have that PV lobe displaced in Quebec I would agree this had little chance. But I think there are enough contributing factors that could offset the obvious issue with the trough axis. It's bootleg but there is some blocking leading in. That said I see your point and the flaws and I'm not dismisding that this could go to crap without good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: These setups rarely work without a -NAO, even up here, because generally that piece of energy in Canada phases in too early as the "southern" disturbance traverses the Midwest. The few times it doesn't phase in you usually end up with a system that is too weak and suppressed and is more of a mid south or TN Valley system. Once in a great while the timing is perfect but these are usually New England events. The models can headfake these pretty good too because they often miss that Canadian energy phasing in and blowing the system up until inside 108-96v I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I agree LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 41 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Probably missed my edit to that post. 'Edit: Though admittedly after looking over the op runs again I will say they both border on the edges of guidance. The GFS with the western extent of the track and the Euro with the very suppressed look.' And by the way, never mentioned strong support, just that in a sense they did support the feasibility of the solution. So these solutions just can't be thrown out and disregarded. I agree, nothing is out of the realm. I'd be more concerned though if there had been strong support. You could say split the middle and probably have a decent shot at being close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Pretty big changes at h5 by day 5 on this run of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Pretty big changes at h5 by day 5 on this run of the gfs. Noticed that. Can't see or tell if it will be good or not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 It looks more like 18z at 500 from just clicking back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 And there you go. Another light snow potential. Interesting to track this one as seasonal trends would say this comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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