gymengineer Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In a pattern like this, persistence is key. To win, all you have to do is bet against white (snow). I know the model won't stay the same from here on out, but if you had to bet your life on something, which way would you bet. I'd bet everything on that cutter. Look, it is what it is..no use getting upset. We can't have all 7's on the slot machine every winter. Might as well get this bad one out of the way. I'd love to be wrong and be trolled. I'm not sure people who've been posting in this last fifteen minutes are understanding the reason that the most frequent contributors to this thread are frustrated. It's not because of the lack of snow. And certainly not because of the 0Z GFS run. There's basically no point for this thread to exist anymore. Just read this last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's just a bad winter. We get them every so often. We've been spoiled around here and people freak out when we don't get a blizzard per year. We'll be fine. Agreed. Something that applies to everyone in the eastern USA tbh. Except New England... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's just a bad winter. We get them every so often. We've been spoiled around here and people freak out when we don't get a blizzard per year. We'll be fine. Spoiled indeed...Because actually, prior to the last 3 winters, when was the last time we had 3 consecutive winters that contained a storm of at least a foot? (Ordinarily we gotta wait several years between those!) And 3 consecutive above average snow totals as well? Going into this winter I thought we might be in for a dud (although I haven't lost all hope yet, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017012800&fh=234 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Either way...Do days 8-10 usually jump around like this? Yes. Don't take any single op run too seriously at this time frame. There's a lot of noise. One of the more well-modeled storms in recent years was last year's blizzard, and the best operational model didn't lock onto that until about 6 days before the event. At this range I'd suggest thinking of the op runs as ensemble members with extra weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017012800&fh=234 With pretty colors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Differences at 500 mb between Ukie and gfs at 144... (ukie top). Ukie diggier http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=gfs&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo (Gfs) http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500hv&rh=2017012800&fh=144&r=na&dpdt= meteocentre has a side-by-side comparison feature that I often forget about. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod2=gfs&run2=00&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&lang=en&map=na&stn=PNM&run=00&mod=ukmet&hh=144&comp=2&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&date_type=dateo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 GEFS decent for Day 8 to Day 11... some monster hits in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Wow some people need to calm down. It was one op run. Look at the last gefs run there were several nw tracks like that. It's one option for sure. But the models aren't going to lock in at this range. Ggem looks good. Last run it was north. In the morning we will see what the enables say and the euro and then maybe a trend will emerge. Even then it could flip again tomorrow. One bad winter and we're a bunch of noobs going crazy over every day 9 op run??? Let's get it together. We're better then this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: GEFS decent for Day 8 to Day 11... some monster hits in there E10, E14, or E20 please... monster crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: GEFS decent for Day 8 to Day 11... some monster hits in there Yea, it even better than the 18z gefs. How is that possible after the op rainer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: GEFS decent for Day 8 to Day 11 It's not awful but it trended towards the northern stream getting out ahead. That's not good. 18z the northern stream system was trailing behind more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it even better than the 18z gefs. How is that possible after the op rainer? I have no idea why, but apparently people want this thread to be a duplicate of the Panic Room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it even better than the 18z gefs. How is that possible after the op rainer? Yea that mean I posted was misleading. There are a few absolute bombs that cut to Erie and skew the mean a lot. It's actually better when you look at the individual member low positions. Nice cluster that run right up off the coasts but there are enough cutters to say that option is still there. Back my chill out point though. We're way too far out for the freak outs over a bad op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, gymengineer said: I have no idea why, but apparently people want this thread to be a duplicate of the Panic Room. I know why. It's January 28 and it hasn't snowed yet. That said it's still getting a bit much. We know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Someone's gotta pay the $25/month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 But, it really has snowed. RIC had a really nice snow this year. But I know we are forgotten territoty. But we are okay with that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Certainly encouraging to see this storm in multiple models and at multiple initialization times. At a greater than 7 day lead, As long as it shows up in at least one of the operational models or the EPS or NAEFS ensembles, I'm encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Euro that bad huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Euro that bad huh? Suppressed. Lol at the freak out over rain on the gfs. Euro is a big snow for NC. All options are still on the table and tonight's ops showed all 3 between the gfs ggem euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Suppressed. Lol at the freak out over rain on the gfs. Euro is a big snow for NC. All options are still on the table and tonight's ops showed all 3 between the gfs ggem euro So we just pick the CMC because it is in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 GFS ensembles don't support the op, looks more like 18z IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Suppressed. Lol at the freak out over rain on the gfs. Euro is a big snow for NC. All options are still on the table and tonight's ops showed all 3 between the gfs ggem euro So tonight has basically been like three panels of an ensemble, as opposed to three ops, lol I mean really, how do ya have one show cut, one show suppressed, and one show hit? Lol (Then again, I'm still learning here, so maybe it's a bit more strange to me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So tonight has basically been like three panels of an ensemble, as opposed to three ops, lol I mean really, how do ya have one show cut, one show suppressed, and one show hit? Lol (Then again, I'm still learning here, so maybe it's a bit more strange to me) Because it is 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Because it is 10 days away I'm beginning to realize that, lol I think snow starvation overall is clouding logic in this forum at the moment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Eps look great imo. Certainly moved more toward the idea of a coastal...I'll let someone a little more qualified analyze in depth but from what I see, the 00z run moved in the direction we want. Mean snowfall jumped sig compared to 12z by D10 as well. With that look we are not done with op runs showing some eye candy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Not sure if we can post all the low locations, but for day 8-10 they're are quite a few in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Op 6z looks like a cold front passage. Everything on the menu over the last three runs. Will see what GEFS has to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 No real support for a suppressed storm on the EPS members. I saw 2. There are some nice hits for our general area, and mean snowfall improved over 12z. Given the depicted gradient, there should be less of a chance of a suppressed event. Bigger risk at this point would be a mixed event or mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Looking over the EPS run has shown some improvement across the board over the 12Z for the possibly 10 day storm. Solely looking at the mean pressures they do show a more consolidated look which seems to somewhat favor a low ending up in sweet spot off the coast and then running NNEward. We are also seeing less emphasis on lower pressures in the Midwest and lakes which possibly suggests the models may be moving away from the idea of a cutter and/or Great Lakes low. All in all they have improved but they still leave on the table the possibilities of anything from a cutter to a suppressed system to everything in between. Digging into the individual members somewhat and the overriding theme was that there will be a storm in the east in this time period (only a handful at most really had nothing). The question was how that storm would evolve and the solutions were many and varied. Didn't bother counting each member, so feel free to disprove my following impressions. First off, the idea of a suppressed system so far to the south with little/no impact for our region or a cutter far to the west with little/no impact were by far in the minority. By far the majority of the members showed solutions that ran from slightly suppressed to a cutter riding just to the west of the Appalachians. Roughly half, or a touch more, of these solutions at this time seem to favor a track that runs through the area or just to our west. One thing I found somewhat interesting was that by far, the members wanted to get some sort of measurable into the area one way or the other irregardless of the evolution. And surprisingly enough, with the cold getting locked in, the majority of the heavy hitters we see are actually members that have lows through or to the west of our region. All in all, the EPS members at this time argue for us seeing snow in our region no matter what. Just a question of how much. Quick look at the snowfall means for the region shows an uptick of an inch for this time period over the 12Z. A little over half the members show 2 inches or more for the metro regions with many of those actually being fairly significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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