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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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57 minutes ago, PhatStorm said:

That was my senior year in high school, Tazewell Virginia. My memory is we were out of school the entire month of January and another 2 weeks of February due to snow almost daily. They tacked on an extra hour of school each day for a least the last month and we had graduation around the 3rd week of June.

You were up on that plateau and were fed by the nw flow of cold off the Lakes. And it was cold that winter, no doubt,  just snow starved in these parts until 3 big storms over 3 weeks capped off bt PDI. 

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I'm cautiously optimistic about the day-10 storm.  Since the 12z Monday run, some sort of storm has been showing up on the GFS nearly every run, and it's also showing up on the Euro and GGEM now that they are in range.  The ensembles have indicated a stormy period around Feb 5th for a while.  That's a good signal that there will be a storm, and indications are that there will also be cold air in the vicinity.  At this range we can't ask for much more than that.  Obviously a lot can go wrong (rain appears to be the biggest risk), but it's a good look.  If nothing else, we'll have something to track for a while.

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If it goes "poof" again....I call conspiracy. Somebody's messin' with the models just to send us all to the asylum!!!! But it's gotta be something....4 global models agreeing today? That would just be too cruel for that to just vanish, lol

saw that and yeah, its been quite some time since we've seen continuity.  Hoping trend continues.

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2 hours ago, PhatStorm said:

That was my senior year in high school, Tazewell Virginia. My memory is we were out of school the entire month of January and another 2 weeks of February due to snow almost daily. They tacked on an extra hour of school each day for a least the last month and we had graduation around the 3rd week of June.

nice to hear of a fellow southwest virginian! It's also fun to see the tennessee valley, mid-atlantic, and southeast forums all reacting to this run. haha

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I don't think the d9-11 period will go poof from having an organized precip event in the east half of the conus. There's a ton of agreement there and the wheels are in motion by d5-6. However, there is plenty of risk of plain rain, light event, or even a whiff south or west.  

Ops will probably spit out all those alternatives the next few days. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't think the d9-11 period will go poof from having an organized precip event in the east half of the conus. There's a ton of agreement there and the wheels are in motion by d5-6. However, there is plenty of risk of plain rain, light event, or even a whiff south or west.  

Ops will probably spit out all those alternatives the next few days. 

 

So what you are saying is find the antacids.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't think the d9-11 period will go poof from having an organized precip event in the east half of the conus. There's a ton of agreement there and the wheels are in motion by d5-6. However, there is plenty of risk of plain rain, light event, or even a whiff south or west.  

Ops will probably spit out all those alternatives the next few days. 

 

If the evolution remains similar one of the keys will be the timing of the northern and southern stream systems. We want the southern stream out ahead. By itself it can get it done like the euro. The gfs has a partial phase at the perfect time. Ggem races the northern stream ahead and so it goes north. Faster southern stream slower northern is a good combo. 

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the evolution remains similar one of the keys will be the timing of the northern and southern stream systems. We want the southern stream out ahead. By itself it can get it done like the euro. The gfs has a partial phase at the perfect time. Ggem races the northern stream ahead and so it goes north. Faster southern stream slower northern is a good combo. 

No doubt on the SS out in front. The other way around destroys the mid levels when it counts. Ensembles clearly show a ns low near the lakes on the means so it's worrisome to an extent but timing is on our side to take advantage of the departing cold hp. 

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