WVclimo Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Go big or go home. Let's just hammer the next 6 weeks with frigid cold and snow. Starting March 16, let's hit 65 and see sun for 55 of the next 60. You are obviously not into gardening. Rain in April and May is critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, WVclimo said: You are obviously not into gardening. Rain in April and May is critical. I gave you 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I gave you 5 days. Lol, thanks. Hopefully one day each week, and an inch of rain each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Any concerns about the LP in Canada in 9 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Any concerns about the LP in Canada in 9 days? No we don't worry about such things. It's going to snow and we are drunk. Aren't we? Maybe just me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Wow finally a threat on an before 384. Let's get this thing down to 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 18z gefs jumped on board. Strong consensus for a low coming up from the TN valley. West track rain risk is definitely there but another ens run showing a legit threat in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs jumped on board. Strong consensus for a low coming up from the TN valley. West track rain risk is definitely there but another ens run showing a legit threat in the books. It was a weenie run start to finish. Strong support for the day 10 window. Holds the block long enough to set the stage. Then it reloads for another window say 13-16. Best run of the year from a legit threat standpoint. And where the snow mean is from 1-2 events and snow not ice. We had a couple runs with similar snow back in dec but they were spread over 4-5 storms and most was ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Did the the models have last years blizzard 10 days out. I can not remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Did the the models have last years blizzard 10 days out. I can not remember. IIRC they had it, lost it for a day, then it was locked in from day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It was a weenie run start to finish. Strong support for the day 10 window. Holds the block long enough to set the stage. Then it reloads for another window say 13-16. Best run of the year from a legit threat standpoint. And where the snow mean is from 1-2 events and snow not ice. We had a couple runs with similar snow back in dec but they were spread over 4-5 storms and most was ice. It's been a good day. Ens have converged on the scand/gl ridge hanging tough. It's not a real -nao but it's a good feature combined with the ridge in the SW. Looks like we are heading towards an extended gradient look. It's not cold this far south but cold lurks close enough and a steady stream of shortwaves punching into the pac nw heading downhill towards us. I'm not picky. I'll take anything. Mixed event. Lighter event. Big event that melts quick. Idgaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Pretty good agreement between gefs and eps with a several threat window in the 8-15. It's a rare agreement (this season) between the two on the overall pattern and threats. What a bipolar hobby. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was a weenie run start to finish. Strong support for the day 10 window. Holds the block long enough to set the stage. Then it reloads for another window say 13-16. Best run of the year from a legit threat standpoint. And where the snow mean is from 1-2 events and snow not ice. We had a couple runs with similar snow back in dec but they were spread over 4-5 storms and most was ice. Based on seasonal trends, I am guessing e17 will be closest to actual verification. Seriously tho, the NW trend can stop already. Meh, what am I thinking, what can possibly go wrong? The current pattern supports this....there's confluence and stuff. Ok, Im all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Queue Lucy....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's been a good day. Ens have converged on the scand/gl ridge hanging tough. It's not a real -nao but it's a good feature combined with the ridge in the SW. Looks like we are heading towards an extended gradient look. It's not cold this far south but cold lurks close enough and a steady stream of shortwaves punching into the pac nw heading downhill towards us. I'm not picky. I'll take anything. Mixed event. Lighter event. Big event that melts quick. Idgaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Boom! j/k...kinda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 while often frowned upon as its weenieism at its finest..... sue me...its something we all havent seen for some time. Enjoy every flake of it. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 The ensembles showed a good pattern at 16 days out, more and more ensemble members started ahowing significant snow in the the 9-16 day window, now 10 days out the ops and ensembles have converged on a specific storm threat. You have to like the progression of things here. At least we should have an active week of tracking model runs and the typical suicides with every model run that shows some level of taint in and around dc. Suddenly it feels like winter. Cheers! Pours a glass of amwx's finest bourbon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: while often frowned upon as its weenieism at its finest..... sue me...its something we all havent seen for some time. Enjoy every flake fake of it. Nut Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Fixed lol... I'm as your tag says....riding it (cause its all i got to ride). I can imagine how this place lights up if the 0z's and weekend starts to latch onto this and trends once again become our friend. Pattern supports it, so while not surprising, I'm still rather surprised, as were all ready to bury this ratter. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 I think if you project out that the SREF to 240 hours they would support the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhatStorm Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: For those old enough to remember, 78/79 was not all that different snow wise. Yes it was colder than this winter, but aside from 3-4" from a system that passed near Chicago Thanksgiving week, there was no snow of significance until the end of January through PDI. Then winter was done and warmth ensued. That was my senior year in high school, Tazewell Virginia. My memory is we were out of school the entire month of January and another 2 weeks of February due to snow almost daily. They tacked on an extra hour of school each day for a least the last month and we had graduation around the 3rd week of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 So, I saw the MJO plots posted earlier, and while for the last week they've showed mostly no strong signal and just eeking out of the COD, today run shows solid progression into 1. Can anyone suggest what may cause the sudden shift? Was it noise given the tellies? Trying to wrap my head around this. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 How is the downstream blocking looking. Is there a solid 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 35 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Boom! j/k...kinda So you are saying there is a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 27 minutes ago, PhatStorm said: That was my senior year in high school, Tazewell Virginia. My memory is we were out of school the entire month of January and another 2 weeks of February due to snow almost daily. They tacked on an extra hour of school each day for a least the last month and we had graduation around the 3rd week of June. Hey, fellow sw Virginian. It was the same in wise co. 5 consecutive weeks missed. Same added hour and Saturday school to make it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, pasnownut said: So, I saw the MJO plots posted earlier, and while for the last week they've showed mostly no strong signal and just eeking out of the COD, today run shows solid progression into 1. Can anyone suggest what may cause the sudden shift? Was it noise given the tellies? Trying to wrap my head around this. Nut No idea what causes the shift but am becoming more convinced that the MJO is what's playing havoc with the long range modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: No idea what causes the shift but am becoming more convinced that the MJO is what's playing havoc with the long range modeling. Yeah i think you may be onto something as with no overwhelming signal its just sortof a crap shoot. Lets hope its not just a blip. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 36 minutes ago, yoda said: So you are saying there is a chance... Holy crap. I live in that imaginary not gonna happen purple shaded box. Time for more booze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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