stormtracker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a moisture laden crushing. 6" otg @ hr240 and it's probably not even half over. No temp issues. But we all know in 12 hours it's gone. But what about 120 hours from now? heh You have to admit, for op models @ d8 range, this is pretty unusual... GFS: Euro: CMC: Even the JMA: Yeah, I see it. And it's nice that the general idea is on all the major models...but still...just being honest, I'm not even remotely interested because I know what happens next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 You could only sell a d5+ op run to a fool. Let's nail this clipper first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 My guess is actually having a block pinning a vortex in se Canada is the reason for unusual consensus @ d8. One of the reasons ops and ens have been incredibly jumpy all year is because we've never had a stable pattern. It's always been a progression. Yea, the AK ridge has been semi stable at times but everything else has been in flux. Without a anything to slow lw features down from moving all around, it's hardly surprising that we haven't been able to hold on to anything long range. Now that we have something that can slow thing down and hold things in place in the east conus, we're starting to see more stable op/ens runs over the med range. I'm not talking about locking into specific shortwaves @ d8+ leads. Just that the features that can steer shortwaves are making things a little more predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You could only sell a d5+ op run to a fool. Let's nail this clipper first. Now yer talkin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nobody really gave specifics, but Matt just texted me the face, so it must be legit good. Verbatim we'd probably flip, but we'd be pasted first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Clipper on Euro gives some of us 1"+...maybe we need a thread tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Clipper on Euro gives some of us 1"+...maybe we need a thread tomorrow. Waiting to get RGEM'ed first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, I don't want to sell anything. Just looking for intelligent conversation now that there is something actually worth having an intelligent conversation over again. For all we know a vort can slip into the flow in between the dry clipper and fantasy d10 snow bomb. The next 10+ days are discussion worthy. The longest period of favorable ingredients we've had all season by quite a margin. I just want to get a full inch of snow out of one event. There's my bar. Oh I'm not trying to sell that it's going to snow. But that the setup isn't crazy or some no hope thing just because we have had an awful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 This is the type of LR Euro Lucy threat setup where all focus goes to day 9-10 and yet we end up with a larger event in the short/mid range after all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is the type of LR Euro Lucy threat setup where all focus goes to day 9-10 and yet we end up with a larger event in the short/mid range after all is said and done. Or even more ironic if Feb turned epic after all. You never know. It is still January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I showed yesterday how the upper pattern actually could support a better trend. As bob keeps pointing out while it's transient we do actually get nao blocking this time. Probably only last 4-5 days but that's all we need to get one threat window. Now we need luck too. The blocking displacing the PV argues for a south track not a cutter. We have some things in place this time we have lacked all winter. Could things trend the wrong way sure. Blocking could break down faster. System could stall out west too long and we lose the setup before it comes out. This is still a long ways out. But the setup is sound and a classic way we get snow and the pattern that leads to it gets in motion soon enough to believe it may be real. I'm not saying this is it. We're getting snow. But this might be our best overall setup of the winter so far. That's not saying much. So overall, it seems like transient shots like this are what we may have to rely on the rest of this winter, huh? Just need to catch something at just the right time....Because it seems like the overall pattern this winter is as hostile to our chances this year as the raging Niño was last year (Feels like the unexpected QBO is monkey wrench this season instead of the Niño, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: If you're making decisions about d8-10 threats using op models then you are using the wrong tools. Thank you for clearing this up Bob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 EPS is the typical mixed bag d8-10 but is mildly supportive of the op as opposed to no support. The whole d8+ period looks good in general for increased chances at getting more than a dusting to an inch. CAD is definitely in play. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS is the typical mixed bag d8-10 but is mildly supportive of the op as opposed to no support. The whole d8+ period looks good in general for increased chances at getting more than a dusting to an inch. CAD is definitely in play. That's for sure. I've been leaning towards the following week for something decent since I posted in the analog thread and still am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS is the typical mixed bag d8-10 but is mildly supportive of the op as opposed to no support. The whole d8+ period looks good in general for increased chances at getting more than a dusting to an inch. CAD is definitely in play. That's for sure. Mildly supportive works right now. Like the CAD look. Doesn't have to be just snow. I like ice too. Beats a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 The clipper is a no on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: It's a moisture laden crushing. 6" otg @ hr240 and it's probably not even half over. No temp issues. But we all know in 12 hours it's gone. But what about 120 hours from now? heh You have to admit, for op models @ d8 range, this is pretty unusual... GFS: Euro: CMC: Even the JMA: What's unusual exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: What's unusual exactly? The fact that there is such across-the-board agreement with the big features 10 days out on all of those OP runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Eps is a straight weenie run. Lol. Enjoy it while it lasts or snows. One or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, BTRWx said: What's unusual exactly? How many times have you seen 4 global ops have the same features that might produce snow at 8 day leads so far this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, TowsonWeather said: The fact that there is such across-the-board agreement with the big features 10 days out on all of those OP runs. Is that not a Midwest ridge? I'm not trying to downplay anything, just looking for details. What's to like about those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Eps is a straight weenie run. Lol. Enjoy it while it lasts or snows. One or the other. Pretty stout with the Sun/Mon event. Would feel better if it was the GFS showing this with its better handling of NS features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The clipper is a no on the NAM. Probably a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: How many times have you seen 4 global ops have the same features that might produce snow at 8 day leads so far this winter? What are the features? That's what I want to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: Is that not a Midwest ridge? I'm not trying to downplay anything, just looking for details. What's to like about those maps? With the low heights over the ne and the screaming flow off the coast, if you don't have some ridging you have no chance of anything coming north enough to produce meaningful precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: Is that not a Midwest ridge? I'm not trying to downplay anything, just looking for details. What's to like about those maps? All 4 have confluence overhead, a nao ridge, and vortex pinned in se Canada. Some of the most basic and imortant ingredients to get snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All 4 have confluence overhead, a nao ridge, and vortex pinned in se Canada. Some of the most basic and imortant ingredients to get snow here. Thank you. I'll have to take everyone's word for it. I'm honestly having trouble seeing the nao ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 fwiw 12 hours ago the NAO was modeled to spike. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png but then there's this! The first chart shows the MJO potentially heading towards phase 8 near the end of the forecast period. This is exactly what we want to see in mid-February! We just need to be able to speed through and slow down at the tail just enough through the torchy phases 6 and 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eps is a straight weenie run. Lol. Enjoy it while it lasts or snows. One or the other. SE crew seem to be less enthused about the EPS. Must be the CAD signature for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 "Come inside. Take a seat on my couch. Now let's talk about how you spend time talking about something you say won't happen in a thread devoted to said something you say is a waste of time". We need an intervention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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